Restoring the Soviet Shadow: Putin’s Long-Term Strategy for Reclaiming Global Power
DINO GARNER
2X Pulitzer Prize Nominee. Army Ranger. NY Times Bestselling Ghostwriter & Editor. Biophysicist.
A Man Trapped in the Echoes of a Forgotten Empire
There is a man in Russia who doesn’t sleep well. He spends a lot of time squatting down like a defeated child, appearing to be thinking, but he knows nothing of thinking or cognition. Instead, he broods like the atavism he doesn't realize he is.
His name is Vladimir Putin. He runs a country that used to be larger than it is now. Though a functioning moron, somehow he knows that. He misses the old Soviet Union. He wants it back. He wants to make Russia into the empire it once was, when the Soviet Union’s flimsy shadow loomed across Eastern Europe and beyond. Putin talks about history like it’s a lost dog that needs finding. He thinks it will come back if he wishes hard enough. or maybe whistles through a loudspeaker. Maybe if he bleeds for it. Maybe if the world bleeds for it.
This isn’t about nostalgia. It’s about perceived power. And power, for men like Putin, is a dark and simple thing. It’s about land and guns and fear. He knows what fear is. He learned it as a young man in the KGB, a guy who wasn't permitted to become a true leader like Stalin, because Putin is, well, not as intelligent as Stalin.
Stalin, for all his apparent thuggery, was a smart and thinking man, ruthless to the core, but smart. As for Putin, they allow men like him to rule countries, long as they obey their masters' marching orders and don't step out of line.
Fear makes men easy to control, something the power-brokers wield like the sword of lightning. Though Putin lacks certain smarts, he is just human enough to understand fear and to avoid whatever he fears.
As a leader, Putin has spent his whole life learning how to control defenseless people. Now he’s trying to control history. He’s not interested in playing fair, something I admire because he essentially has a one-bullet ROE (Rules of Engagement): Anything goes. Putin knows there is no fair in his world. Only victory and defeat.
Putin wants to bring back the Soviet Union’s ghost. He wants Russia to be feared again, not just respected. And the world watches him, wondering what he’ll do next. He doesn’t care. He’s already moving. Men like Putin don’t wait.
Historical Context and Putin’s Ideological Foundations
It began with a collapse. The Soviet Union, which had stood like a red colossus over half the world, fell apart in 1991. Moscow was left with empty hands, a cold winter, and no empire. They lost the Baltics. They lost Ukraine. They lost everything that mattered. For Putin, that collapse wasn’t just a defeat—it was a humiliation.
He was young then, working in East Germany, another broken piece of a broken empire. He watched from the shadows. The wall came down, and there wasn’t a thing he could do about it. Men like Putin remember things like that. The shame sticks to them. It fuels them. It makes them want to fight back.
By the time Putin took over Russia in 1999, the country was a wreck. It was weak, corrupt, and reeling from the chaos of the Yeltsin years. But Putin, with his dead eyes and cold hands, didn’t want to rebuild a broken country. He wanted to revive an empire. The Soviet Union had been brutal, but it was feared. And Putin believed that fear was the strongest kind of respect. So, he set out to restore Russia’s place in the world, not by building something new, but by dragging the past up from its grave.
Putin doesn’t talk much about the future. He’s too focused on what was lost. That’s the man’s curse. He sees the Soviet Union’s old borders, and he wants them back. His speeches are full of bitter words about Western betrayal, NATO’s encroachment, and the lost glory of Mother Russia. He’s made it his mission to bring that glory back, even if he has to burn the world to do it.
Strategic Goals of Putin’s Geopolitical Ambitions
Putin isn’t subtle. He doesn’t believe in subtlety. The world may think he’s playing some complicated chess game, but the truth is simpler than that. Putin wants one thing—control. And to get it, he needs the old Soviet satellites back under Russia’s thumb. That’s the heart of his strategy.
Ukraine has long been entangled in the geopolitical ambitions of both the Soviet Union and Russia, often used as a pawn in their broader struggles for dominance in Eastern Europe. For many decades, Ukraine’s sovereignty was undermined, its political and cultural identity suppressed to fit within the larger framework of Soviet control.
During World War II, this subjugation led to a complicated and tragic chapter in Ukrainian history, where some Ukrainians, seeking a way out of Soviet oppression, aligned themselves with Nazi forces. This alignment was not universal but reflected the desperation of those who saw the Germans as a temporary ally against their Soviet occupiers, despite the horrific consequences of Nazi ideology.
It’s a deeply complex history, marked by shifting loyalties, brutal occupation, and a long-standing struggle for self-determination amidst the pressure from larger, more powerful neighbors.
Reviving Russia’s Sphere of Influence in Former Soviet States
The old Soviet republics aren’t just memories for Putin. They’re vital pieces of his plan to make Russia strong again. Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia—these places were once part of the empire. Now they’re independent, but they’re not free. Not as long as Putin’s alive.
Belarus is still loyal, with its dictator Lukashenko clinging to power like a drowning man. But Ukraine and Georgia? They’ve slipped away. And that’s what keeps Putin up at night. It started with Georgia in 2008. A little war. A warning shot. Putin rolled his tanks in, and the world blinked, but it didn’t act. That’s when he knew he could do more. And so he pushed the envelope a little further . . . and got away with it.
Ukraine came next. Crimea was taken in 2014 without a real fight. A neat operation, a perfect show of force. And then Eastern Ukraine—the war that’s still raging while the West wrings its hands and offers stern words. Putin isn’t interested in words. He’s interested in action. And he acts.
Countering NATO Expansion
NATO is the ghost Putin can’t kill. The Western alliance has crept closer to Russia’s borders year by year, and it drives Putin mad. He sees it as an insult, a threat. NATO took in former Soviet countries like the Baltics and Poland, and every time it did, Putin’s rage grew.
Though Putin is a moron, he isn’t altogether stupid. He knows he can’t take on NATO head-on, not yet. So, he plays a different game. Military exercises on NATO’s doorstep, buzzing NATO airspace with jets, ordering his fighter pilots to perform dangerous aerial maneuvers against American F-16s out of Alaska, building up his forces in Kaliningrad. All of it designed to make the West nervous. He wants them to know he’s ready, that he’s willing to do whatever it takes to keep them out of what he sees as his backyard.
Securing Russia’s Place in the Global Energy Market
Energy is the one card Putin can play that the West can’t ignore. Russia’s oil and gas flow like blood through Europe’s veins and Putin knows it. He controls the taps, and when Europe needs warmth in the winter, they have to turn to him. It’s power. And Putin thrives on power.
The Nord Stream pipelines to Germany are a symbol of that control. Europe might talk about sanctions, about isolating Russia, but when the cold sets in, Putin has what they need. It’s his greatest weapon, one that doesn’t require bullets or bombs. Just patience. Just waiting for the cold.
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Tools of Power: Putin’s Methods to Reclaim Influence
Putin’s tools aren’t new. They’re old and bloody, sharpened by centuries of warfare and deception. But in his hands, they’re as deadly as ever. He uses the military when he has to, energy when he can, and lies always. His old Soviet propaganda machine is still well oiled and operating at full capacity.
The ghost of Cold War Soviet propagandist-turned "defector," Yuri Bezmenov hovers over the Kremlin, ensuring the system he helped build is well maintained. It is, more than ever, as evidenced by Russian influence in US elections, injection of fake news into US mainstream news media, etc.
Military Modernization and Intervention
After the 2008 war in Georgia, Putin knew his military needed an overhaul. It was weak, outdated. So, he poured money into it, rebuilt it from the ground up. Now, Russia’s military is leaner, faster, deadlier. The world saw what it could do in Crimea, and then again in Syria. Putin’s men fight dirty, but they win. That’s all that matters. And when $10 Ukrainian drones drop deadly potato bombs on the heads of Russian soldiers, Putin calls up more reserves. One wonders where he gets all those unwilling recruits.
The Crimea operation was a masterstroke of hybrid warfare—Russian soldiers without insignia, stirring up chaos, seizing control without a shot fired. Putin learned from that. He’s perfected it. Now, his forces in Eastern Ukraine use the same tactics, hiding in the shadows, fighting without uniforms, leaving their enemies guessing.
Syria was a different kind of war, a chance for Putin to show the world that Russia could still project power far from home. He threw his weight behind Assad, bombed cities into dust, and made sure Russia had a foothold in the Middle East. The world saw the blood and the rubble, and they knew: Russia was back. Well, sort of.
Economic and Energy Influence
Energy is Putin’s long game. It doesn’t explode or bleed, but it’s just as effective. Russia’s economy is tied to its oil and gas, and Putin has weaponized that dependence. Europe can’t cut itself off from Russian energy without suffering, and Putin uses that leverage to his advantage.
His relationship with China is another tool. The West thought sanctions would cripple Russia, but Putin pivoted. He turned to China, made deals, built pipelines. Now, China and Russia are closer than ever. For now. And the West? They’re still wondering if they’ve done enough to stop him. Because the West is far from stopping China on any front. After all, without Chinese imports, companies like Amazon and Walmart would go bust.
Soft Power and Disinformation Campaigns
The lies are as old as war. Putin doesn’t just fight with guns. He fights with words. Russian state media like RT and Sputnik churn out propaganda day and night, poisoning minds, spreading disinformation. It’s not just about making Russia look strong. It’s about making the West look weak.
Putin’s hackers are another weapon. They don’t need to be seen to be effective. Elections in the US, in Europe—Putin’s fingerprints are all over them. Cyberattacks, fake news, social media manipulation—it’s all part of the plan. Keep the West divided, keep them unsure, and Russia stays strong. If Americans weren't so damned gullible, Putin's tactics would not be effective. We are sometimes our own worst enemy, often letting the wolves inside the fence.
Challenges and Limitations of Putin’s Strategy
But even Putin isn’t invincible. His strategy has cracks in it. His country has cracks in it. And one day, those cracks might break him.
Russia’s economy is a mess. It’s too dependent on oil and gas, and when the price of oil drops, so does Russia’s fortune. The sanctions have hurt, too. They’ve made it harder for Russia to modernize its industries, to compete on the global stage.
Putin tries to hold it all together, but even he knows the economy is fragile. And that fragility limits his ambitions. A poor country can’t build an empire. And Putin’s Russia is poorer than he’d like the world to believe. Not even the powerful Russian propaganda machine can't hide this fact. Have you traveled to Russia lately?
International Isolation
The West hasn’t stood by and watched quietly. They’ve pushed back. Sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, NATO strengthening its borders—it’s all added up. Russia is more isolated than it’s been since the Cold War, and while Putin can shrug that off for now, isolation is a slow poison.
His alliances with countries like China and Iran might help him for now, but they aren’t enough. Russia needs the West. And the West is closing its doors. Plus, with the sudden rise in all things AI, the West is quickly accelerating ahead of Russia.
Unrest in Former Soviet States
Putin’s grip on his neighbors isn’t as strong as he’d like. Ukraine is fighting back, with or without Western help. Belarus, while loyal for now, could change, especially if some mercenary takes out its dictator Lukashenko. And the other former Soviet states? They’re watching, waiting for a moment of weakness.
The more Putin pushes, the more resistance he faces. The more blood he sheds, the more his enemies rally against him. And in the end, that might be his undoing.
Putin's Chasing Ghosts
Putin wants the Soviet Union back, or at least something that resembles it. He wants a world where Russia is feared, where its borders are secure, where the West trembles at the thought of challenging him. But the world doesn’t work that way anymore. Putin’s playing a dangerous game, and he is only beginning to understand it.
He’ll keep pushing. He’ll keep fighting. But even he knows that time is running out. His country is too weak, too isolated, too broken. And in the end, even a man like Vladimir Putin can’t bring conjure up the past.
The Soviet shadow has faded. And no matter how much blood is spilled, no matter how many lies are told, it won’t return. Not fully. Not in the way Putin dreams of. That’s the curse of men like him. They can’t let go of what’s already gone.
Russia may fight, but history doesn’t bend easily. Not even for men like Putin.
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