Is "Resilience" the right word? An exercise in meme prediction
Giancarlo Vercellino
Market Research | Competitive Intelligence | Business Strategy | Innovation Scouting | Data Science
The point: can the amplified awareness about Resilience significantly improve the awareness about Cloud? In this pandemic "new normal" we are living in, it is reasonable to assume that the increased concerns about business disruption may inevitably lead to a relevant correlation between those two concepts, at least in term of Interest-Over-Time, that can be usefully exploited by marketing communications (how cynical), but here we are with the brutal question: is that really true? We made a little assessment, just to be sure if our cynicism may be grounded on numbers.
Collecting three-year-long time series related to the Interest-Over-Time about word "resilience" and "cloud computing", we made a little jump forward in the future predicting numbers for next 26 weeks. We made two different predictions: the first, a joint-prediction of both "resilience" and "cloud computing"; the second, only "cloud computing" without any association (with the same model and hyperparameters; from the technical point of view, to be brief and for the few geeks out there, we made a quantile regression using convolutional neural networks).
What did we get? Well, as you may look below, the two predictions are not quite different. The difference in the predicted interest for Cloud is pretty much the same in both the joint and the single model (the prediction for Cloud in the joint model has an average two point above the single model, but this difference is not significant, p-value above 5%), so we may assume that all this talking about Resilience is not really helping in the promotion of Cloud, at least so far. Ceteris paribus, sure!