The Resilient Promise of Nigeria: Youth, Technology, and a New Elite

As Nigeria's new president takes the oath of office today amidst considerable uncertainty, I thought it was worth noting that despite the numerous challenges - corruption, insecurity, economic volatility - this nation is exhibiting trends suggesting a promising future. While understanding that certainty in such matters remains elusive, these trends could well trigger a shift that propels Nigeria towards prosperity.

Population is Destiny - Auguste Comte

With a population projected to surge to 400 million by 2050, Nigeria is teeming with youthful vigor. More than half of its citizens are under 19, according to United Nations data. This demographic, a potential army of future entrepreneurs, thinkers, and workers, is poised to play a significant role in shaping the nation's destiny. The World Bank suggests that such a demographic advantage, termed the 'demographic dividend', could accelerate economic growth, contingent, of course, on appropriate social and economic policies and investments.

Harnessing this potential hinges, in part, on effective TVET, technical and vocational education and training (a pet passion of mine). As Apple CEO Tim Cook observed about China, a skilled workforce in a concentrated area is a powerful asset, one that transcends the outdated perception of China as simply a low-cost labor market. Effective TVET can provide immediate economic benefits to individuals and their families. In Nigeria, efforts to promote TVET appear to be gaining ground. Data from the National Board for Technical Education (NBTE) indicates a rising trend of enrollment in vocational programs, suggesting that Nigeria is starting to equip its youth with practical, economically empowering skills.

Time also plays a critical role in shaping Nigeria's future. A powerful political minority, in power since the 1970s, is aging. This group, a product of a particular historical era, amassed wealth, power, and influence in a manner unseen since. Yet, time is the one resource they cannot acquire or control. As this older generation makes way, younger, innovative thinkers may rise to the fore, and those with less commendable intentions could find their power base more diversified and consensus-driven. It's already happening - President Tinubu won February’s elections with the lowest vote count for a victor in a presidential election.

Tech as a Growing (and Deflationary) Force

According to the Disrupt Africa report, Nigerian tech startups collectively raised US$793.79 million in 2021, a considerable increase from US$517 million raised in the previous year. This surge underscores the vibrant technological revolution underway in the country.

But the tech sector's growth isn't confined to its own sphere; it is transforming the entire economy. Technology has been a deflationary force on commerce. As digital solutions streamline operations and slash costs, Nigerians can look forward to more affordable products and services.

Moreover, technology is increasingly democratizing information. This is particularly evident in politics, where citizen journalism, fueled by widespread smartphone usage and social media platforms, is enhancing election transparency. The recent elections were, perhaps, the most transparent in recent history, although fairness remains a concern.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) also offers exciting prospects. AI can bridge the gap between an illiterate population and scalable economic activity mechanisms, integrating more Nigerians into the formal economy.

The Emergence of a New Type of Elite

The last decade has seen a marked increase in the number of Nigerian millionaires. As per World Bank data, Nigeria's millionaire count rose from 11,000 in 2010 to 30,000 in 2020, a staggering average annual growth rate of 11%.

In contrast to traditional elites, who typically inherited wealth or exploited political connections, this growth in millionaire numbers springs from diverse factors, including economic growth, the tech industry's rise, and the increasing number of Nigerians residing overseas.

The key takeaway is the mindset shift among this new elite: notconsumption, but value creation. Nigerian millionaires are more likely to be self-employed than their counterparts in other countries, indicating the emergence of an elite that generates value and builds, rather than simply consuming and hoarding national resources.

Conclusion

These trends - a youthful population, technological advancements, and a new type of elite - sketch an optimistic picture of Nigeria's future. They indicate potential shifts that could navigate Nigeria towards prosperity, irrespective of who is in power.

Still, it's crucial to acknowledge the substantial challenges the nation faces. Wealth inequality, and the resulting insecurity, is a serious issue that must be addressed.

While this isn't a prediction, it offers a glimpse into what may be possible. Nigeria, a nation rich in resources, talent, and youthful energy, has tremendous potential. Despite considerable challenges, there is every reason to remain hopeful about its future.