Renewable Energy to Generate Record 30% of Global Electricity in 2023, Reports Ember Think Tank
Renewable energy generated a record 30% of global electricity in 2023, driven by the growth of solar and wind power. With record construction of solar and wind energy in 2023, a new era of declining fossil fuel generation is imminent. 2023 was likely the turning point, marking the peak of emissions in the energy sector.
Ember’s Fifth Annual Global Electricity Review provides the first comprehensive overview of the changes in global electricity generation in 2023, based on reported data. It presents underlying trends and probable implications for energy sources and emissions in the near future. With the report, Ember is also releasing the first full, free dataset of global electricity generation in 2023.
The report analyzes electricity data from 215 countries, including the latest 2023 data for 80 countries representing 92% of global electricity demand. The analysis also includes data from 13 geographic and economic groups, such as Africa, Asia, the EU, and the G7. It also delves into the six largest CO2-emitting countries and regions, which account for more than 72% of global energy sector emissions, and the Annex provides an overview of another 25 major polluting countries.
We make all data freely accessible to allow others to conduct their own analyses and help accelerate the shift to clean electricity.
Executive Summary
Record Renewables Propel the World Toward a New Era of Declining Fossil Generation
Renewable energy generated a record 30% of global electricity in 2023, driven by the growth of solar and wind power. With record construction of solar and wind energy in 2023, a new era of declining fossil fuel generation is imminent. 2023 was likely the turning point, marking the peak of emissions in the energy sector.
The renewable energy revolution, led by solar and wind power, is breaking records and driving increasingly clean electricity production. The world is now at a tipping point where solar and wind not only curb emissions growth but actually begin to push fossil generation into decline.
In fact, the expansion of clean capacity would have been sufficient to achieve a drop in global energy sector emissions in 2023. However, drought caused a five-year low in hydropower, creating a deficit largely covered by coal. Nevertheless, the latest forecasts give confidence that 2024 will usher in a new era of declining fossil generation, marking 2023 as the probable peak of energy sector emissions.
Renewable Energy Provided 30% of Global Electricity for the First Time
In 2023, the growth of solar and wind power pushed the world past 30% renewable electricity for the first time. Renewables have expanded from 19% of global electricity in 2000, driven by an increase in solar and wind power from 0.2% in 2000 to a record 13.4% in 2023. China was the main contributor in 2023, accounting for 51% of additional global solar generation and 60% of new global wind generation. Combined with nuclear power, the world generated nearly 40% of its electricity from low-carbon sources in 2023. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation reached a new historic low, 12% below its peak in 2007.
Solar Power Was the Main Provider of Electricity Growth in 2023
Solar power is leading the energy revolution. It was the fastest-growing source of electricity generation for the 19th consecutive year and surpassed wind to become the largest source of new electricity for the second consecutive year. In fact, solar power added more than twice the new electricity that coal did in 2023. The record increase in installations at the end of 2023 means an even greater increase in solar generation is expected in 2024.
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Hydropower Fell to Its Lowest Level in Five Years, Preventing an Emissions Drop in 2023
Drought conditions led to a record drop in hydropower generation, which fell to its lowest level in five years. Under normal conditions, the clean capacity added during 2023 would have been sufficient to allow for a 1.1% drop in fossil generation. However, the hydropower deficit was covered by an increase in coal generation, leading to a 1% rise in global energy sector emissions. 95% of the increase in coal generation in 2023 occurred in four countries severely affected by drought: China, India, Vietnam, and Mexico.
Demand Growth Slowed in 2023, but Will Only Increase in the Future
Global electricity demand hit an all-time high in 2023, with an increase of 627 TWh, equivalent to adding the entire demand of Canada (+607 TWh). However, the 2.2% increase in 2023 was below the average of recent years, due to a sharp decline in demand in OECD countries, particularly the US (-1.4%) and the EU (-3.4%). In contrast, rapid demand growth in China (+6.9%) was equivalent to total global demand growth in 2023. More than half of the increase in electricity demand in 2023 was due to five technologies: electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, electrolyzers, air conditioning, and data centers. The spread of these technologies will accelerate electricity demand growth, but overall energy demand will decrease as electrification is much more efficient than fossil fuels.
A New Era of Declining Energy Sector Emissions Is About to Begin
Ember forecasts that fossil generation will fall slightly in 2024, leading to larger declines in subsequent years. Demand growth in 2024 is expected to be higher than in 2023 (+968 TWh), but clean generation growth is projected to be even higher (+1300 TWh), resulting in a 2% drop in global fossil generation (-333 TWh). The deployment of clean generation, led by solar and wind, has already helped slow the growth of fossil fuels by nearly two-thirds over the past ten years. As a result, half of the world’s economies have already experienced at least five years of peak fossil fuel electricity generation. OECD countries are at the forefront of this: energy sector emissions collectively peaked in 2007 and have fallen 28% since then.
The next decade will see the energy transition enter a new phase. A permanent decline in fossil fuel use in the energy sector is now inevitable globally, leading to a drop in sector emissions. Clean electricity additions, led by solar and wind, are already forecast to surpass demand growth in the next decade, ensuring moderate reductions in fossil fuel use and emissions even as demand accelerates to meet growing electrification needs and other booming technologies.
To achieve international climate change goals, this is crucial, as multiple analyses have found that the energy sector should be the first to decarbonize: by 2035 in OECD countries and by 2045 globally. The sector currently emits the most, producing more than a third of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Clean electricity is also key to decarbonizing transport, heating, and much of industry by replacing fossil fuel burning currently occurring in engines, boilers, furnaces, and other applications. An accelerated transition to a clean, electrified economy powered by wind, solar, and other clean energy forms will also unlock benefits in areas such as economic growth, employment, air quality, and energy sovereignty.
The pace of emission reductions will depend on how quickly clean energy development continues. There is a global consensus on the scale of ambition required. At the COP28 UN climate change conference in December, world leaders reached a historic agreement to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. The goal would see the world reach 60% renewable electricity by 2030, nearly halving energy sector emissions and putting the world on the right path aligned with the 1.5°C climate goal. Leaders also agreed at COP28 to double annual energy efficiency improvements by 2030, which will be crucial to unlocking the full potential of electrification and preventing runaway electricity demand growth.
Countries are already demonstrating the key enablers that galvanize rapid growth in solar and wind power, including high-level political ambition, incentive mechanisms, and flexibility solutions. The report highlights three countries – China, Brazil, and the Netherlands – showing that despite very different starting points, the combination of these approaches is achieving rapid transformations of their electricity systems and paving the way for a clean, electrified economy.
Related article: TotalEnergies and Vanguard Renewables Form Joint Venture for RNG Projects in the U.S.
"The future of renewables has arrived. Solar power, in particular, is accelerating faster than anyone thought possible. The decline of energy sector emissions is now inevitable. 2023 was probably the turning point (peak of energy sector emissions), a significant inflection point in energy history. But the pace of emission decline depends on how quickly the renewable energy revolution continues. The good news is we already know the key factors that help countries unlock the full potential of solar and wind power. There is an unprecedented opportunity for countries that choose to lead the future of clean energy. Scaling up clean electricity not only helps decarbonize the energy sector. It also provides the supply boost needed to electrify the entire economy; and that's the real game-changer for the climate." – Dave Jones, Global Insights Program Lead, Ember
Source: ESG News