THE RESILIENCE ADVANTAGE: ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF EARTHQUAKE RETROFITS AND RESILIENT DESIGN

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Ghost town communities.

Shattered lives brought on by boarded-up businesses, record numbers of unemployed, and economic collapse.

A devastating death toll – and hospital, morgue, and public safety services stretched beyond their limits.

This is what disaster looks like, and we are seeing it first-hand in 2020 with the deadly COVID-19 pandemic.

The world was not prepared for a global crisis such as this. We were seemingly too distracted, too busy, or too negligent to heed the warnings from epidemiologists.

The grim experience changed millions of lives as leaders cried out to make communities resilient against any disaster – be it disease, hurricane, fire, or earthquake.

Will that change really happen? How soon will we forget the lessons learned about the need for resilience?

This report presents important information demonstrating the effectiveness of earthquake-resistant buildings, and the sound economic investment they are to business and building owners, tenants, governments, and the community-at-large.

The Risk Is Real

FEMA estimates that $4.4 billion in earthquake losses occur each year in the United States. This figure includes only capital and business income losses, not the direct or indirect economic losses caused by damage to housing, schools, businesses, critical facilities, transportation, and utility lifelines. According to the study, 84% of the nation’s annual losses are expected to occur in California, Oregon, and Washington, with California alone accounting for $3.3 billion.1

The West Coast is at grave risk of a major earthquake, but the threat is relevant throughout the nation, in cities like Memphis, Charleston, SC, and Salt Lake City; and multiple disasters can strike simultaneously. Amid this year’s novel coronavirus outbreak, Salt Lake City was hit by an earthquake that cut power to tens of thousands, temporarily closed the airport, and suspended work at Utah’s public health lab.

Nearly halfway around the world, the Croatian capital of Zagreb saw its largest earthquake in 140 years while in coronavirus lockdown. Extensive damage was reported to the Parliament building and cathedral. Hospitals were damaged and evacuated. Walls, rooftops, and chimneys of many buildings collapsed.2

During the same period, a 6.5-magnitude quake struck Idaho – the strongest temblor in the state since 1983.

The U.S. Geologic Survey estimates a 99% chance in the next 30 years of another Northridge-size earthquake occurring in California. That 6.7-magnitude quake damaged or destroyed more than 82,000 structures, killed 60 people, and injured 9,000 in 1994.

Even more dramatic is the likelihood of a major quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years: 46%. Recent estimates put damages caused by a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Puente Hills fault running through downtown Los Angeles at more than $252 billion with thousands killed and hundreds of thousands displaced.3

It could be much worse.

On September 7, 2017, a massive earthquake, estimated at Magnitude 8.1 by the U.S. Geological Survey, unleashed four times more energy on southern Mexico than the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake. A similar quake on the San Andreas fault would damage every community in Southern California from Palm Springs to San Luis Obispo, according to seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones.4

Earthquakes Are Inevitable, But They Do Not Have to Be Disasters

Much of society has embraced resilience, recognizing that the strength of the built environment affects the physical, economic, and social well-being of communities by preserving lives, property, business continuity, public services, and communities’ fiscal stability.

Most notable are advances in the retrofitting of existing buildings, where – because of the numbers of vulnerable structures in our communities – the opportunity to make significant and positive change can reach deep into the heart of maintaining social well-being.

Major steps forward in earthquake safety were taken by California’s two largest cities in the past decade.

Then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom signed an Executive Order in 2010 to launch an Earthquake Safety Implementation Program. The program mandates retrofits for vulnerable soft-story, wood-frame buildings of three or more stories with five or more residential dwelling units.5 Retrofitting these buildings will improve safety for as many as 180,000 San Franciscans, while continuing to protect affordable housing stock, businesses, and the local economy.

Similar action was taken by the City of Los Angeles in October 2015, when Mayor Eric Garcetti pushed for new laws mandating several measures, including seismic retrofits of nearly 14,000 pre-1978 soft-story, woodframe structures. Many of these buildings provide housing for the city’s most vulnerable populations. In an ambitious report entitled “Resilience By Design,” Garcetti called for making Los Angeles “a nation-leading epicenter of seismic preparedness, resilience, and safety.”6

As of April 1, 2020, plans had been submitted for 11,396 properties, and 6,745 of these had pulled permits. Construction had been finished and Certificates of Completion issued for 4,142 properties with permits.7

We are at a tipping point. Today, the economics of retrofits and resilience work. Even the simple benefit of eliminating potential earthquake liability judgements can mean the difference between solvency and bankruptcy for building owners and businesses.

Over the past 40 years, structural engineers have developed innovative technologies to reduce building damage and injuries. Building science and materials have improved dramatically, and public awareness about the importance of seismic resiliency has grown significantly.

The costs of seismic retrofits are often affordable, resulting in a high return on investment. The National Institute of Building Sciences found that retrofitting existing residential building stock can produce up to $16 dollars in benefit for every dollar spent. Many smart building and business owners are taking the obvious next step: investing in resilience to stay in business after a major earthquake.

Download the full paper here: https://www.optimumseismic.com/economic-benefits-of-earthquake-retrofits-and-resilient-design/

-Ali Sahabi, GEC, MRED

COO Optimum Seismic, Immediate Past-President of Building Industry Association Baldy View Chapter.

-Evan Reis, SE

USRC Executive Director