A Reset or Setback?

Humza Yousaf’s bold (or reckless?) decision to end the formal confidence and supply agreement known as the Bute House Agreement, has for the time being set the SNP and Scottish Greens at loggerheads. The largest independence-supporting parties elected in 2021, agreed to a power deal that Summer ahead of COP26 in Glasgow.

Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, co-leaders of the Scottish Greens, joined the Scottish Government as junior ministers: the first Green politicians to play a role in government anywhere in the United Kingdom.

The coalition, as any party, particularly the Liberal Democrats, have found, can be fraught with compromise and upset a loyal supporter base. That usually depends on who you are metaphorically in bed politically with. The Conservative-Lib Dem coalition cost the Lib Dems dearly in 2015 and has taken them a decade to marginally improve their position. The Labour Party in Scotland were decimated for their apparent coalition with the Tories during the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014 and fell to be the third party in Scotland.

The Scottish Greens don’t appear to have had any significant electoral impact from being in coalition with the SNP but then there hasn’t been a major contest to test that theory. Meanwhile, everyone and their dog knows of the SNP’s woes over the past year and its reputational impact. When the going gets tough, the SNP membership and MSPs turned on its coalition partners. Every problem, from the deposit return scheme failure (initiated by the SNP prior to the coalition), gender recognition reform (in both parties’ manifestos), failure to dual the A9, ending the burning of wood and peat in off-grid homes (for health reasons more than action on climate), was laid at the doorstep of the Green ministers.

Harold Wilson is oft-quoted as saying ‘a week is a long time in politics’ and never so apt has this been over the last few days. At the start of the week, Humza Yousaf was defending the coalition agreement, by Thursday he had ripped it up and unceremoniously sacked the two Green ministers.

Immediately, Opposition parties called for a vote of no confidence (VONC) in either the First Minister or the Scottish Government or both! The Scottish Greens piled on the pressure by stating they would support a VONC in the First Minister. Hell hath no fury like the Scottish Greens co-leaders scorn.

The media are having more than one field day. This is Christmas come early for political journalists and commentators as speculation runs rife over what happens next. So what is Humza Yousaf’s battle strategy?

He could do a deal with his one-time leadership rival, Ash Regan, now leader of Alba party in the Scottish Parliament. That would give a majority provided the SNP is united on the day. In doing so, he is likely to upset his support base who campaigned to stop people like Ash Regan and Kate Forbes from leading the country with their anti-progressive policies. A price worth paying perhaps?

He could rebuff Alba and call the bluff of his now-united opponents. If they pass a VONC in him, he would duly resign as FM but remain leader of the SNP and sit out the next 28 days waiting for that united opposition to vote in a new First Minister. What are the chances of that? Pretty much zilch. Imagine Anas Sarwar as FM with Douglas Ross as his Deputy going into a UK General Election: overnight it would recreate the 2015 scenario and Scottish Labour’s likely reversal of its fortunes at Westminster would vanish like ‘sna’ aff a dyke’ in Spring.

If they cannot agree on a new First Minister, the Presiding Officer is duty bound to dissolve parliament and hold fresh elections for a term that will only last two years, due to the fixed term nature of the devolved parliamentary system. Labour might fancy a Scottish election but the Tories are unlikely to vote like turkeys for an early Christmas.

Ultimately, Humza Yousaf would put himself forward again and more than one party would likely abstain to prevent another Scottish election. Humza Yousaf is back as FM and minority government returns as the default. How it might fare in passing a budget or legislation is another matter but bear in mind, relatively little legislation (remember the Gender Recognition Reform Bill was passed by 86 to 39) is approved on a small majority and the lessons of 2007-11 would suggest that contested legislative proposals will be dropped.

Will Humza Yousaf’s reputation improve or diminish after all this political manoeuvring? Very hard to tell but one thing is for sure, ordinary voters have no time for parliamentary shenanigans, especially when they are having to struggle with the serious business of everyday life that politicians were elected to resolve.