Republican Wave Wipes out Democratic Gains in Texas
DDC Public Affairs
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The Monument Group?
Overview:?
The Republican Party demonstrated its dominance in the State of Texas, winning both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races and increasing its majorities in both State House and Senate. Republican margins in statewide races increased from 2020, wiping out recent gains made by Democrats across the state.?
Trump won re-election in Texas with the largest margin of victory in a presidential race in 20 years, when George W. Bush won re-election.?
Trump secured victories in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, including Starr County (57.7%), Cameron County (52.5%), Hidalgo County (51%) and Webb County (50.7%), all of which Clinton and Biden won by double-digits.??
Trump’s success in the region demonstrates the growing support he has received from Latino voters, who make up the large majority of the population of the Rio Grande Valley. The President-elect’s emphasis on improving the economy, securing the border, and supporting the energy industry resonated with voters in the Valley, just as it did with voters throughout the state.??
Of Texas’ 254 counties, Vice President Harris won only 12, which included the urban centers of Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso.?
President Elect Donald Trump’s nearly 13.9-point margin of victory was an increase from his 5.6-point margin of victory in 2020 and his 9-point margin in 2016.?
U.S. Senate (TX):?
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who resigned his House position to run for U.S. Senate, lost to incumbent Senator Ted Cruz. In what was expected to be a tight race, Cruz won by an 8.7 percent margin. Senator Ted Cruz will continue serving alongside Senator John Cornyn (R), who is in a tight race for Senate Majority Leader.?
U.S. House of Representatives (TX):?
The 38-seat Texas delegation to the U.S. House will remain at 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats. Four new members will join the delegation, including former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D), who was elected to fill the seat of former Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee.??
Texas House of Representatives (150 members):?
In the Texas House, Republicans expanded their majority, adding two seats for a total of 88 Republicans to 62 Democrats.??
Texas Senate (31 members):?
The Texas Senate will have three new members in 2025. Republicans are projected to gain one additional seat, resulting in a 20-11 majority for the 89th Legislative Session, compared to a 19-2 majority in 2023.??
Other Notable Elections?
In the only major city mayoral race, Austin Mayor Kirk Watson received 50.01% of the vote in a five-way race. If his lead holds after provisional and mail-in ballots are counted, Mayor Watson will avoid a December runoff against the next-highest vote-getter, community organizer Carmen Llanes Pulido, who received 20.1% of the vote.??
Houston Independent School District’s historic $4.4 billion school bond – the largest school bond in Texas history – failed.?
Trends?
Democrats continued to hold the urban areas of the state’s largest cities. Rep. Collin Allred beat Senator Ted Cruz in all major metro areas of the state.?
South Texas once again emerged as a key battleground, attracting substantial campaign investments from both parties. Republican support has grown in the region, and this election saw the GOP defending seats and flipping a Texas Senate and two Texas House seats. Trump won Starr County in the Rio Grande Valley by more than 15 percentage points. It was the first time a Republican won the county in a presidential race since 1896.?
Republicans flipped 23 benches held by Democrats. There were 32 contested judicial elections in Texas, and Republicans went 31-1, losing only one seat in Austin by 2%.??