Renewable Natural Gas and Electrification

The country is on an ambitious plan to get to a net zero emission electric grid by 2050.? Simultaneously, the move to electrify everything else that uses traditional fossil fuel combustion, such as in transportation, industrial processes, and even heating and hot water continues as well.? Of course, the thinking is that as we get to zero emission electric grid while simultaneously electrifying everything we will get to a zero carbon emission economy.?

But is this all we should be doing??

While we are getting to that zero-carbon emission point the earth falls deeper and deeper into a cycle of ever-increasing methane releases with a growing dangerous feedback mechanism setting in.? As the earth warms more methane is released; as the tundra in northern Canada and Asia thaw; as well as from lakes and sea beds.? This is a great concern, because methane is 25 times powerful a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide.? This increase in methane releases is added to the increase in methane releases from our landfills and agricultural processes as our insatiable appetite for living continues around the globe.?

My concern is that methane releases will soon overwhelm any effort we achieve seeking a zero emission electric grid.? I am also concerned our focus on electrifying everything has had the effect of demonizing the very industry capable of providing the solutions to our methane problem; the natural gas utility industry and its suppliers.?

Why am I concerned?? Because I believe we will actually have more warming than less in the near-term buildup to a zero emission grid by 2050 if we don’t get this right.

Consider the following scenario.? The federal government is rapidly replacing gas boilers with electric boilers and heat pumps wherever possible as part of the new rules coming down through the various agencies.? The Navy just released a general order requiring the electrification of everything.

Consider that boiler mentioned above.? A new condensing natural gas boiler operates with an efficiency of over 96%.? That means the input of a therm of natural gas yields 95,000 BTUs of heat output.? The carbon dioxide released for that that 96,000 BTUs of heat is approximately 12 pounds.? An electric boiler producing that same amount of heat would require 28.1 kWh of electrical energy.? Currently the national average for emissions is 0.857 lbs of CO2 per kWh (about 15% below the baseline 2005 national average).? That means the same heat output from an electric boiler causes the release of 24.1 pounds carbon dioxide, about double that of the natural gas boiler.? Even if we achieve the goal of 50% reduction by 2030 (another 35% from today) in the electric grid, the natural gas boiler still is lower in emissions than the electric boiler by about 25%.? ?

But what about the electric heat pump?? Yes, an electric heat pump is about 2.5 times more efficient than the straight resistance electric boiler.? Thus, you can make the argument that by going to a heat pump for heating will reduce emissions for that 95,000 BTUs to 9.6 pounds today and down to 6.3 pounds by 2030, assuming we are successful in reducing electric grid emissions to 50% below the 2005 baseline in 2030.? ??

According to the Princeton 2020 Net-Zero America Project, even with the new spending for renewables in the President’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) legislation, we are going to miss the mark by nine percentage points in 2030.?

Now consider that same boiler operated on renewable natural gas.? The collection of fugitive methane from landfills, food wastes, industrial processes, or agricultural (bovine and hog methane), is considered renewable natural gas and can be piped into the pipeline and tracked using renewable natural gas attributes (RNGA).? These RNGA are tracked and traded to be used by consumers of natural gas at point-of-use as equal to using the renewable natural gas in the aforementioned boiler.?

This method is very similar to the one used by utilities and many companies beginning nearly 25 years ago in the voluntary market for Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) that helped initiate the progress to increasing renewables on the electric grid.? Arguably, this has helped us achieve the 15% reduction in overall grid emissions since 2005.? I am advocating for the same type of program with support from the Federal Government, as was done for the electrical industry back in 2001 with the EPA Green Power Partnership.?

Instead, the current rule by the EPA to require all leaks in the mining and piping business only goes half-way, and threatens to put out of business the very members of the natural gas industry that could help us mine for renewable natural gas.? And, as we continue to electrify everything, we are taking away the opportunity to use renewable natural gas in the end uses we have.? Our limited focus on methane is tying our hands to deal with it.

Why is this important?

Consider again that natural gas boiler now operated with renewable natural gas.? It now achieves a greenhouse benefit of 24 x 12 pounds (because methane is 25 times as powerful as a warming gas as carbon dioxide) or 288 pounds of CO2e.? Even a heat pump system on zero emission renewable energy cannot achieve the benefit for lowering the earth’s temperature that a high-efficient natural gas boiler using renewable natural gas can.? ???

Rather than demonizing the natural gas industry, and even putting rules in place that threaten their existence, lets, support them in the direction of making renewable natural gas on the pipeline in the same way we did with electric utilities 25 years ago.

It’s still not too late.? ?