Republicans select Emmer as Speaker-designate by slimmest of margins, sowing doubt on resolution of leadership crisis

Republicans have selected Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota) as Speaker-designate following five rounds of balloting in the Republican conference today, by a vote of 117 in favor to 100 against Emmer's candidacy for the House Speakership.

Rep. Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) received 97 votes in the fifth and final round of balloting. Three votes were cast for someone else.

Johnson, the vice-chair of the Republican conference and a Freedom Caucus member from the far right of the Party, reached the final elimination round after Reps. Kevin Hern (R-Oklahoma) was defeated and Byron Donalds (R-Florida) withdrew, having both progressively lost votes in their final two ballots. Each received 25 votes in the fourth round, against 56 cast for Johnson and 107 for Emmer.

The math deserves close reflection. To secure the Speakership Emmer needs to get 217 out of 221 Republican votes on the floor of the House, if every member of the House casts a vote for a candidate by name.

Voting for the 'Great Pumpkin' does not count.

This means Emmer can only lose 4 votes from among his conference, out of the 100 Republican members who did not support him in today's fifth round of voting.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy's Speakership was undermined by just eight Republican votes cast in favor of vacating his position on October 3rd. It appears extremely unlikely Emmer can slice this 'MAGAnitude' of opposition in half and achieve the required 217 threshold.

We are entering the land of double hypotheticals.

If just 2.3% of the Republican conference in the House opposes Emmer's election, some Republicans may be tempted to look across the aisle for Democratic Party support to secure Emmer the Speakership.

If and only if that were to happen and Democrats choose to abide their moderate Republican colleagues to help them elect a Speaker and reopen the House, the Republican Party in America may splinter into irremediably broken factions.

House Freedom Caucus Republicans are faced then with a dilemma. Do they acquiesce to the will of the majority of their Party's members and allow a relatively mainstream Republican to ascent to the Speakership, or risk triggering the splintering of the Party, leaving Democrats in de facto coalition with Republican 'moderates'?

In a roll call vote held after Emmer's selection, 26 Republican members said they would not vote for Emmer when the decision came before the full House, effectively blocking his securing the Speaker's gavel.

After the roll call, Emmer met with far right 'holdouts', while former President Donald Trump called Emmer a "globalist RINO" — Republican in name only — and “totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters” on his Truth Social platform, undermining his candidacy.

The decision of the anti-Emmer faction to block his Speakership may shape American political leadership for years to come.

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