Renewable Energy will reach 49 Per cent in India by 2040

India significantly expands its coal fleet over the next five years, adding over 40GW of new coal plants. Following that, we expect coal new build to slow but existing plant utilisation to increase, pushing up coal consumption by around 3% per year through the 2020s. From 2030, solar begins to sideline coal in India, with the pace of PV additions more than doubling from the 2020s to the 2030s.

Onkareshwar Pandey

New Delhi [India] June 17 (ANI): As batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster the reach of renewables, the renewable energy will be reaching 49% in India, 55% in China, 74% penetration in Germany and 38% in the U.S.by 2040 anticipates newly released Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) annual long-term analysis of the future of energy- 2017 New Energy Outlook (NEO). 

“Wind and solar energy account for 48% of installed capacity and 34% of electricity generation world-wide by 2040. This is compared with just 12% and 5% today. Installed solar capacity increases 14-fold and wind capacity fourfold by 2040. We anticipate renewable energy reaching 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the U.S., 55% in China and 49% in India by 2040 as batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster the reach of renewable,” report says.

According to the Forecast, both India and China account for 28 percent and 15 percent of all investment in power generation till 2040.

According to BNEF forecast, “China will go big on renewables, with wind and solar capacity increasing eight-fold to 2040. Coal consumption in China peaks in 2026, but at a level 20% higher than today. Nevertheless, China remains the world’s largest coal consumer and emitter, with that fuel still accounting for 30% of the generation mix in 2040.”

Talking about coal energy in India, the BNEF forecast suggests, “India significantly expands its coal fleet over the next five years, adding over 40GW of new coal plants. Following that, we expect coal new build to slow but existing plant utilisation to increase, pushing up coal consumption by around 3% per year through the 2020s. From 2030, solar begins to sideline coal in India, with the pace of PV additions more than doubling from the 2020s to the 2030s.

However, the global power sector emissions peak in 2026 at 14.1Gt, then decline by one percent per year out to 2040. This is a steeper decline than in our previous forecast, mainly due to a faster rate of Chinese coal retirements compared with NEO 2016. We also expect India's emissions to be 44 percent lower by 2040 than in our NEO 2016 analysis, as that country embraces solar and invests USD 405 billion to construct 660GW of new PV.

The BNEF report predicts that global emissions to peak in 2026 and then start to fall, as coal fired power starts to fizzle out in India and China.

“The report suggests that the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable, thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power,” said Seb Henbest, lead author of the report at BNEF.

Alongside the growth of renewable generation capacities, supporting technologies such as storage will also continue their impressive growth. BNEF expects the global lithium-ion battery market to be worth $239 billion between now and 2040, and for electric vehicles to account for 13% of electricity generation in the U.S. As manufacturers scale up to meet this demand, the cost of lithium-ion technology is expected to fall by 73% by 2030.

“This year’s forecast shows EV smart charging, small scale battery systems, plus utility storage on the grid,” said BNEF lead analyst Elena Giannakopolou, “playing a big part in smoothing out the peaks and troughs in supply caused by variable wind and solar generation.”

The latest long-term forecast from analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts solar energy costs to drop a further 66 percent by 2040, and onshore wind by 47 percent. Given these predictions, BNEF expect that renewables will undercut the majority of fossil based generation by 2030, even in India and China.

Here are the 10 major highlights of the report:

1 - Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity

72% of the $10.2 trillion spent on new power generation worldwide to 2040 will be invested in new wind and solar PV plants.  

2- Solar energy’s challenge to coal gets broader

Solar is already at least as cheap as coal in Germany, Australia, the U.S., Spain and Italy. The levelized cost of electricity from solar is set to drop another 66% by 2040.By 2021, it will be cheaper than coal in China, India, Mexico, the U.K. and Brazil as well. 

3 - Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster

Onshore wind levelized costs will fall 47% by 2040, thanks to cheaper, more efficient turbines and advanced OPEX regimes. In the same period, offshore wind costs will slide a whopping 71%, helped by experience, competition, and economies of scale.  

4 - China and India lead in energy investment

They account for 28% and 11% of all investment in power generation to 2040.  Just under a third of Asia Pacific’s investment in energy will go to wind, a third to solar, 18% to nuclear and 10% to coal and gas.

5 - Batteries and flexibility bolster the reach of renewables

Utility-scale batteries increasingly compete with natural gas to provide system flexibility at times of peak demand. In conjunction with small-scale batteries, this will help renewable energy reach 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the U.S., 55% in China and 49% in India by 2040. 

6- Electric vehicles bolster electricity use

In Europe and the U.S., EVs will account for 13% and 12% of electricity demand by 2040.  Charging EVs flexibly, when renewables are generating and wholesale prices are low, will help the system adapt to intermittent solar and wind.

7- Homeowners’ love of solar grows

By 2040, rooftop PV will account for as much as 24% of electricity in Australia, 20% in Brazil, 15% in Germany, 12% in Japan, and 5% in the U.S. and India.  This, combined with the growth of large-scale renewables, reduces the need for existing large-scale coal and gas plants.

8 - Coal’s point of no return

Sluggish demand, cheap renewables and coal-gas fuel switching slash coal use by 87% in Europe and 45% in the U.S. by 2040, while coal generation continues to grow in China but reaches peak in 2026. A mere 18% of planned new coal power plants will ever get built. That means 369GW of projects stand to be cancelled. 

9- Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think

Gas-fired power sees $804 billion in new investment and 16% more capacity by 2040. But save for the Americas, where gas is plentiful and cheap, gas plants will mainly act as one of the flexible technologies needed to help meet peaks and provide system stability. 

10- Global power sector emissions peak in 2027

CO2 emissions from power generation increase by a tenth before peaking in 2026, then falling faster than we previously estimated, lining up with China's peak coal generation.  However, a further $5.3 trillion investment in 3.9TW of zero-carbon capacity would be required to keep the planet on a 2-degrees-Celsius trajectory.

(ANI)