Responding to a Black Swan

Black Swan event – definition: A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

We are currently experiencing a Black Swan event with the Covid-19 epidemic. This crisis makes us aware of our helplessness and vulnerability. It shows that there is very little that we have under control. That all the ideas that we have everything under control are actually an illusion.

There is a threat, a risk. At the same time we do not know much. Not what it will mean for our lives, our plans and the economy, in short, what it means for our future. The lack of control makes people feel insecure. In the absence of knowing, People are making assumptions. These assumptions are products of the mind that describe expectations - illusions. With the help of them people are escaping themselves and the now. Even escaping living, because that happens only in the now.

What is the risk?

There is a risk to get a cold and if you are unlucky, it may be severe or you may even die from it. And if others are unlucky you spread it to them. Besides friends and families who could also be effected, everyone on this planet faces this risk.

What is the likelihood?

It is pretty unknown if you will contract it. If you do – as it seems to be established - in more than 95% cases, you will survive it. It’s tricky, because even we carry it, we do not know it, but can already spread it. So, the likelihood to spread it, is even harder to compute.

What can we do, what is a response that is adequate?

We can go to the extremes and care a lot or don’t care…that’s options. Staying home, avoiding contact with people, living a self-prescribed quarantine or living as if nothing happened.

It probably calls for a measured response that lies somewhere in the middle. And this needs to be a response to what is there and not just an automated reaction.

Accept our vulnerability and that it’s not in our control…let things happen you can’t change, allow what happens to happen. The response I chose is to stay home currently and only leave the house for survival necessities, such as food and medication. If I look at the risk and likelihood of this epidemic spreading, the best I can do is to act as if I have the virus and act accordingly. That way, I do the best for myself AND others.

Let’s see where I might have a little control left. Meeting my demands. And following the advice and the laws / restrictions that are applicable where I am. This does not mean that I am effected, because it is my personal choice to follow their advice consciously, not protesting against what is. And not thinking that I am special and do not have to fit in. I can remain myself and fit in.

I also have control over the conscious choices I can make. Read more in my short article on Interesting times grant us opportunities to make choices

Also worth considering is the effect that we have on others. Being careful in the constant discussions about the topic not to know it better, not stirring the fear and panic even more. Let’s remind ourselves that even if it’s the truth, I shall not state things that are unfriendly and harmful to others. At the same time not falling into the opposite extreme of trying to take the fear away from people. Best probably not to engage in talk that is based limited knowledge and engages in non-stop scenario illusions about the future.

At the same time we do need to be there for other people. Technology makes it possible. But I guess, when we are in touch, besides talking about the virus, we could also talk about the choices we can make, the opportunities we see and inspire each other rather than just stir fear and panic by talking about things we actually do not really know.

I shall be clear of not making it all about me, but taking care that I do not infect others and making the necessary precautions for it. This effects us all, so a response cannot be for ourselves only, but also needs to be for all. We must take our responsibility seriously. Nothing more to do, except one thing.

One thing to do, or rather not to do is worrying. That is escaping what is and thinking about something that might come to be. That is having an illusion. Better stay in the moment and face the truth and make your choices. Just be and don’t mind.