My Cloudy Crystal Ball Report for 2019

As with every approaching new year, I am both excited and reluctant to publish my ever-cloudy crystal ball predictions. Last year, amongst other things, I predicted that 2018 would be less “omni-channel, more channeling the customer.” And, if we consider the developments in retail, both online and on the ground, as best illustrated by Christmas shopping, I think I got it right. I sincerely hope my 7 predictions for 2019 prove just as accurate…Let’s dig in:

1)   There is going to be a continued renaissance of brick and mortar retail

It’s no big secret that over the past few decades, retail has lost its way. In its glory days, brick and mortar retail produced incredible shopping experiences via stores like Selfridges in London, which opened more than 100 years ago. Over time, though, stores became more concerned with cost efficiency and profit than customers. Cost before customer was and is a recipe for disaster. And successful stores are (finally) starting to wise up.

Smart retailers are returning to the original, human-first consumer model and are utilizing the efficiency of digital to enhance their customers’ shopping experience. The most successful retailers have caught on, learned from Amazon, and are offering customers a seamless option of digital-meets-human retail experience. As a result, both Selfridges and Best Buy enjoyed strong earnings in 2018…with more stores joining their ranks.

Even traditionally online retailers are recognizing the importance of offering their products in a setting where customers can touch and try out all that they have to offer. Think: Away, Casper, Warby Parker, Bonobos and more…think real experiences. And, to add to the retail renaissance, I recommend paying a visit to the newly opened Showfields on your next trip to Manhattan. It’s a new example of retail striving to harness digital-to-human innovation—rather than the other way around.

2)   We will stop pretending that the mythical online digital experience is the same as actual real-life experience with our five senses 

Online is not a replacement for real people, real experiences and real life. Driverless cars, drones, AI goggles…where are all of these so-called “robot revolutions?” Why are (smart) brick and mortar stores thriving? Why are people still skydiving, travelling and going to concerts even though they could participate via virtual reality or the internet? Because people still enjoy (and will always enjoy) the VR—Very Real—over “VR”—Virtual Reality.

We are seeing this playing out statistically as well: over the next ten years, global travel is expected to increase by nearly 4 percent. Concert attendance worldwide has skyrocketed with millennial attendance of live concerts doubling over the past four years and overall concert attendance in the UK, for example, is up by 12 percent since 2015. People want to see, smell, touch, taste, and hear new places…not just watch a show or simulation of them.

Those who follow my writing know that I am on a tear against so-called “authenticity.” To me, “authenticity” is just a way of pretending you’re doing something real when you’re not. In 2019, I think we will see a decline in the notion “authentic” and a surge in the “real.”

3)   Printed book sales will rise, while e-book sales will continue to decline.

While 2018 has been recently called as a “blockbuster year for the publishing industry,” e-book sales have slipped by 3.9 percent this year. Meanwhile hardback and paperback book sales have grown by 6.2 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively—with sales at independent bookstores up approximately 5 percent from last year. In dollar terms, those statistics mean that hardback and paperback sales generated about $4 billion combined this year, while e-books only raked in $770.9 million.

This shift in book-buying has apparently taken publishers by surprise, with many unable to keep up with the increased demand. In fact, according to The New York Times, “The backlog [in printing] is so severe that it is spilling over into next year, causing publishers to shift the release dates for some January books because they can’t print copies in time.” I think (and hope) publishers will be ready next year. There’s no replacement for the feeling of a sturdy book in your hand and the smell of ink on paper while you fall into the adventure of a great story.

Make no mistake—I’m by no means suggesting that e-books will disappear. They have an important place and will continue to remain important and useful. What I am predicting is that we’ve gotten over the impulse to pretend we don’t need printed books. And if you’re a parent who doesn’t buy printed books these days, you’re in the minority and your children are not being well served.

4)   Consumer confusion over streaming video services will continue to grow.

The competition for viewers in the streaming and cable world is a steep one. Netflix has over 125 million users, Amazon, 100 million, Hulu, 20 million, and there remains 94 million households that subscribe to traditional cable. AT&T has decided to throw its hat into the ring, taking on Netflix and other cordless competitors, by coopting them into yet a new streaming service. The company is preparing three different options for consumers when it rolls out its direct-to-consumer streaming service, planned for a beta offering in the final quarter of 2019: 1. Entry, which is movie-focused. 2. Premium, which includes high-end and popular original programming and blockbuster movies. And, finally, 3. Bundle service, which includes entry and premium services, as well as classic, kids and family, theatrical, comedy and niche/genre content.

Between Netflix, Hulu, HBO Go, Showtime, Starz, YouTube TV, Amazon Prime, AT&T, and more, who can keep up and how can people be expected to choose just one? Or two? Or three? It’s not going to happen. There will be a time of reckoning for streaming services, and it is only going to get worse before it gets better. As I’ve written before, I don’t know what companies will wise up and simplify or merge—or exactly how a unified streaming channel will look, but I do know that streamlining is inevitable. We cannot continue to cut the cord only to get tangled up in a thousand wires.

5)   Great content will continue to dominate discussion and viewing.

According to some reports, Netflix will be spending 13 billion dollars this year on creating content. But they just paid 100 million dollars in a frenzied bid to keep “Friends” streaming on their platform. You read that right—despite spending a huge amount to keep churning out new shows and films, Netflix is desperate to keep a twenty-year-old show on their site. What gives?

A familiar idiom: quality over quantity. Netflix, and also others like Hulu and Amazon Prime, dedicate huge amounts of money to cranking out a massive quantity of original content each year. But if the content isn’t good, the spending is all for naught. It’s as true for television as it is for film and literature…The Bible, Shakespeare, Harry Potter—these are the names and titles we cherish, study and discuss.  

I wonder whether our hundreds of streaming platforms will ever be able to produce their own “Friends” instead of simply streaming beloved, syndicated shows. Like I’ve already noted elsewhere, hosting “Friends” is a good way to keep users and maybe attract some new ones—but does that actually grow the platform in a meaningful way? Unlikely. That’ll require original, quality stories (which is really what the buzz-word “content” means in the first place). And while there are a number of streaming shows that I love (most notably, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) that could have an audience in twenty years, the real issue at hand is how many forgettable shows produced Friends versus The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.

6)   Consumers will begin demanding more for their data.

The value exchange that we’ve all agreed to (our data for free service) is out of whack. Companies are making too much off of our data, while we, the consumers, are being bombarded with ads/ fake news (some targeted, more often, not). And to add insult to injury, our data is sometimes then being stolen or hacked and resold for more money. 2019 is the year where the narrative will begin to change.

Many have already joined together in a mass exodus from increasingly distrusted websites and social media platforms. For example, just 51% of US individuals aged 13 to 17 said they use Facebook in a 2018 Pew study – a dramatic plunge from the 71% who said they used the social network in Pew’s previous study in 2015. My prediction? This exodus will continue until media companies make serious efforts to regain their user’s trust and create a sensible system for collecting user data. Let them impress you with their product and service and allow you to share in the revenue…you don’t owe them a thing.

And last, but not least…

7)   Amazon will continue to “shock” in non-digital ways.

Analysts predict that Amazon will open more than 3,000 Amazon Go stores by 2021. New brick and mortar stores, issuing paper Christmas catalogues…it’s just the start. And you can forget drones—Amazon is about to increase its work force and open two enormous new offices in New York and Virginia. As for the immediate future, I can certainly envision a replication of Amazon’s Whole Foods acquisition by continuing to diversify their portfolio of services offered (think: pharma).

In other words, Amazon will continue to shock us all by their total embrace of savvy retailing and business, at the heart of which is the customer. A living, breathing, discerning human who, like all other humans, wants to be treated as a valued person. So long as Amazon continues to dominate on this front, they’ll dominate on all other fronts.

In summary, the focus of successful brands will shift to human first, over the digital/ virtual/ mass quantity. 2019 could just be the year of the human and human experience…and speaking of, I hope all of my readers and followers experience a wonderful New Years. May I learn as much from you all in the coming year as I have over this past one. Onwards to 2019!