[Report] Dallas Federal Reserve energy survey

Dear Subscriber,

In this week's newsletter, we are thrilled to share our latest report on the Dallas Federal Reserve energy survey by our Head of Research, Brandon Myers. Covering key industry trends, from increased activity levels to the pivotal role of AI in the energy industry, this report encapsulates it all. You can download it here >>.

Continuing our theme from previous newsletters, our VP of Product Management, Ted Cross, presents 2 must-reads: "Improving Forecasts with Machine Learning", and "Improving Pre-Drill Forecasts?"

Additionally, we're sharing a clip from the Energy Bytes Podcast featuring Ted Cross discussing how our analytics deliver accurate forecasts, remove human biases, and elevate decision-making in unconventional drilling.

[Report] Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey

Dive into the latest Dallas Federal Reserve energy survey, with expert commentary from Brandon Myers. Discover the key trends shaping the industry, including the surge in activity levels and the role of AI in energy. Get the full report for detailed insights here

Improving Forecasts with Machine Learning

Have you ever struggled with forecasting young PDP wells? Geology, completions design, and well spacing are critical predictors for well performance, and by incorporating them into early-time forecasting, you can dramatically improve accuracy.

Here, I'm showing results from our PDP forecasting models on younger wells from the Permian, Williston, and Appalachia. These models use machine learning to directly forecast declines, incorporating not just prior production but also geology, completions, spacing, parent-child, etc.

This data is especially useful for younger wells, where the production data may be too noisy or non-hyperbolic to get a good fit using a traditional Arps curve. This is especially the case with public data sources!

Across these three basins, our machine learning PDP forecasts improve accuracy by 32%, 46%, and 29% on the primary production stream, compared with a traditional DCA methodology.

Why does this matter? Newer wells (<1.5 years old) make up about half of production in the L48, though it's even higher for some basins and assets. Poor forecasts on young wells leads to incorrect valuations, inaccurate supply models, and bad type curves.

Our operator customers have been using these models for over three years now to improve their forecast accuracy, but we have recently released these forecasts as a live, auto-updating data product for our subscribers.

To learn more about this study, download our URTeC paper, "Enhancing Production Forecasting Accuracy: A Machine Learning Approach in the Permian Basin"

Improving Pre-Drill Forecasts?

Recently, we looked at a case study comparing machine learning forecasts vs. decline curves for PDP forecasting accuracy. This week, pre-drill!

Here, I'm showing sample data from one of our URTeC papers, coauthored with engineers & scientists from Equinor. In this study, we generated forecasts with machine learning and traditional type curves, withholding data from 2022 and 2023 for each to measure accuracy.

Across 88% of the type curve areas, the machine learning model produced predictions that were equally or more accurate than the type curve methodology.

Machine learning can improve accuracy by generating individual-well forecasts, taking into account highly local variation not captured by type curves. As part of this study, we generated machine learning-based clusters, which in some cases overlapped with type curve areas, but not always.

While machine learning requires reservoir engineers and geologists to train and iterate models based on sound engineering judgement, the accuracy improvements and scalability makes machine learning a powerful tool in operator workflows.

To learn more about this study, download our URTeC paper, "Machine Learning vs. Type Curves in the Appalachian Basin: A Comparative Study"

[Podcast] Energy Bytes

Discover the future of oil and gas development with machine learning!

In this clip, we explain how our advanced data analytics and machine learning tools revolutionize unconventional drilling and well optimization.

Learn how accurate forecasting and smart decision-making can save millions and boost your ROI.

Ready to see what’s under the hood and how Novi Labs can help you get valuable insights?

Book your personalized demo with our team: https://novilabs.com/request-for-demo/