Repeating A Warning From September

Paying a Price for Democracy

• Original Publication on September 14, 2020

William J. Gianopulos, Managing Director, Artex Value Limited

New Introduction to an Old Article:

Living in Europe and watching my beloved USA melting down in the aftermath of recent elections is an exercise in patience and determination. We Americans are a resilient lot, and we know our failures. Still, I'm encouraged that even among local Greeks--not the intellectuals, mind you, and not those Greeks who frequent foreign universities and who are the first to get in line to offer their parochial opinions on local television. As for the average hard working Greek on the street--the 'heroes,' as I call them--everyone 'smells a rat.'

Except, it seems, for the educated classes here. Amazingly, instead of displaying righteous indignation that things look rather crooked, the elites in Greece seem more inclined to play along with the game of corrupt politics, along the Democrats in the US, and Globalists throughout the world. This should be a warning sign to Greece and the ruling party--that their own corruption remains embedded in the same sort of intellectual class that gave us decades of laughable politics in this country. The winds of change have not yet come to Greece. When intellectuals gallivant on television with their opinions on why Joe Biden is the solution for this country, you realize Greece has a long, long way to go.

Amazingly, these same university white shirts tie Biden to support for Greece against Turkey, forgetting that the long standing marriage of Biden with China already tilts the balance in favor of Turkey--against Greece! For an Ugly American to hear such nonsense, is disconcerting.

Certainly, at least 71 million Americans who voted for Donald Trump are sympathetic to the notion that the election was rigged in the worst sort of way. But Greeks watching the spectacle from afar are used to corruption on a local scale, and are flabbergasted such a thing is possible in the Land of the Free and the Brave. Americans have come to live with this kind of nonsense, understanding it is sewn into the fabric, the tapestry of the system. But I'm encouraged to hear the local 'heroes' fighting back against what is obviously a US system ridden with corruption. It all begins at the ballot box.

Perhaps this is what Populism is about. People everywhere taking to the streets to grab control back from a corrupt system and our failing, miserable leaders, to return control to the people. Our countries need to unleash the voices of our heroes, the hard working families who our political classes have left behind.

This not about Socialism or Fascism or Communism. Nor is it about growing our governments larger and sucking the air from our economies under the guise of keeping everyone safe and secure. No. What we are witnessing FIRST in the USA--and which will hopefully spill over from America to the rest of the world--is an example of our heroes taking back the streets. This is the kind of Populism we need.

One of the great ironies historians will write about one day is that the appearance of Donald Trump on the world stage has turned the Republican Party into the Party of the Workers (heroes), while the Democrats going the opposite direction, becoming the Party of the Elites, the Media, Social Media, the intellectual classes, those who work for the arms of government, and our STATE structures. CIA, FBI, NSA, State Department, et al. Every country has five times more government than is required, but the US is becoming a new breed of protected elites.

Also, more important, Donald Trump was the first Republican president in modern history to open the ears of his own party to the voices of Blacks, Hispanics, blue collar workers, foreign residents who have entered the country legally to live the American Dream and contribute to the country.

Anyone who followed this week's election, knows the 'heroes' of America were ruthlessly robbed by the STATE apparatus. Again, the irony is particularly palpable for someone like me who listens to the parade of government officials flying from America to advise others about the importance of our 'Democratic Institutions,' like Elections.

I wrote the following article back in September, when I realized we were setting up for big trouble in early November. I'm reprinting this piece to remind both Americans and onlookers from abroad that not much separates the First World of America from the Third World of Dictators and Corrupt Politicians. Perhaps this is what the Globalists mean when they say, proudly, "The world is getting smaller"!?

One final observation. For those who understand Donald Trump: He is not the type who "goes gentle into that good night." He fights vigorously for people, not only HIS people. Not only has he lost money by being President (probably hundreds of $Millions), Trump is one of only three US Presidents who has never taken a salary--giving it away instead to various charities. He's a politician who doesn't need the money, an increasingly rare bird these days.

For those in the US looking to take back their country from this institutionalized corruption, Donald Trump is the only person who could possibly address this situation, and he will, like an attack dog. Bet on it. The Democrats should be terrified, because if Trump wins this effort in the coming days, he will also destroy the institutions that have kept the hoards of rats in politics alive for a generation. The 'heroes' could change the system forever, to be sure. Maybe some lasting good will come of this carnage. Watch the Heroes in the coming days. And for those readers who prefer politics-as-entertainment, enjoy David Bowie sing about being heroes for just one day.....

Enjoy the article, again.

Paying a Price for Democracy

Original Publication, September 14, 2020

As we've noted before, reading the tea leaves of politics is important to gauge the future for investments. The US is approaching an election in 50 days that could be a watershed for both markets and society, with implications for generations.  The chaos we read about in US media about the future of the upcoming election is no joke; for many, it is indeed serious stuff, and investors should pay close attention to how things unfold as we approach November 3, 2020.

What concerns us more than anything is the murky method some Americans are using to cast their ballots. For the first time in its history, the US is sending so-called ‘mail in ballots’ through the postal system to about 80 million US addresses. Some politicians blame COVID for this change, claiming the virus limits voters’ freedom and ability to cast ballots in person on election day. But the problem with this logic is most states instituting this method of voting are 'locked-down' by design, which begs the question: Is the tail wagging the dog? The majority of these ballots are distributed in states controlled and run by Democrats, the more left wing party of the two-party arrangement in the US.  

The very politicians who run these locked-down states are crying the loudest claiming mail-in ballots are the only solution for ensuring free and fair elections. Of course, problems with such a strategy are epic, and stories abound from recent history to support the notion that many elections are, indeed, manipulated by US politicians for purposes of maintaining their own futures, and the survival of a corrupt system. But this year may find US elections changing forever, and not for the better.

I was a very young boy in Chicago when John F. Kennedy became President in 1960. Reliable legend has it that the Democrat mayor of Chicago, Richard J. Daley, one of the politicians who perfected the term "machine politics," worked his team of city workers during election day to resurrect some 100,000 dead residents of Chicago to vote for Kennedy, his supporters stuffing ballot boxes late into the evening to help put Kennedy over the top.

Living in Greece, a country that tends to have a reputation for delays and bureaucracy, I marvel at the seamless process of voting for political parties and leaders. Elections here run like a clock. They usually take place on Sundays, giving everyone time to return to his/her place of registry and to vote in person. In Greece, the winner of each election is obvious within an hour or two of the polls closing. It’s clean, organized, transparent, predictable, and well attended.

By contrast, it's a good bet that the upcoming elections in the US will be marred by delays, lawsuits and political chaos for weeks after November 3. In a close election, one likely scenario finds streets full of rioters causing all manner of disturbances, rendering what we have witnessed the past few months timid by comparison. We can imagine Trump calling out the National Guard to restore order, etc... As this process plays out and the corrupt legal system in the US tries to find a solution, the lack of an outcome will also sink US markets, which will in turn destroy global markets, and hurt the US Dollar. 

All of which brings us to a discussion of the photograph at the top of this article. The story is noteworthy, particularly as it highlights the price some citizens of our world pay for their own Democracy.

Over the weekend, Afghanistan signed what seems to be an historic agreement to begin the process toward a peace deal with the Taliban, ending decades of war and acrimony. In a series of meetings now in Doha, Qatar, the two sides--the Afghanistan government and the Taliban--both bitter enemies for a generation, sit across tables trying to find remedy to integrate the Taliban into the political process—something Republicans and Democrats in the US haven’t been able to accomplish the past four years. These negotiations in Qatar are a result of the Trump Administration working for the last few years to bring together these two factions of Afghanistan, with the goal of demilitarizing the region, removing US Troops, and encouraging independence by Afghanis.

The starting point for negotiations occurred several years ago, when the US urged Afghanistan to introduce Democratic elections into the country--the first time in a generation. With the Taliban circulating in the shadows during those elections, threatening the lives of citizens who voted, the country turned out in masse at the polling stations, surprising observers. In 2014, 7 million citizens voted in a country of 12 million inhabitants, or 58%. This participation rate is above the numbers in the US and many European countries.

The big contrast between the US and the 'underdeveloped' country in question is some voters in Afghanistan paid a high price to participate in the process. During the 2014 election, the Taliban cut off the index fingers of several voters, threatening their families with even graver harm if they went to the polls. As many know, in some developing countries index fingers are inked as voters cast their ballots, their fingerprints affixed to the ballot to ensure security and integrity. Such is the case in Afghanistan.

The photograph above appeared in a news story from Reuters in 2019, during Afghanistan’s most recent election. It shows Saifullah Safi holding up two hands—one with a severed index finger from the previous election in 2014 when, for obvious reasons, his vote didn't count--and the other from the most recent election in 2019, the remaining index finger from the other hand inked after voting. We can infer Mr. Safi took the risk to vote again in the recent election because he believed it was worth the price of another index finger to participate in Afghanistan’s future. 

Strangely enough, it was US government 'experts' that encouraged the inked-finger approach to casting ballots, as it tried to turn around the seemingly ‘backward’ country of Afghanistan.

And we ask the question--the elephant in the room: In the US, wouldn’t it be novel if voters showed up at elections in Los Angeles or New York or Chicago with the same inked-finger-approach to submitting their ballots?

Instead, on November 3, many Americans will resort to mailing in unsolicited ballots through the postal system, threatening the integrity of their government and its future. Certainly there will be delays, uncertainty and fraud. Who in his right mind risks sending anything important through the postal system that he doesn’t want to lose or misplace? Our postal systems are the laughing stock of stand-up comics, hardly an endorsement for security in Democracy.

Looking again at the photo at the top, one asks the question, “Which of these two systems would an intelligent person use to provide optimal security and transparency in the next election?” 

Sometimes--and more often lately---I muse on the conundrum that the US considers itself a first-rate power in matters of principle. Instead, it seems we're rather good at preaching to others in the world how to conduct their affairs.

Certainly we can conclude the system of voting in Afghanistan is superior to the new US system--that is, if your goal is security and transparency. And if you're still an unbeliever, I'm sure Mr. Safi can convince you that ensuring elections is well worth the price of Democracy.