Religious faith in the days of COVID-19: A Risk Management perspective

By Lott Chidawaya CA(SA), CFA, FRM, ACMA, CGMA, MSc Fin (LBS)

**The discussion below is not a treatise of any sort but my musings on this Sabbath day as I reflect on the human predicament of being mortal.**

ISO 73: Risk management - Vocabulary defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. An effect is a deviation from the expected. Objectives can have different aspects and can apply at different levels. Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or likelihood.

While the definition of risk is easy to grasp and its constituent elements (effect, uncertainty, objectives) are universally accepted, the meaning of risk management is imprecise. It depends on factors such as context, or subject matter, hence there are myriad models for risk management proffered by various organizations and entities that claim to be the arbiters of this complex area.

Sources of risks are too many and the impact is situational. For some risks we attempt some elaborate management and containment measures that can be summarized under the commonly used elements of identify, measure, manage, transfer, or accept. There is another category of extremely rare but shockingly devastating risks—black swans. Nassim Nicholas Taleb developed the black swan theory to explain rare events that are beyond the realm of expectations and whose magnitude of impact is difficult if not impossible to quantify. The consequence of these black swans leave a dominant role in history and our collective psyche. This is the realm of risks such as asteroids impact and pandemics like COVID-19.

Why is this COVID-19 pandemic a big deal? Well, it is striking at the core of human fragility: LIFE. We are mortals, and the effect of the virus reminds us of this truth. The virus is trying to make our short-lives even shorter! This is quite a scary proposition and downright unacceptable. There is no medical cure for human mortality, what we have in medicines are postponement measures for this eventuality. So the corona viruses that causes COVID-19 need to be eliminated, rightly so, perhaps we can all live our days on Earth until 100 years, for the lucky few among the human family. The nature of most “black swan events” threatens life itself. Granted, mortality is a human heritage. A great case for risk management can be made here. Let me explain.

For the most part, the concept of faith in whatever religion, tends to have the same elements of risk (effect, uncertainty, and objectives). For example, a famous Christian author defined faith as “confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see”. While hope is not a strategy but an anchor for the soul, the idea behind hope is uncertainty since there is no objective evidence of sight (we do not see). The idea that makes this uncertainty real is faith i.e., assurance or being certain of what you do not see.

For example, the question of whether God exists cannot be objectively answered based on sight—for no one alive today has ever seen God, echoing another famous Christian author John 1 verse 18 “No one has ever seen God”. Instead, the question of whether God exists could be considered using some of the risk management parameters. If it turns out to be true that God exists, the risk of failing to manage this uncertainty is what I would call the Grand Daddy of all Black Swans.

Why? Well, since black swan events we fear most tend to threaten our lives, mortality is a human heritage. But now, God says He has the solution to our mortal predicament—the potential of missing out on this, if God exists, could turn out to be the mother of all losses.

The Christian author John, wrote “For God so loved the world that He gave His one and only Son, that whoever believes in Him shall not perish but have eternal life.” John further quotes this Son of God saying, "I am the resurrection and the life. The one who believes in me will live, even though they die”.

Eternal life! We could be resurrected and live forever even if we die! By just believing! The loss of this mortality cure cannot be quantified.

Another type of black swans that can make COVID-19 look like picnic is the area of asteroids. Without getting into the technicalities of the amount of energy that an asteroid can release on impact depending on its diameter, density, velocity, and angle—one can easily model online the effects of such an asteroid impact, refer to the Earth Impact Effects Program. While NASA’s Asteroid Watch Widget does a wonderful job in tracking asteroids, there is another “asteroid type event” that only God (if He exists) has foretold of gigantic proportions that will end all life on Earth—what I call the Cousin to the Grand Daddy black swan. This “asteroid-type impact” event was dreamt by the famous Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar as narrated in Daniel 2:

“While you were watching, a rock was cut out, but not by human hands. It struck the statue on its feet of iron and clay and smashed them. Then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver and the gold were all broken to pieces and became like chaff on a threshing floor in the summer. The wind swept them away without leaving a trace. But the rock that struck the statue became a huge mountain and filled the whole earth.”

The above is explained to mean:

“In the time of those kings, the God of heaven will set up a kingdom that will never be destroyed, nor will it be left to another people. It will crush all those kingdoms and bring them to an end, but it will itself endure forever. This is the meaning of the vision of the rock cut out of a mountain, but not by human hands—a rock that broke the iron, the bronze, the clay, the silver and the gold to pieces. “The Great God has shown the king what will take place in the future. The dream is true and its interpretation is trustworthy.”

If indeed these events will happen, then only God has the solution I need for the hopeless mortal predicament I find myself trapped in as part of the human family. So, I daily live trusting and being certain that God has the only lasting solution for my real want: free immortality. That is my faith—risk management in action.