This report examines the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) during the $100000 rally

Long-Term Holder (LTH) Distribution

• Long/Short-Term Holder Threshold: LTHs have distributed approximately 507,000 BTC recently, which is significant but less than the 934,000 BTC sold during the March 2024 ATH.
• Higher Activity: Despite the smaller volume, the current rate of daily LTH distribution (0.27% of supply) surpasses the rate during the March ATH, indicating aggressive profit-taking.
• Coin Age Analysis: Coins sold primarily range from 6 months to 1 year old, showing newer holders are more active sellers than older holders.

Profit Realization

• New Record: Daily realized profits have reached an ATH of $2.02 billion.
• Demand Absorption: This high profit-taking requires robust demand to avoid price corrections and sustain upward momentum.
• Profit Cohorts:

• Coins bought in 2023 dominate current sales.
• Substantial realized profits also come from coins held for varying lengths, reflecting a diverse profit-taking strategy.

Market Sustainability

• Sell-Side Risk: Profit-taking levels are high but still below peaks from previous bull cycles. This indicates the market might still absorb the selling pressure without severe corrections.
• Price Clusters: The rapid rally created a supply gap between $76k and $88k. This “air gap” could pose a risk if the price retraces, highlighting the need for consolidation to solidify new support levels.

• Near $100k: Bitcoin is on the cusp of $100k per coin after a series of all-time highs (ATHs).
• Holder Behavior: Long-term holders (LTHs) are capitalizing on the rising prices by increasing the distribution of their holdings.

Strategic Insights

Long-term holders are strategically locking in profits gradually, which allows for potential further price rallies. Sustained demand is essential to absorb the distributed supply and stabilize prices. In contrast, recent buyers, holding coins for 6 months to a year, are more inclined to sell, while seasoned investors seem to be waiting for even higher price levels before making their moves.

Realized Profit by Coin Age:

• 6m-1y: $12.6 billion (35.3% of total)
• 1y-2y: $7.2 billion (20.16% of total)
• 2y-3y: $4.8 billion (13.44% of total)
• 3y-5y: $6.3 billion (17.64% of total)
• 5y+: $4.8 billion (13.44% of total)

Conclusion

Bitcoin's journey toward $100k is marked by significant but measured profit-taking by long-term holders. The current market dynamics indicate that while LTHs are actively distributing their holdings and locking in profits, particularly from recently acquired coins, the potential for further distribution from older holders remains. The market must absorb this supply to sustain upward momentum, and the behavior of LTHs will be critical in determining future price movements.