Resetting Expectations: The 3x 2x 1/2x System

A decade ago, I attended a seminar where the speaker said this:?

“Whenever I talk to an entrepreneur, they always tell me it took three times longer than expected, cost twice as much, and the team was only half as effective as anticipated.”

Everyone laughed and nodded in agreement. It really stuck with me. 10 years later I think about it every time I start a new project.?

Business owners have been upset about delays and quality throughout all human history -- the earliest recorded example I could find is the "Complaint Tablet to Ea-nā?ir," dating back to around 1750 BCE during the reign of Hammurabi, complaining about the poor quality of copper delivered and the delay in shipment.? Haha, I wonder what Ea-nā?ir had to say.

If this is such a universal truth about unmet expectations, maybe we can flip the narrative and reset expectations to improve our chances of product success.

Breaking Down the 3x 2x 1/2x System:

1. Perception of Time: 3x Longer

We all know delays happen in every project. On the stakeholder side, it could be slow feedback, unexpected dependencies, or issues with contracts. On the developer side, every phase of the project might reveal new things that need more time to explore, define, and build. Even with great planning, unexpected technical challenges or changes can throw off the schedule. Here are the common unpredictable speed bumps on most projects:

• Slow Stakeholder Feedback
• Contractual and Legal Holdups
• Unclear Requirements
• Research and Exploration
• Dependencies and Bottlenecks

2. Cost Perception: 2x the Budget

Projects usually start with an optimistic budget that seems totally doable, only for it to grow as the work moves along. Even if you’ve got everything on your wishlist clearly documented, development is unpredictable—new requirements almost always pop up, and those extras add up. It’s not that the developers are trying to drive up costs; it’s just that software often turns out to be more complex than it seems at first.

Here are the common unexpected cost centers on most projects:

• Hidden Requirements and Scope Creep
• Redirection and Context Switching
• Technical Debt
• Third-Party Tools and Integrations

3. Perception of Team Effectiveness: 1/2 as Expected

Every team has its strengths (that’s why you hired them, right?). But no team is going to focus on everything with equal time and attention. Some areas will shine, while others might be deprioritized in value or effort.

But often, the reason your team isn’t meeting expectations is because half of their work is happening behind the scenes. A development team spends a lot of time on non-observable activities: back-end functionality, API integrations, DevOps, SecOps, and all the other bits that make the product work.

Here are the most common inefficiencies for most teams:

• Hidden Efforts
• Skill Mismatches
• Context Switching
• Communication Gaps
• External Dependencies

What You Can Do:

Here's a saying no buyer wants to hear: “You can have your preference of Time, Money, and Scope… but you can only pick 2.”?

1. Time: Commit to a less time-intensive scope

• Narrow Down Your Vision: If you’ve got a hard deadline, you might need to cut the scope by about a third to hit it. It’s a frustrating experience, especially when your vision is 10x bigger than anyone else can comprehend. But the best products often start by doing one thing really well. Cutting down the scope by ? will help you focus on what truly matters.
• Figure Out What Truly Matters: How do you decide? A great CX/UX exercise—like the ones done by Toolbox9.com (shameless plug)—can help you figure out what’s actually valuable to your potential customers.
• Get in a Cadence: Remember, you’re at least 50% of the delays. Commit to regular feedback and set aside dedicated time each week for your responsibilities to ensure you're not the bottleneck.

2. Cost: Halve Your Initial Spend

• Dial in Your MVP: Plan to build some form of proof-of-concept with about half of your total budget for the MVP. It’s a tough ask, but it’s also a discipline that will help you focus on the most important features. What you think you want at the start will likely change by the end, so don’t overcommit to features that might not bring real value. Spending less upfront will force you to make smarter decisions until you’re confident about where to spend the rest.

3. Effectiveness: (Re)set Your Team Expectations:

• Know your team’s strengths: Before hiring a development team, get to know their strengths and values, and make sure they align with what you need. There will be frustrations here and there, but also moments where they really shine. And remember, you and your team can grow and evolve together as the project moves forward.?
• Educate yourself: Find out what your team does behind the scenes. Be curious. Chances are, there’s a lot of magic going on that you don’t see, let alone understand.