'Renfield' and 'The Pope's Exorcist' Are Not Spooking Audiences Away From 'Mario' - Ticket Sales Tracking (4/10-4/13)

Hi,

I've been tracking ticket sales for movies recently at my two local NJ AMCs that do fairly well.

Last week, my tracking for?The Super Mario Bros. Movie?got me to a Wed total of?$29.08M.?Even this explosive predictions came in just under the actuals of?$31.7M. While not as explosive as predicted, my?Air?tracking led to a Wed total of?$4.64M, nearly double actuals. Even though actuals were clearly lower than my prediction, this was still an impressive effort for counter-programming that will play off in the weeks to come.

Apparently April is the new spooky season as we are seeing two major wide releases this week in the horror genre with?Renfield?and?The Pope's Exorcist.?As a niche, R-Rated, comedy, genre title starring Nicolas Cage, Renfield's best comparison is looking to be another fellow niche, R-Rated, comedy, genre title starring Nicolas Cage in?The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent.?On the possession side of horror, Russell Crowe is attempting a new profession as The Pope's Exorcist. Due to its horror nature and small outing, we will use?Barbarian?as a comp. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.

After may attempts of a revitalization, Universal is coming out of the gate?once again?with another interpretation of Dracula. Only this time, the fanged legend is played by Nicolas Cage, is a comedy, focuses on the assistant, and has no pressure on kickstarting its own cinematic universe. Yet, it does not look like these factors are enough to draw in audiences. For Thursday, ticket sales grew at a reasonable pace in both locations. The only issue is that ticket sales already started off low. At this rate, Renfield is looking at a?$.93M?Thursday night compared to TUWOMT. While that is a decent start at the title, things have not been looking as kind for Friday. In a weird trend, sales for Friday at Theater 1 are low, but a relatively good growing pace, which is fine. The issue is that Theater 2 did not grow in sales on its last day. While Theater 2 is not as keen on horror titles, this has?really?thrown off tracking as Renfield's Friday is now currently looking at?$1.25M.?That number is just too low to be accurate. Rather fittingly, all theaters for Renfield are running just slightly behind TUWOMT in theater capacities, showing a healthy comparison. That is, all, but Theater 2 for Friday. Personally, I believe that Friday's number is much lower than what the actuals will be, but this is a sign that Renfield is not looking to be another Universal breakout, a la Violent Night, M3GAN, or Cocaine Bear.

Maybe mashing up genres isn't always the most effective as the safer possession title of The Pope's Exorcist is looking to fair a little better with audiences. For Thursday, TPE had, like Renfield, small sells to begin with, some decent growth, but just an embarrassment representation at Theater 2. Once again, Theater 2 is not as walk-up friendly or one that attracts the horror crowd. At this rate, TPE is looking at a?$.82M?Thursday compared to Barbarian. For a title with middling reviews and rather small marketing campaign, I would say this is a decent start to the weekend. Keeping up the pace is an almost as impressive Friday. Despite what the small sales may seem, if TPE keeps pace to its comp of Barbarian, the horror title will be aiming towards a?$3.59M?Friday. That's right, higher than Renfield. In regards to seat capacity, TPE is pacing ahead of Barbarian at all times except Theater 2's Thursday which had a stronger showing. To be fair, Barbarian was a bizarre horror WOM story that TPE is not likely to replicate. Still, this is a decent opening for all things considered.

Overall, this will bring Renfield to an opening Th+F of?$2.18M. Once again, these bizarre Friday numbers are really dragging this estimate down. There is no chance the opening goes this low. For The Pope's Exorcist, we are looking at a much more encouraging Th+F opening of?$4.41M.?Due to the comparison of Barbarian, I believe Russell Crowe won't be able to hit the high of a mark, but still a worthy opening, nonetheless. If these numbers hold, Renfield would barely get to?$5M?for the weekend. For The Pope's Exorcist, these demons are about to spook up?$11M?in sales. No matter what either film makes this weekend, one thing is for certain...Mario is going to dominate and stick around for weeks to come.

I have taken some suggestions to help make this post better. Please comment if you have anymore!

TL;DR:

Renfield:

Thursday:?$.93M

Friday:?$1.25M -?absolutely going higher

Opening Day:?$2.18M -?will go up as well

The Pope's Exorcist:

Thursday:?$.82M

Friday:?$3.59M -?likely lower for actual

Opening Day:?$4.41M