Restoring rule of law and more…

Current affairs in Ethiopia and its real cause thereof seems to have been lost in the narratives. In fact most commentators, journalists in both the local and the international sphere; I have found them to be biased and shallow in their understanding of the state of the Ethiopian federation. More often than I would like to admit, analysts have focused on the results of what is a deeper problem than what actually drives those on all sides of the conflict. Today is a result of what was simmering inside an earth-oven. Moreover, many miss the Wax and Gold in each of the steps, back and forth, and the failed diplomacy attempts that have led us here. Analyzing contemporary Ethiopia and its political issues without understanding the culture and evolution of its politics, culture of communication, culture of mutual distrust, and culture of adherence to hierarchy would be fatalistic or at best will result in a skimpy analyses. Many analysists, Ethiopians included, especially those that have lived abroad for long – have a misconstrued notion on the facts. As in many in the diaspora or recently returned, Ethiopians assume that cultures, assumptions, opinions and trends remain the same as when they were living in their home nations. Ethiopia and Ethiopians have moved miles away from where they use to be, even in my lifetime. Here is why and together is my view from within and up close.

The TPLF/EPRDF is a common term that I will use. This term indicates a TPLF led EPRDF for many readers. However, the extent to which TPLF controlled (pervasively possessed) EPRDF, one can easily argue that EPRDF didn’t exist. EPRDF, although a “front” coalition of four main ethnically organized parties; its birth, ideology, and nurturing came from the TPLF and its deep Marxism–Leninism ideologies. Unless one subscribed willfully or through various means of coercion was caused to agree and “become baptized” in the Ethiopian-ist hating, ethnicity and division loving, Amhara-hating ideology; one did not survive within TPLF/EPRDF. And so, for practical purposes, TPLF was EPRDF and all EPRDF was TPLF; and that stood on a solid ground until at least 2005. The state building exercise through consensus, common future, and se3tting the foundation for creating a political-economic-social order for Ethiopians was cut short because of the pervasively possessive nature of TPLF/EPRDF. Through various policies and practices, TPLF/EPRDF aborted any and all potential for establishing an effective trust-based relationship between the state and society. The social contract was torn way before there was lift-off. The state and society never had a meaningful political process broad and deep enough to arrive at a political settlement. This resulted in a rampant creation of elites in the political, social, and economic fora; sidelining the majority and creating a system of authoritarianism evolving rapidly towards totalitarianism. With poor accountability of individuals to institutions and laws, the states capability and responsiveness to effectively perform its principal state functions deteriorated over a period of a quarter of a century; destroying long standing ethical and moral principles and standards within the civil service and the bureaucracy. This effectively led into grievances from the public that widely spread across the country due to unmet expectations. TPLF/EPRDF ultimately neither recovered from the syndrome it created, nor did it produce a meaningful means of improving the state-society relations.  

It is surprising that TPLF now is painting itself as the protector and guardian of the federalist ideology for Ethiopia. During its tenure as a leader of all things in Ethiopia – social, political and economic – TPLF has completely usurped all power of regional and federal government’s into its party apparatus. TPLF not only dismantled the entire bureaucratic culture of Ethiopia built and sustained over hundred years of state government under the monarchy and the Derg; but replaced it with something poisonous – the party apparatus. No matter how one saw TPLF/EPRDF – it was clear that the party was stronger than the state and it asserted its authority through its cronies in all ethnically organized parties within the collation as well as those sidelined ethnic parties that TPLF sponsored to indirectly govern those regions/states. Until the 2005 election, TPLF had its battle hardened, ideologically uncompromising, class struggle ideology oriented, and constantly vilified the Amhara – “revolutionary democrat” cadres in all regions at critical positons – advising (some will say spying on) regional presidents, regional finance bureaus, regional security bureaus, and other key areas within the federal ministries, regional governments and city administrations.

An indication to how much the TPLF was in charge in both political and civic life of Ethiopia is its own party manifesto that clearly labeled the Amhara as the enemy of Tigrayans and Ethiopians. In all the 27/8 years that TPLF was at the helm of power, no other member of the organization openly addressed this hateful and malicious party manifesto. Even the Amhara that were members of the EPRDF were not successful (if they at all tried) to challenge TPLF on this issue. This is ultimately the basis of the doubt for the Amhara people to continue to question the legitimacy of the ANDM/ADP a member of the collation EPRDF as a party to guard the interest of the Amhara people in the federation.

TPLF = TPLF/EPRDF enjoyed a supremacy in all aspects of life in Ethiopia. TPLF used state machinery at the region and federal levels to silence all dissent, quell all reason, and continue to benefit out of the sweat and labor of Ethiopians. Under TPLFs guard party networks benefited from the system. TPLF created an elite group from across ethic lines distributing state resources or access thereof to selected individuals and groups. Thousands of hectares of farm land, mining rights, investment loans, and other key aspects of the economy were provided to allies of TPLF. Under their leadership Ethiopia lost over USD$15 billion in elicit financial flows; through kickbacks, international procurement fraud, over and under invoicing and other tools at their disposal. TPLF and its ideological allies from all ethnic groups of Ethiopia went on a personal gain spree with public resources. TPLF used EFFORT, an Endowment for the Tigrayan people to benefit few at the helm of TPLF – inside the regional and federal power structures. TPLF used the federal government executive authority, the federal parliament and house of federation to advance their party/personal agenda with no regard to rule of law, human rights, inclusion, transparency, or accountability.

All the while the public outcry, the civil society outcry, the international community outcry for fairness and citizen empowerment and engagement was disregarded. Ethiopians, including the large majority of Tigrayans watched in silence. Many spoke, advocated and stood against the tyranny of TPLF/EPRDF and paid the ultimate price with their lives. Many were disappeared. Thousands were tortured. Countless perished in prisons and military camps. The outcry finally resolved with a critical mass of young people, across the country – in all fairness not just the Oromo youth – accumulated the critical mass needed to tilt the balance of silence. April 2018 resolved that TPLF/EPRDF was no more. The cup was full. What came to be exposed to the public in 2018 about the abuses – in economic, social, and political arena – was all too well known by many. The atrocities TPLF presided over were deeply concerning and any and all remnants of TPLF/EPRDF wound not stand a chance in political space within Ethiopia.

There were claims by TPLF that there was scapegoating and a disproportionate legal action against affiliates and or members of the TPLF in the months that followed PM Abiy’s crackdown on corruption, state resource mismanagement, and human rights abuses. It is funny that TPLF believed that this was disproportionate at all. Where will you find others to arrest when all key positons and sector of interest for the state were tightly held by TPLF cadres and Tigrayan Ethiopians to safeguard its government apparatus? Over 25 years of leadership with deep distrust of “the other” results in having key positions occupied by trust built across ethnic lines. The result is the broom would only sweep what was found, and so it swept across and took out many TPLF or Tigrayans from the system. Some were just let go honorably, and some needed to account either for lives lost or resources siphoned.

The extent of the finding during the transition of power was altogether too much for PM Abiy’s government to continue on the path of a reform on the same boat with TPLF and EPRDF. That is what I think led the PM Abiy to create a new party to move away from TPLF/EPRDF reputation. In that effort, PM Abiy attempted to salvage what he could from TPLF/EPRDF – misjudging completely that the party was the state, and the state was not the party and so the state was inexistent without the party. His attempt to re-baptism of his fellow party men collapsed miserably. His desire to reengage with foreign based political parties, inviting them to Ethiopia, and allowing them to exercise their hateful politics that was no better than the TPLF created an ideological warfare within the ruling elite that was eating PM Abiy and his government from the inside.

April 2018 ushered in a hope for a new beginning in Ethiopia. In the months that followed, PM Abiy’s government openly admitted to the atrocities that the party caused, asked for forgiveness and assumed that it was granted by the Ethiopian public. As one who joined EPRDF at a young age, the PM was raised in the backyard of the TPLF ideology. Although he appears and argues for an ideology that is poles apart, he would be expected to know what capabilities exist within TPLF to support or stand against his success. Having been part of the armed forces, having served within the intelligence, and having had a civilian role in the regional and federal government; one would think he knows his way around. Over the months that followed April 2018; I would argue that he is still learning. His action revealed that there was mismatch between PM Abiy’s desire to be accepted and loved and what needed to be done to allow law and order to prevail. Even when there was a blatant attempt on his life, compromise the national interest, national security, and threat to lives of millions of Ethiopians, displacement caused by many in various parts of the country – his actions, leadership was anything but competent. It only appeared to get worse from there.

To make matters worse, his invitation of the opposition – civilian and armed – back to Ethiopia significantly backfired. Soon, the PM found out that many within Ethiopia didn’t see the same future that he saw for the nation. Everyone within their rights to hold disagreeable views – but old habits die hard. Those that were in the armed struggle left the table to grab their AK-47s. Battle ravaged Oromia. Those with means and strategy used technology and skills they have acquired over the years leading opposition from abroad supported local clicks to join them in their dissent. They provided financial and logistical support to the PM’s opposition. To make matters worse, around the same time as some of the political differences were rising to the surface, arrest warrants were issues for senior TPLF cadres and politburo members. If TPLF was standing on one leg after the notion of being sidelined, the arrest warrants cut the other leg. TPLF refused to hand over and arrogantly temporarily detained federal police with the warrant in Mekele airport and disgracefully returned them barehanded. TPLF cronies were implicated in many parts of the country where conflict and instability became a daily incidence. For those that have seen its capabilities, this wasn’t outside the realm of possibilities. Although the federal government shied away from pointing fingers at TPLF there seemed to be a consensus about that. 

Pandemic or not, elections in Ethiopia in May 2020 were never going to be easy. TPLF made it much harder. The process to postpone was constitutional. One may disagree with the provisions of the constitution and the authority of the House of Federation, but any reasonable person knows that that was the only legal means at the disposal for the government to consider. This isn’t new in Ethiopia. On so many issues the higher house decided when the constitution didn’t provide for it. Covid-19 wasn’t making things easy neither for PM Abiy nor for his opponents. But capitalizing on that to delegitimize a sitting federal government was surely going to create problems and bear consequences. For those that think their cause is worth the breaking of the state, I say, think again. In any case, more than few cried foul. But only one with the capacity and capability to disagree on a platform disagreed. TPLF. Not only they disagreed, they went unconstitutional and established their own election authority. Conducted elections, and claimed they will not recognize the federal government. The confrontation was brewing for at least two and half years. Each step the TPLF took cornered itself and had to lose an option. Some still argue there was a peaceful path for resolution. I fail to see that. TPLF decided the path that Ethiopia is on. If anything action against TPLF should have been take earlier. If anything the PM and his populism and misplaced desire for fame and public acceptance has costed us years. The only alternative TPLF left the government was to behave like a coward and a wimp and given in to its demands or confront it and showdown. It seems to me with their self-exaltation and puffed up self – TPLF never saw the later one coming. What we hate has prevailed, WAR – thanks to TPLF. But it was an inevitable action.

The unfortunate reality is that Tigray and its people are yet to determine the fate of TPLF. However improbable, the federal state is about to determine the fate of TPLF in the public life of Ethiopia. Tomorrow’s politicians will never just talk about TPLF without talking about the atrocities it caused Ethiopians – not just in the battlefield against ENDF and fellow Ethiopians in uniform – but as a civilian government for the lives its claimed, for the youth it destroyed, for the hope it shun, for the faith and trust among brotherhoods that it irreparably wrecked. TPLF will go down in the modern history of Ethiopia for its attitude of – my way or death for Ethiopia and Ethiopians.

Today, men and women are once again paying dearly to contain TPLF. I can’t help but think what it could have been like, if…

The political stalemate that seem to have engulfed Ethiopia today was never short of unpredictable variables and treacherous past difficult to knit together to succeed in state building. We now have an additional variable of mutiny within the armed forces along ethnic lines, dangerous assertion from a regional government against constitutional order threatening the federation, and disregard to the rule of law by senior officials within a regional government packed back a militia. If anything, this confrontation and its variables have broken the deadlock. Whatever political settlement that TPLF was pushing for has now proved itself that it is intolerant, war-mongering, and divisive at its foundation. However a dialogue turns out going forward, it must address and block the path that brought us here. Regional autonomy up to and including raising its own militia, arming them, and maintain an ideological line along ethnic lines within a federal governments executive and law enforcement structures must be addressed and benchmarks be set to close all loopholes. If one can come up with such a solution without abolishing ethnic federalism, by all means do so. But if the ultimate result, due to failure of government or loss of sanity, is turning brothers against each other, and endangering the federation up to the point of fragmentation; then the choice rests on the dialogue participants.

Moving towards a dialogue for consensus with the current political sphere players, those that were results of the elitist regime; in themselves elites, could prove fatal in another 25 years. The rise of the public until a system provides government for the people, by the people, to the people will be inevitable. The elite dialogue and consensus must base itself on a grassroots consultation, inclusion, and a participatory means to agree on a foundational constitutional order to sees Ethiopia flourish for the coming years. Village ideas, that do not serve the purpose of creating a nation strong and prosperous, but only seeks individual or ethnic based gains to secure a means for elite gains must be addressed and nipped in the bud.

However, none of this is possible without law and order across the land…