Rest in pieces USSR, summary of first 10 months of war, ex-files feat Merkel, Starlinks and Musk

Welcome to my weekly newsletter about everything related to the war in Ukraine and realgeopolik. I try not to repeat the news you've already seen, but share the 2-3 page news you might have missed but what matter. Or just reflect the news from a different angle. A very personal view and I might be totally wrong, please find time to argue in the comments.

100 years from birth (and less from the collapse) of the Soviet Union

Last week reminded us, or hopefully not many, of a date from history -100 years from the birth of the Soviet Union. While two-thirds of Russians are nostalgic about the Soviet Union and 70% are positive about Josif Stalin, the same number of Ukrainians don't have any “soft spot” towards Union and Stalin is considered rather a head of a terrorist regime that organized genocide taking lives of 4 million Ukrainians during Holodomor and more in repressions afterward. Putin seems to forget the history and “lessons learned” from the collapse, which he calls the “biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. The Soviet Union was crushed under fewer sanctions from the West amid competing in the Cold War, dragging on in the war in Afghanistan, economic sanctions, and the same propaganda of a “hostile West that wants to destroy the might USSR”. It is starting to look lime very much of history repeating with the same rhetoric against the West, a record number of sanctions (more than the USSR ever had), trying to outcompete the West in weapons. How did it end last time? With the collapse and losing territories. How are the moods in regions, take Dagestan or Yakutia?

Sad summary of war in Ukraine

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine overview, Ukraine has liberated 40% of occupied since February 24 territory,?and 28% of territories occupied since 2014. Today Ukraine is defending 3786 kilometres of the border and 1500 kilometres of the active frontline. The losses of Russia are estimated to include 100 000 troops, 3000 tanks and 300 planes. The training of 20 000 Ukrainian soldiers has been carried out in 17 countries. Over 600 000 people were evacuated from hotspots, and over 1000 of wounded defenders were sent for medical care to the Netherlands, France, Ireland, Norway, Denmark, Spain, Poland, Italy, Romania, US and Israel. From the beginning of the large-scale aggression, Ukraine has shot down 420 rockets and 430 Iranian drones sent to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. In the first days of 2023 Ukraine managed to take down all of 84 drones.

The ex-factor feat Angela Merkel

Nothing is more pathetic than the ghosts of the previous great leaders that made mistakes coming back haunting and justifying themselves. Angela Merkel has repeated that “Minsk agreements” were the right thing to do as it was winning Ukraine time. As well as "she lacked influence to convince Putin". What did Germany do meanwhile all these years under your rule? Supplied arms to Ukraine or kept strengthening the war machine while Germany bought Russian gas. In 2020 Russian gas accounted for 65% of all gas imports of Germany. Too late, you will not be in history books as a great leader but as someone who thought they understood Russia because you were interested in language and literature. Reminds of George Bush saying in 2001 “I looked the man (Putin) in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. I was able to get a sense of his soul.” While Senator McCain said, “he looked into Putin's eyes and saw the KGB”. Even Steinmeier said he was wrong about his "so-called peace formula and apologised".

While Merkel is finding excuses for making no effort to get rid of Russia-dependency, Germany now continues to be 3rd country in weapons supplied to Ukraine.As well another strong thought came from Munich Security Conference CEO “Germany has a moral obligation to support Ukraine. We must finally supply the Leopard tanks. We Germans committed terrible crimes in Ukraine during World War II, and we have a moral duty to support this country." The painful shift to the right side of history has happened, I hope it will reach all levels. Or Finland can go first and supply their Leopards first, as they offered if it makes it easier.

Musk confirms support to Ukraine.

Starlinks are undeniably vital to Ukrainian forces and keeping the connection up for critical infrastructure. By now, over 20 000 Starlink terminals have been dispatched to Ukraine, and Ukraine is now the second most Starlinked country in the world. The new batch of terminals from the Polish government has arrived and will support Ukrainian hospitals, energy systems and critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhaylo Fedorov has confirmed that Ukraine has direct contact with SpaceX and Elon Musk, and there is a promise to keep the terminals up and running, no matter what.

Sad clown of the year

That reminds me of Dmitri Rogozin, sometimes a powerful chief of Russian space or Roskosmos, now a wounded relic of the past. I still remember how Rogozin tweeted in 2014 that US should be “using trampoline” to get their astronauts to the international space station (ISS) after the first sanctions hit Roskosmos. Six years later, CrewDragon successfully docked ISS with the label “trampoline” on it. “Trampoline is working,” Musk just winked on take-off afterparty. After making numerous threats to US and Europe, threats to leave US astronaut Mark Vende Hei on ISS and mongering for war, Rogozin was fired. Well, obviously not for those reasons. While not receiving a new job offer, he wandered off to Donetsk to celebrate his 59th birthday in a local hotel, accompanied by the chairman of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic. Next, to put it bluntly, he got shelled to his bottom and was later transported to the Moscow clinic.?

Picture of the week: Ukrainian forces tracking and shooting down the Shahid-136 drones.