Resistance: Balancing Deterrence Amidst Espionage

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely my own opinion and do not represent the opinions of the individuals or organization with which I am associated.

The ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah cross-border exchanges have now extended beyond six months. These exchanges began the day after Hamas launched its Blitzkrieg-style attack against Israel on October 7. Since then, Israel and Hezbollah have escalated their attacks against each other, expanding and intensifying the conflict. Despite Hezbollah's successful targeting of key spy infrastructure and military barracks belonging to the Israeli military, it has failed to target key military personnel. In contrast, Israel has been able to target and eliminate key Hezbollah and Hamas personnel across Lebanon, primarily in the South, using advanced military technology, including artificial intelligence. One crucial aspect Israel has long exploited is the recruitment of Lebanese and Palestinian spies.

With the economic situation rapidly deteriorating in Lebanon, Lebanese citizens and residents are seeking any job opportunities to supplement their income. Israel has capitalized on this situation by recruiting potentially hundreds or thousands of spies across Lebanon. Despite continuous efforts by Lebanon’s Intelligence Agencies and Hezbollah intelligence to capture spies, many have already provided key information to Israel, leading to the killing of significant Axis of Resistance (AoR) personnel.

This key information provided to Israel has aided the latter to assassinate the deputy chairman of Hamas' political bureau and the commander of the group's military wing in the occupied West Bank, Saleh Al-Arouri, in a strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Also, it has aided Israel in the assassination of elite Radwan Forces (Hezbollah) commander Wissam Tawil in a strike in southern Lebanon. Other Hezbollah and Hamas commanders have also been killed throughout the past three months in multiple Israeli drone and fighter jet strikes.

Hezbollah may have achieved success in the deterrence equation but has suffered significant losses due to espionage. This highlights that a successful resistance cannot solely rely on financial resources and military strength but must also have solid support systems in place. Hezbollah lacks this, despite having a support base primarily among the Shiite sect rather than among Lebanon's other sects. Despite being part of the Lebanese government for decades, Hezbollah has focused on promoting itself politically and militarily but has failed, alongside other Lebanese parties, to build a robust economy and maintain a positive international image.

"Success in war hinges not only on military prowess, but also on the ability to build and sustain a strong economy, as prosperity fuels the resilience needed to overcome adversity and secure lasting peace."