The reopening conundrum, part I

We can’t reopen the US state by state. It must be done in a more focused way, and the public is going to hate it.

We must coordinate the reopening based on public health and healthcare issues. But we also must consider people’s behavior, and the intricate web of interconnected production and consumption patterns, which few people understand.

Public Health and Healthcare Issues

It is likely that Northern California and Southern California have seen different impacts from COVID-19 and on different schedules. It is equally likely that rural California has seen still different impacts. If decisions are to be made based on epidemiological considerations, understanding those impacts might suggest a different reopening schedule for different areas of the same state.

Healthcare capacity is widely offered as another condition for reopening. Let’s give exhausted, exposed healthcare professionals a chance to rest and recover, and then to document and share their lessons learned, before we invite the next wave elsewhere. This, too, may dictate that certain areas within a state are ready to reopen before others.

Consumer behavior

Consumer behavior is another concern. If northern Virginia opens up its barber shops and beauty salons but the District of Columbia doesn’t, then many DC residents will head out to northern Virginia to get their hair done. The only thing worse than DC residents going shopping before the District deems it safe, is DC residents traveling a greater distance to do it! They’ll both spread their germs into Northern Virginia and pick up some new ones to bring back to the District. The entire DC region, which includes much of Maryland and a small, heavily populated portion of Virginia, must act in synch.

This is true in the New York metropolitan area. Northern New Jersey needs to be on the same schedule as New York City, Long Island, Westchester, and suburban Connecticut. But the Philadelphia area might open earlier or later, depending on their healthcare concerns, and Camden and other western New Jersey locales may open before or after. That’s going to put a strain on New Jersey’s governor, who must carefully draw a line across his state if the opening dates are not the same.

Which businesses first?

Perhaps the most complex set of decisions to be made involve those that allow us to phase in the reopening of the economy. Each business that opens needs both suppliers and customers, and finding the best formula for reopening is one that must be both logical and fair. That’s the topic of my next article.

Conclusion

It’s certain that no one will get this exactly right the first time. Therefore, we also need a robust process for sharing our formulas, our decisions, our success stories, and, most importantly, our mistakes, in real time across the country. That process has been sorely lacking throughout this crisis.

As always, I welcome your contributions to these thoughts.