Research and Insights to Sharpen Your Investment Clarity

In a world overflowing with information, we understand the value of a resource that cuts through the noise to deliver something truly distinctive.?

MSCI Research Roundup exists to provide more than just access to our publications. Through this newsletter, you’ll discover the most impactful of the month’s research and gain access to specialist content and some of the brilliant minds behind the work. This includes perspectives from experts at MSCI Research and Development who usually remain behind the scenes, as well as exclusive, "hot off the press" charts, visualizations and videos designed to inform and inspire.

Our goal is to provide practical insights, innovative thinking and actionable intelligence, offering unparalleled access to the people, perspectives and data that matter most. Through rigorous, forward-looking analysis, we aim to help you navigate complex market dynamics, uncover opportunities for sustainable growth and stay ahead of emerging trends — all while empowering you to make informed decisions with confidence.?

MSCI Research: The Month That Was??

In January, we kicked off the year with our In Focus series, offering insights across markets and asset classes. Stay ahead of the curve with this comprehensive series, designed to help investors identify opportunities and navigate the complexities of this year’s investment environment.

Investment Trends in Focus provides a 360° perspective on the year’s dominant theme: U.S. market supremacy. With global imbalances persisting, what are the critical factors investors will monitor to steady their strategies??

In Real Estate in Focus we explore commercial property’s cautious recovery after a prolonged downturn. We outline five essential themes investors should consider as the sector navigates challenges posed by rising rates and evolving market dynamics.?

Macro Scenarios in Focus assesses the enduring impact of structural forces — such as aging populations, deglobalization and supply-chain disruptions — on inflation and interest rates. These secular trends could reshape portfolio strategies for multi-asset investors.?

In Private Capital in Focus we dive into private markets, where USD 2 trillion in dry powder faces the realities of low distribution rates and elevated borrowing costs. We highlight four trends that could redefine private-capital strategies.?

2025 is also expected to bring profound shifts to the world of sustainability and climate, driven by geopolitics, disruptive technology and environmental challenges. Discover how these extraordinary changes could alter the risk landscape for investors and translate into unprecedented opportunity: What Could Shape Sustainability and Climate Investing in 2025??

Spotlight on…Carbon Markets?

Carbon credits have come a long way since their inception in the late 1980s. Stay informed with our guide Understanding Carbon Markets, which walks you through the fundamentals and helps you understand the nuances of these markets, their governance and recent developments. Whether you’re new to carbon markets or a seasoned veteran, you’re bound to learn something new in our comprehensive guide.?

In Frozen Carbon Credit Market May Thaw as 2030 Gets Closer, we detail how?the size of the global carbon credit market remained on ice last year at around USD 1.4 billion, with flat demand and declining prices. There are some signs of a coming thaw, however, and if the ice melts, our projections suggest the market could be worth USD 7 to 35 billion by 2030.?

Do Wealth Managers Have the Tools to Confront Global Change???

See what our recent Emerging Trends in Wealth Management survey reveals about this exciting space. Global megatrends and shifting client expectations are giving rise to a new, interconnected system of personalization, transparency and technological forces requiring wealth managers to dramatically rethink how they deliver services. Learn how these forces are reshaping the industry — and how MSCI has built solutions designed to enable advisers to capitalize on emerging opportunities while mitigating risks.??

Hot Off the Press?

Transition Risks Could Double Probability of Defaults for APAC Banks?

The transition to a low-carbon economy will have varying impacts on industries and regions over different time horizons. Our analysis, based on a “2°C delayed scenario”— which appears increasingly realistic given the current political landscape — suggests that, in the near term, banks across regions are likely to experience relatively minor increases in the likelihood of defaults due to climate-related transition risks. The picture changes, however, over longer horizons (10+ years). Banks in the APAC region, which have significant exposure to industrial sectors, could face a doubling of the level of credit defaults due to transition-risk impacts over current baselines. Despite heightened expectations by regulators (1) on integrating climate-related financial risk considerations into banks’ risk-management frameworks, only a minority of credit institutions (2) publicly reported implementing advanced practices for managing transition risks.??

Percentage increase in credit risk over baseline under a 2°C delayed scenario??

US Commercial Property Distress Reaches 11-Year High?

Distress in U.S. commercial property increased at a more moderate pace in Q4 2024, continuing the trend of growing-but-slowing distress seen over the year.?The value of property-related distress, which encompasses both financially-troubled assets and assets taken back by lenders, reached USD 107.0 billion, the highest level since 2013. Still, that is only just over half of the distress value recorded at the peak of the global financial crisis (GFC).??

Offices accounted for nearly half of the outstanding distress at the end of 2024. Higher lending rates have pummeled U.S. property pricing since 2022, while hollowed-out demand for workplaces has added to the woes. Difficulty in refinancing under current capital-market conditions — often due to declining asset performance — is one reason a property would be classified as distressed.?

The apartment market was the primary driver of the overall increase in distress in Q4,?though that may point more to a potential bottom for the office market than to a decline in health for apartment. The USD 1.6 billion in apartment-related distress added in the final three months of the year was just below the average recorded for earlier periods of 2024. For office, the additional USD 1.2 billion in distress was a drop from the average USD 3.5 billion seen in each of the previous three quarters.?

Sales of properties because of a distressed situation inched up to a 2.5% share of annual transaction volume in 2024. At the height of the GFC, this proportion was 18.4%. So, while distressed assets have been available, the broader market selloff that some opportunistic investors had perhaps hoped for has not taken place.?

Distress in US commercial real estate?

(1) “Final Report: Guidelines on the management of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks,” European Banking Authority, Jan. 8, 2025.?

(2) Our analysis, based on data sourced from lenders classified as diversified banks, regional banks and diversified financial services under MSCI ESG Ratings coverage in Europe, Asia Pacific and the Americas, showed that on average 18.4% of credit institutions disclosed climate-related practices in risk management.

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