The reopening conundrum, part II

Which businesses to re-open first?

Recently I published thoughts on how the re-opening of our economy must be informed by epidemiological and healthcare concerns and by an understanding of consumer behavior, and how this might result in a staggered opening within a particular state, and hopefully a coordinated approach among governments within a multi-state region. Understanding the tangled web of business interconnectivity is the third leg of this complex triangle.

It’s obvious that if you allow manufacturing firms to re-open without allowing the companies that supply them with raw materials and services to reopen, the manufacturers will languish. Many of the other connections between businesses are much more subtle, and government leaders are NOT going to be able to figure them out on their own. This is truly time for what FEMA calls a “whole of community” approach (not that they practice it well, but that’s another article). The person who runs the corner store is the best person to advise on the essential links directly up and down the supply chain, and identify the business which also must open in order for her to have both things to sell and customers to buy. Chambers of commerce and community leaders are both the crowdsourcing leaders of ideas and the force multipliers of advice.

We can look at the trouble with rebuilding and reopening after Hurricane Katrina as an example of what to do (and what not to do). It’s hard to re-open a community without banks, but it’s hard to expect banks to re-open without customers. This chicken-and-egg conundrum requires lots of clear thinking and a willingness to try things at small scale, make adjustments, and accept that some decisions will be wrong – all things at which governments tend to struggle.

Ideas for restaurants

How restaurants openings are staggered is of critical importance. If you open the restaurants on the north side of town first, you’ll encourage travel to that part of town, and you’ll encourage crowding in those areas of town, and both of those behaviors are counterproductive to flattening the curve.

Perhaps public health agencies should go through their lists and start with the ten or twenty percent of restaurants in each area who had, in the past, consistently scored the highest on previous inspections. In theory, they’ll be the cleanest, and the easiest to inspect and approve for re-opening. They deserve special treatment (unless they’ve gotten their higher rankings through graft, but if we can’t start this process with a basic trust in the integrity of public health inspectors, then we’re all screwed). Then, within those highest-scoring restaurants, perhaps they are approved for an every-third-table reopening for a few weeks. That will let them re-open more gradually and allow for the phased approach we need. In theory, those “healthiest” restaurants are scattered equally around each town.

Governments must open first

Of this I’m certain. Three reasons are explained in my next article on this subject.