Will resource spending improve?

Well the votes are in. The result is as many expected and what this means is that the proposed funding for schools presented before the election will now take place from April next year. Schools have been aware of their indicative funding from the Spending Round allocations since 11 October. A few days after this I asked over 500 head teachers where they thought spending on resources would go over the coming three years. Okay, that’s a really difficult thing to do. Schools (especially those in the primary sector) often find it impossible to work out resource budgets for the year they are currently in, let alone three years ahead. But either way, the question was asked to get some idea of the direction of travel.

So, what impact will ￡14.5 billion have on resource spending over the next three years? Unfortunately, in the first year, the identified ￡2.6 billion additional allocation for schools (5-16 years) will have no impact. We will likely see no more than a 1% increase in resource spending. In part this is due to funding increases in teacher salaries, and for many, start the process of repairing budget deficits.

The picture begins to improve as we move into 2021/22, where an additional ￡4.8 billion will be allocated to schools. The impact is likely to be a +5% improvement in resource budget allocations. As we move into 2022/23, spending is forecast to grow a little more to +6%, as the final lump of funding from this Spending Round of ￡7.1 billion is allocated.

Of course, spending will not be evenly spread over each category of spending. I will get a better idea of the shifts when the final data comes in from the annual resources survey, run on behalf of BESA. Here I ask over 900 school leaders and school business managers their projections for spending in 2020/21 by product category.

The annual BESA ‘Resources in English Schools’ review will be distributed to BESA members in early January in time for BETT and the Education Show. In the meantime, I wish everyone a festive season.

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I would very much like to hear views on the above outlook and feedback on any of your own experiences to date. You can reach me on [email protected] in the first instance, at which point a call can be arranged for a discussion.