Repercussions of Domestic Turmoil on Nezam’s International Standing
Repercussions of Domestic Turmoil on Nezam’s International Standing
The continuing turmoil in Iran has unquestionably weakened the standing of the Nezam not only at home but, equally importantly, on the international scene, where its credibility has never been great, to begin with.
The academic Ali Khorram, a former ambassador to China, is worried about the repercussions of Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power as Israel’s prime minister, particularly at this time. In Khorram’s view, despite his entanglement in a financial scandal, Netanyahu has been able to appeal to Israeli voters by highlighting Iran’s existential threat from its nuclear program. One thing that remains unclear with a potential Netanyahu government in power is whether Israel would offer Ukraine its Iron Dome protective shield against Russian missiles, thereby aligning itself against not only Iran but also Russia—something the Jewish state has so far refused to do. The Iran-Ukraine-Israel plot thickened somewhat in an interview that the conservative website Rahbord-e Mo’aser did with Nezamoddin Zahedi, Tajikistan’s ambassador to Iran, on Ukraine’s “intentions” behind stirring up trouble between Iran and Tajikistan. The story is that Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon had a chat with Israeli businessman Leonid Nevzlin about the production of Iranian UAVs in Tajikistan, an ally of Russia (at first mistakenly identified as Uzbekistan). The story strengthens the belief that Iranian-produced drones were ending up in Russian hands for use in Ukraine. Zahedi’s reaction was predictable: a blanket denial, an insistence on the 30-year “friendship” between his country and Iran (ignoring the fact that Tajikistan had earlier been an obstacle to Iran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization until it was presumably strong-armed by Russia), and a belief that “some” were aiming to disrupt this so-called friendship with rumor-mongering. The centrist news site Nameh News worries that a fact-finding UN mission to Ukraine might find evidence of Iranian involvement there, which would further weaken Iran’s diplomatic standing. Abdolreza Faraji-Rad, a former Iranian ambassador, worries about a change of tone in comments by Robert Malley, the Biden administration’s point man on Iran. Having been considered “soft” on Iran earlier, Malley is now mentioning even a military strike as a possibility—an outcome that Faraji-Rad attributes in large part to Iran’s internal turmoil, though a close second is the Ukraine connection. Further developments in Israel (as indicated above), the results of the upcoming Congressional midterms, and a deterioration in Iran-Saudi relations promise to put the Islamic Republic under even greater pressure. Faraji-Rad wants the Islamic Republic to make it clear it is not involved in Ukraine and to take the resumption of JCPoA talks seriously.
The UN Security Council Arria-Formula meeting on the protests in Iran, featuring speeches by Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi and Iranian-born actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi, must be another source of pressure on Iran in the international arena—especially if the U.S. efforts to remove Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women yield results. While Iranian outlets published brief reports of the events of the day, emphasis was evident on favorable views of Chinese and Russian representatives for “condemning this unofficial meeting.”
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Meanwhile, Iranian authorities’ failure to restore trust and stability is clearly reflected in people’s economic decisions. Although the U.S. shift in focus on the JCPoA has featured as part of the explanations behind the rising trend in the FOREX rate, domestic and international tensions have resulted in increased demand for foreign currency for investments abroad. Kamal Seyyedali, a former CBI official, explains how citizens are moving their assets from the stock and housing markets to the FOREX and gold markets. Pointing to what he sees as solutions like the revival of the JCPoA and adherence to the FATF regulations as ways to manage the currency crisis, he argues that the government must reduce domestic and international tension. Nonetheless, he still predicts more increase in FOREX rates in the short term. Along the same lines, Mehdi Motahharnia’s assessment of the deteriorating state of the economy reveals the impact of domestic, regional, and international pressures that, among other things, hurt Iran’s economy at this time. According to this university professor, the failure of various negotiations with Iran, beginning with the presidency of Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, has proven that no compromise with the Islamic Republic is impossible: “It seems diplomacy has given up and believes it cannot have a meaningful dialogue with Iran.” Although he does not offer solutions for the current situation and only draws attention to this unpleasant state of affairs, a statement signed by former diplomats reflects the growing concern of Iran’s progressive thinkers. Urging authorities to revisit their policies and governance style, the signatories have called for balance in foreign policy and constructive engagement with all countries in the world. The statement reflects the signatories’ concerns about Iran’s standing in the international community with respect to the Ukraine war, the failure of the Ra’isi administration to revive the JCPoA, and the nation’s loss of trust in its government.
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