Reporting from the global climate summit; "the world's moment of truth"

It’s difficult to summarize what’s unfolding at the historic global climate summit in Scotland, where every country in the world has agreed to the need to cap warming below the dangerous threshold of 2°C, but thus far the commitments will add up to too little, too late. It’s like the moment in an action movie when everyone is waiting for the superhero to swoop in to save the day, only in this case, every Head of State and CEO share that leading role. These “Conference of the Parties” summits happen every year but this one has been deemed the “world’s moment of truth” and, by some, the “Business COP” because of the ~US$130 trillion in net-zero aligned financing committed by the private sector (as context, global annual GDP is ~US$80 trillion).

I begin on the narrow streets of Glasgow where over 100,000 parents, youth, indigenous and developing world protesters shout “blah blah blah”, the new mantra to spur less talk and more action. “We are drowning” chant the island countries. “You’re stealing our future” shout GenZ and Millennials. “Indigenous people care for most of the world’s remaining forests” yell indigenous leaders. Parents present a letter to COP26 President Alok Sharma: “burning fossil fuels is the leading environmental threat to global pediatric health and equity. It also creates climate change, which is ruining our children’s futures and destroying our only home.” Conservatives cry out “Renewables = energy independence!”. On the river floats a melting iceberg brought by scientists to make visible what is invisible to many. They all seek the same goal: to keep the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C alive. One can feel the anger and desperation trembling in their voices.

Those lucky enough to have fended off 40,000 other government, private sector or NGO attendees can enter the Green Zone, where every surface is covered in advertisements from companies touting their green credentials. After exhaustive (and exhausting!) bureaucratic, security, and COVID checks, a rarefied few are credentialed to enter the Blue Zone, the chambers where national delegations announce their draft 5-year decarbonization targets under the Paris Agreement and hash out the details of cross-border issues like international carbon pricing.?

Sir David Attenborough gives the most rousing speech of his lifetime (a must-watch written by our friends at Silverback Studios using Our Planet footage).

Leonardo DiCaprio arrives to rally support for the US-led pledge by 105 nations to cut global methane emissions by 30% by 2030, one of the biggest surprises so far. President Biden also announces a carbon capture moonshot and sustainable agriculture policies, but fell short of joining 40 other countries in ending use of coal power.

In the chilly hallways of the venue, Tik Tok-ers and Tom Friedman of the NY Times interview dignitaries. Biden’s Cabinet and US Congressmembers race past me, while CEOs from every sector step simultaneously onto multiple stages to announce billions in new finance to halt deforestation[1], cease coal burning[2], drastically cut methane[3], and ensure an equitable energy transition[4]. A whopping 450 financial firms from 45 countries commit $130 trillion of private capital to transforming the economy for net zero, delivering 70% of the total needed.

Bill Gates announces his latest clean energy technology fund at $1B, a profitable endeavor capitalizing on the already dropping costs of carbon alternatives.

At the BBC headquarters next door, adorned in solar panels, CEOs from 8 broadcasting and streaming companies announce a “Content Climate Pledge (2min video here with coverage in Variety, Deadline, Reuters, etc.)”. Sky’s CEO says “We have set out our pathway to achieve net zero carbon, but we know this alone will not be enough. Through the content that we bring into our customers’ homes we believe broadcasters have a clear role and responsibility to encourage lifestyle changes that address the climate crisis. We’re calling for a new era of collaboration among film & TV companies and are publishing our research in full (e.g. 80% of Europeans support broadcasters using content and advertising to encourage people to adopt more environmentally positive behaviors).

With some negotiations still to go, here’s the scorecard:

·?Public and private sector commitments to net zero now cover 89% of all greenhouse gases.

·??Government commitments, if fulfilled, amount to closing the emissions gap for 1.5°C of warming by around 9 gigatons per year - leaving around 13Gt to go,?according to new analysis by the?Energy Transition Commission. Of those 9 gigatons, 2.5 come from business and finance sector commitments.

·?The problem is that, according to the latest analyses, implementation is lagging across all sectors. Best current estimates put end-of-century warming at 2.7°C based on “real world action” from current policies and 2.4°C based on the current 2030 targets (see Climate Action Tracker).

·? Says Christiana Figueres, the architect of the Paris Agreement (and advisor to Netflix), “COP26 was never expected to guarantee 1.5°C but to keep it within reach. But UN estimates show that commitments so far would still result in a 13% increase in emissions by 2030 rather than the 50% decrease needed to hit 1.5°C.” So in other words, near-term speed and scale of emissions reductions is everything.

·?At 80% of emissions, the countries that matter most are the G20, especially the US and China, the world’s biggest emitters by a wide margin.

o??The US is back. In addition to Biden, many Cabinet and Congress members personally went to COP to deliver US-led commitments and advertise the $550b written into the Build Back Better (10x larger than the biggest climate bill in US history). Expect new requirements from the SEC in the next few weeks requiring clear and consistent disclosure on net zero plans and climate risks.

o??China has been quieter than usual this year, is struggling with energy shortages from a perfect storm of volatile oil & gas, post-pandemic demand, the energy transition, and disrupted supply chains. But China already leads in the world in solar, battery, high-speed rail and now nuclear investments. And the fact that historically unlikely suspects like Modi of India, Bolsonaro of Brazil, Putin of Russia, and Erdogan of Turkey, are all committing to net zero or carbon neutrality creates enormous pressure.

After I left Glasgow, President Obama won a standing ovation for chiding big emitters for not doing enough to avert a climate disaster.) “Islands [like my birthplace of Hawaii] are the canary in the coal mine. They are sending a message now that if we don’t act – and act boldly – it’s going to be too late.”

[1] Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Leaders from 134 countries, whose countries hold 90% of global forests,?pledged?this week to conserve forests, facilitate trade that promotes sustainable development, and reduce vulnerability, build resilience and enhance rural livelihoods - among other things.?Unlike previous plans to protect forests, this one is backed by Brazil, home to Amazon jungle,?and Russia, home to the world’s largest expanse of temperate forests. It also came with a $19 billion commitment from both governments and companies. Why does it matter? Thirty-three major?financial institutions?with US$8.7 trillion in assets under management this week committed to?phase deforestation driven by agricultural commodities?out of their commodity portfolios by 2025.?Forest destruction currently draws about 40 times more financial support than forest protection, causing deforestation to produce around 8% of global CO2. Ending deforestation and boosting nature-based solutions could cover a third of the work needed to stay within 1.5°C. It will cost $700 billion per year to reverse biodiversity loss, according to?The Nature Conservancy. That’s less than 1% of global GDP and 13% of the $5.2 trillion spent on fossil fuel subsidies every year, according to the?IMF.??

[2] Global Coal to Clean Power Transition statement. Why does it matter? The burning of coal is the single largest contributor to climate change, accounting for a third of carbon emissions. Progress is underway - the US has shuttered or announced the retirement of over 65% of coal plants in the last decade, and nearly half of Europe’s coal fleet has been confirmed for retirement in the last five years, according to the updated?Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown.?

[3] The?U.S. and European Union’s much-anticipated pledge to cut methane emissions?got support from?more than 90 countries, though super-polluters China and Russia held out.

[4] $10 billion is going towards accelerating and scaling up an equitable energy transition for a billion people?in developing and emerging economies by 2030, through the Global Energy Alliance for People & Planet launching today.?