Religious vote raises the tone in Brazil's election campaign

The campaign is starting to heat up. Bolsonaro and Lula are advancing towards the elections on 3 October under a?highly polarized climate. In this context, anything goes, and?now religion is beginning to play an increasingly important role.

According to Datafolha data,?50% of the Brazilian electorate declares itself Catholic, while 27% declares itself evangelical.?The rest of the population is distributed among atheists, agnostics and other faiths.

Well, the fact is that?in the Catholic segment, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is getting around 52% of the voting intention, against only 27% for Bolsonaro. On the other hand,?in the evangelical spectrum, the situation is exactly the opposite. The president has 49% of the support?and has made it a priority to improve these numbers. On the other hand, the Workers Party leader barely reaches 32% among evangelicals.

It’s a campaign with biblical overtones... AND economic ones.

During this month of August we have seen how the Brazilian Ministry of Finance extended the tax exemption received by evangelical pastors. In addition,?Bolsonaro, among his campaign events, has included religious events,?such as the "March for Jesus", along with?an unprecedented religious narrative in the country:

"Today everyone can say that we have a President of the Republic who believes in God, respects his police and military, the Brazilian family and owes loyalty to the people." - Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil.

At this point it should be noted that?evangelical groups not only represent around a quarter of the electorate, but?also have a significant political influence?in the legislative branch. Specifically,?of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 116 are occupied by evangelical legislators,?with the Evangelical Parliamentary Front being the bloc that adds more legislators than any other party in the chamber, even if they do not respond to a strictly partisan agenda. In this way,?Bolsonaro seems to want to make the evangelical movement his praetorian guard.

On the other hand, Lula's running mate,?Geraldo Alckmin, is increasingly positioning himself as an important figure for connecting with the religious electorate, both for his center-right origins and for his moderate profile position within the campaign. And not only that,?in order not to scare away the religious vote, the Workers' Party candidate is avoiding touching on issues such as abortion.

Instead, he is focusing his campaign on?the defense of institutionality in the face of Bolsonaro's constant attacks, for example, against the Superior Electoral Court. In this way Lula intends to position himself in the eyes of the electorate as a candidate moving towards the center. Likewise, from the University of Sao Paulo, the drafting of a manifesto expressing deep concern about Bolsonaro's attacks on justice was promoted. It has been signed by more than 940,000 people including politicians of all ideological spectrums, businessmen, artists, judges, activists and citizens in general. Of course, Lula did not hesitate in joining this manifesto.

Crucial days ahead

With a little more than a month before the elections,?everything seems to be up in the air?and that is where?the mobilization of the religious vote could be a key factor.?It is true that in the latest Datafolha survey, while?Lula maintains 47% of the voting intention, Bolsonaro jumped from 29% to 32%. This could be explained by the advance achieved over the evangelical electorate and also because?the Brazilian government has increased social aid through the "Auxilio Brasil" program, in addition to announcing a reduction in fuel taxes?that absorbed the increase in energy costs. In fact, in this vein,?the current Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, considered to be the representative of the moderate wing of the government,?is assuming a greater role in the campaign.

The current president seems to be confident as regards the events of 7 September, the day on which the?bicentennial of Independence?will be celebrated. This event will be a demonstration of power which will show, according to his own words, "to whom this nation belongs". Will Bolsonaro have an ace up his sleeve? We will soon find out.