Reopening schools is not a Covid-19 mitigation strategy, it’s an accelerant

On Tuesday, President-elect Joe Biden announced three Covid-19 priorities for the first 100 days of his administration. He’s asking all Americans to wear masks for those 100 days, he plans to get “at least 100 million Covid vaccine shots into the arms of the American people,” and he wants to reopen the majority of schools. The first priority is an empty request, the second is a step in the right direction, and the third is a step in the wrong direction. This is not a strategy for “changing the course of the disease,” this is a signal to the American people that we are still largely on our own in the fight against the disease. Biden did get one thing right, though, when he said we are in for a “very dark winter.”

The first priority for Biden is a request for people to mask up; a request that has been made countless times over the past eight months. Asking people to mask up is going to do little to nothing to stop the spread of Covid-19, because asking does not translate into changes in individual practices. In fact, the most aggressive anti-maskers are going to relish being asked by the new president to mask up so they can continue to defy the request to engage in one of the simplest, least burdensome, most effective, and most considerate acts that one can take during this pandemic.

Biden also said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office to mandate mask use where he could “under the law,” primarily in federal buildings and on planes, trains, and buses traveling between states. That would merely codify existing policies, effectively changing nothing.

The second priority for Biden would have a positive impact, although there seems to be some confusion over what the scale of that impact would be. 100 million vaccine shots is a good thing insofar as it is a necessary milepost on the path toward vaccinating virtually every person who is physically able to get the vaccine. But there are 330 million people in the United States. Does 100 million shots mean 100 million vaccinated, or 50 million vaccinated because they need two shots? Either way, it is not nearly enough to establish herd immunity, even if we include the almost 15 million people who have thus far contracted Covid-19 without dying. While every immunized person decreases a possible vector for the disease, and the more who are immunized the better, even 200 million immunized people would not make it safe to bring people back together indoors. And schools are indoor places where students, teachers, and staff congregate.

Which brings us to the third priority for Biden which is more of a misguided, aspirational goal than a priority. Even if we assume the impossible best of his first two priorities, that every person in the US wore masks and 100 million people got vaccinated, it still would not make his third so-called priority appropriate, safe, or in any way change the course of the disease “for the better.”

Biden claimed that it was a “national priority to get our kids back to school,” but also promised that his team would “follow the science.” Well, following the science (which continues to evolve) would suggest that reopening schools can only make the pandemic worse. I know that may shock many people who have seen endless stories from the media about the need to reopen schools now, in the worst stage of the pandemic. But those pieces are not based on “the science” as much as they are based on the priorities of government (e.g., preventing civil unrest), business (e.g., childcare for workers), and the schooling-industrial complex (e.g., seat time, testing).

The influence of special interests who benefit from schools being open, pandemic be damned, are why the media pieces rely on claims that reopening schools can be safe, with the caveat that proper safety measures must be in place being buried a few paragraphs down. But there are no safety measures available to schools that can make bringing together large groups of people indoors safe. Hence they cannot be safely reopened. And that is why the pieces rely on claims that students are less likely to die from the disease, eagerly ignoring that those students can still take the disease home to their families, to people who are not less likely to die, allowing the pandemic to grow from there. They also focus on the lower fatality rate for kids because they cannot do so for teachers and staff, and those articles don’t want you to concern yourself with the health and welfare of teachers and staff.

“The science” actually overwhelmingly suggests that schools should be closed, now, and through Biden’s first 100 days. First, we are in a period of widespread, out of control community spread of the disease. This is why infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are higher than they’ve been at any point of the pandemic. Yesterday, a record 3,054 people died from Covid-19, which was over 10% greater than what was previously the deadliest day of the pandemic. For reference, yes, that is more than the number of people who died on September 11, 2001. And when there is widespread, out of control community spread, “the science” says it is a terrible idea to bring people together because of the elevated likelihood that someone in the group may be infected.

Second, kids being less likely to spread the disease does not mean that they do not spread the disease. Even if kids are only half as likely to spread the disease that means they are still spreading the disease. That means that bringing kids together in schools is going to result in the spread of the disease. And this narrative of kids being less likely to spread the disease once again conveniently ignores that schools are actually workplaces for teachers and staff.

Third, bringing large groups of people together indoors is how superspreader events come into being. At least most schools require masking right now, but it is by no means universal. And other than the masking part, for the schools that actually take it seriously, everything else about schooling right now facilitates the transmission of Covid-19. Schools are where large numbers of people come together; in close proximity to one another; in enclosed spaces; for long periods of time; and where people are talking, yelling, or breathing heavily. Many argue that schools “aren’t the primary drivers of Covid-19,” but neither are cruise ships. And we can all recognize how stupid it would be to focus on filling up cruise ships as a national priority, right?

It is incomprehensible that Biden would make reopening a majority of schools by the end of April a priority to “change the course of the disease.” Bringing people together in schools can only increase infections; schools cannot possibly decrease infections. Each school is a potential superspreader site, and yes, schools have been documented as superspreader sites. And while schools may not be the “primary drivers” of the disease, superspreaders likely are. The only two responsible options when it comes to schooling is to go remote, or to go outdoors.

----

Original post