Responding to China's Military Buildup
Bill Ross
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China's Military Buildup: Threats to Taiwan, World Trade, and Stability, and the Case for Expanded U.S. Naval Power
Introduction
China’s rapid military expansion poses significant threats to regional stability in East Asia, the sovereignty of Taiwan, and the security of global trade routes. At the core of this issue is China’s pursuit of regional dominance, marked by an unprecedented buildup of naval, air, and missile capabilities aimed at projecting power in the Pacific. This buildup has far-reaching implications not only for Taiwan but also for the United States and its allies, given the centrality of the Indo-Pacific region to global trade and geopolitics.
To counter this growing threat, the United States must prioritize strengthening its military presence in the Pacific. A cornerstone of this strategy should be the addition of five aircraft carriers and three nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) to its fleet. This expanded capability would enable the U.S. to maintain at least three carriers and two submarines on station in the Pacific at all times, bolstering deterrence and preserving freedom of navigation.
China’s Military Buildup and Threats
Taiwan and Regional Stability
China’s military modernization is explicitly aimed at reunifying Taiwan with the mainland, whether peacefully or by force. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has developed capabilities to conduct amphibious assaults, enforce blockades, and launch missile strikes, all tailored for a potential invasion of Taiwan. The PLA Navy (PLAN) has expanded to become the world’s largest navy by fleet size, with over 355 ships and submarines as of 2021, a number projected to exceed 460 by 2030.
This buildup directly threatens Taiwan’s sovereignty. The deployment of advanced platforms like the Type 055 destroyers, anti-ship ballistic missiles (such as the DF-21D and DF-26), and J-20 stealth fighters gives China the means to enforce an air and sea blockade or carry out precision strikes. In addition, the PLA’s "grey-zone" tactics, such as near-constant air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), aim to exhaust Taiwan’s resources and weaken its defenses over time.
Threat to Global Trade
The Indo-Pacific region encompasses vital sea lanes through which nearly one-third of global trade flows, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. China’s militarization of artificial islands and its increasing naval presence endanger these routes. For example, the South China Sea—a waterway through which approximately $3.4 trillion in annual trade passes—is increasingly contested due to China’s assertion of sovereignty over nearly the entire region through its controversial "nine-dash line."
A Chinese military takeover of Taiwan would exacerbate these risks, effectively giving Beijing control over chokepoints such as the Taiwan Strait and threatening the security of allied nations like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Such control would also give China a significant lever over global trade, undermining the rules-based international order.
Strategic Implications
China’s growing power projection capabilities extend beyond the regional context. The PLAN’s development of blue-water capabilities, highlighted by aircraft carriers like the Liaoning and Shandong, signals Beijing’s intent to operate globally. In addition, the PLA Rocket Force’s arsenal of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and hypersonic weapons complicates U.S. power projection and regional defense strategies.
U.S. Response: Expanding Naval Power
The United States’ ability to deter Chinese aggression and maintain stability in the Pacific hinges on its naval superiority. However, the current U.S. fleet is under significant strain, with only 11 aircraft carriers and approximately 52 SSNs. This limits the ability to maintain a consistent presence in the Pacific while meeting other global commitments. Expanding the fleet by five aircraft carriers and three SSNs would address this gap and enhance the U.S. military’s ability to counter China’s ambitions.
Aircraft Carriers: Strategic Utility
Aircraft carriers are the centerpiece of U.S. power projection. Their mobility, operational range, and capacity to launch sustained air operations make them invaluable for deterring adversaries and supporting allies. By increasing the carrier fleet from 11 to 16, the U.S. Navy could ensure a continuous presence of three carriers in the Pacific, with additional carriers available for maintenance and other contingencies.
This expanded carrier presence would:
Nuclear Attack Submarines: Silent Deterrence
SSNs play a critical role in countering China’s naval ambitions. Their stealth, speed, and ability to conduct long-duration missions make them ideal for intelligence gathering, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), and striking high-value targets. Adding three SSNs to the fleet would allow the U.S. Navy to maintain at least two submarines on station in the Pacific at all times, enhancing its ability to:
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Feasibility and Costs
The expansion of the U.S. fleet to include five additional carriers and three SSNs is an ambitious goal but one that aligns with national security priorities.
Aircraft Carrier Costs
The construction of a Gerald R. Ford-class carrier costs approximately $13 billion per ship. While this represents a significant investment, the strategic benefits outweigh the costs. To streamline production and reduce expenses, the Navy could explore block-buy contracts and leverage advancements in shipbuilding technology.
Submarine Costs
Virginia-class SSNs cost around $3.45 billion each. Increasing production capacity at shipyards like Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls would be necessary to meet demand. Collaboration with allies on submarine technology and procurement could also help offset costs.
Funding Considerations
To fund this expansion, the U.S. could:
Broader Strategic Implications
Strengthening Alliances
An expanded U.S. naval presence would reassure allies and partners in the region, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines. It would also strengthen initiatives like the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) and bolster collective security.
Preserving Freedom of Navigation
A larger fleet would enable the U.S. to conduct more frequent freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in contested areas, reinforcing international law and deterring Chinese territorial expansion.
Long-Term Stability
Investing in naval power is not merely about countering China but ensuring long-term stability in the Indo-Pacific. A strong U.S. presence underpins the rules-based order and fosters economic growth and security.
Conclusion
China’s military buildup presents a clear and escalating threat to Taiwan, world trade, and regional stability. The United States must act decisively to counter this challenge by expanding its naval capabilities. Adding five aircraft carriers and three nuclear attack submarines to the fleet would enable the U.S. to maintain a continuous and credible presence in the Pacific, deterring aggression and safeguarding vital interests.
This investment is not only a response to China but a reaffirmation of America’s commitment to its allies, the free flow of trade, and the principles of sovereignty and international law. In an era of great-power competition, a robust and forward-deployed U.S. Navy is essential to preserving peace and stability in one of the world’s most critical regions.