Is there relief ahead for Honeycrisp Pricing?

It was not too long ago that Northeast growers were earning as much as $1,100 per 20-bushel bin on their Premier Honeycrisp, an early strain that comes on approximately 4 weeks ahead of the majority of the crop. Unfortunately, I think we can confidently say those were the “good ol’ days”.

Excellent growing conditions in NY have the crop around 10 days ahead of normal. We will likely be picking the first Premier Honeycrisp late next week and I fear growers will be disappointed with their returns.

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A look at the current market and supplies.

Reports from out West are coming in that many shippers will have 2023 Honeycrisp trough October, 2024 or later. Low FOBs have spurred some additional movement throughout the season and strong domestic supplies have displaced some Chilean imports that typically cover the summer demand here in the US. But it’s proved not enough. Now we’re set to start the season early, with overlapping domestic supply.

Making matters worse is the fact that the early Premier strain has a shorter shelf life than the conventional Honeycrisp strains. Generally, the premiers hold up for 8-10 weeks before packouts begin to trail off. In past seasons this wasn’t problematic, as the supply pipeline was empty and Premier was here to fill in about a month before the main crop. I’m expecting a serious traffic jam on the Honeycrisp expressway to start the 2024 season.?

Can prices drop even lower than current FOBs?? The next 4 weeks will tell us. One thing I know for sure, current FOBs are not sustainable for growers. Honeycrisp are more expensive to grow. They require more time and maintenance in the orchard before producing, specialized foliar nutrition and PGR regimes, and picking costs are 60-100% higher than other varieties due to the fruit’s delicate nature and required multiple passes through the orchard.

The supply & demand model we continue wreaking havoc on the once gold standard of fresh apple varieties. Demand will have to grow, or trees will be taken out. And I think for most growers Premiers will be one of the first on the chopping block. Issues with fruit drop, more difficult to color and lower yields make them much less desirable, especially when there is less of a need for early fruit.

Is there any good news?

Early estimates have 2024 supplies around 20-30% lower. Once we get through the remaining 2023 crop, Premiers and fruit off of immature trees, which is typically not fit for long term storage, I think shippers will finally get a chance to look at their storage stocks and there’s a CHANCE that we could get prices back to sustainable level. This will all depend on how the 2024 crop shakes out and if quality is good enough to store through summer months again.

?If you’re a grower you must focus on producing high quality fruit, fit for long term storage. Achieving high packouts year after year will be the only way to build up your mote in a continued down market for Honeycrisp. This starts with the right strains on the right rootstocks. At last year’s Western NY field day, researchers from Cornell University shared that B9 is still the best rootstock when managing bitter pit. It may be a slower grower, but if you must wait one more year before producing to ensure best packout potentials, I think it’ll pencil in the end. High color strains like Firestorm, Rosalee and Red Royal might add up front costs in royalties but could unlock perpetual savings at harvest with a potential for 2 picks vs. 3 picks.?

As an industry we need retailers to pass along these lower costs in their retails to spur movement. Every retailer I’ve spoken with is not practically thrilled in the lower pricing, as it’s deflating sales dollars, and because the elasticity hasn’t been great on the item, the unit movement hasn’t always made up for the dollar deflation. Deflated Honeycrisp retails also tend to cannibalize sales on other varieties causing this Honeycrisp situation to spill across the whole category. Yet, movement is what the industry needs to get through the backlog and return to the hum of a more balanced demand model.

Disclaimer...

These are my personal opinions on the current situation with the only agenda of informing industry stakeholders in hopes to help make the best decisions for the good of the industry. I welcome any feedback and discussion!

?Here’s to another apple season! Every year is different, every crop is different!

?See you all at Apple Outlook – 2024 !

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