The Republicans’ Presidential March Madness

We’re in the midst of political March Madness. 

While many reporters are clamoring to be the first to declare the end of a candidate’s campaign, there’s good reason for all of the “final four” GOP presidential hopefuls to keep pushing toward the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this July. 

No single GOP candidate is likely to earn a majority of delegates going into the convention. Donald Trump has some serious detractors. Ted Cruz has momentum. John Kasich is likely to capture the Buckeye State. Marco Rubio took Minnesota and Puerto Rico, may take the Sunshine State and remains everyone’s favorite second choice.

So if the nominee is not selected until July, why drop out now? 

The existing Republican rules encourage a second round of voting. Those rules say a candidate must have won a majority (more than 50 percent) of delegates in at least eight states to be elected in the first round of voting. So far, only Trump has met this threshold, but Cruz is also likely to meet it.  

So, absent a majority of delegates before the convention, there likely will be a second round of voting. Trump’s delegates may not be loyal to him after the first round. According to a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution, most of the states — even those that have held primaries — have not yet selected their delegates. And although the party leaders should and will choose delegates who state a preference for the candidates who won, nothing will bind them to the candidate after the first ballot. More, state party leaders may be disinclined to choose delegates who are loyal to Trump. 

If you put all of this together, and the delegates arrive in Cleveland without majority support for any one candidate, it may encourage two of the final four candidates to join forces and present a “unity ticket” that could win. I don’t see Cruz, Rubio or Kasich agreeing to serve as a vice president for candidate Trump. And the vitriol, differences in viewpoint and the public humiliation of Chris Christie after he endorsed Trump make the prospect even more unlikely.

I don’t see much affinity between Cruz and Rubio. They’re around the same age and share similar backgrounds — both are freshman senators, both have Cuban roots. But their policy positions on major business issues such as the USA Freedom Act, high-skilled immigration and corporate taxes are vastly different. Similarly, I don’t see the principled and experienced Kasich embracing the ideological first-termer Cruz. 

That leaves Rubio and Kasich to join forces. They seem to get along, respect each other and have not attacked one another in the primaries. And Kasich’s gravitas, age and experience complement Rubio’s youth, enthusiasm and firm belief in the American Dream.

The biggest challenge of this joint effort is that, even together, they would place third in delegate count. This would be another reason for them to join forces as early as possible. As a team, they could attract many voters and win more states and delegates. And the business community would rally behind a Rubio-Kasich ticket. Rubio favors innovation and is the most pro-technology candidate, while Kasich has a great pro-business record.

Even with a minority of delegates, a Rubio-Kasich pairing could make sense. Hopefully at some point during the Republican National Convention, the Trump and Cruz supporters will reach an impasse, with both sides recognizing they can’t live with each other, but they could live with a team of Kasich and Rubio.

A real deadlock could require drafting Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, whom political analyst Charlie Cook recently called the blood type O — the universal donor, so to speak — of the Republican Party.

We’re in uncharted waters and almost anything could still happen. So, barring health problems or severe financial difficulties, it makes little sense for any of the candidates to drop out now. Each one has a viable chance to cement their status in Cleveland.