Reimaging the Energy Transition: a meta-crisis and a system-of-systems problem

Our closing line from every episode of the Energy Transition talk was “The Energy Transition is about what we as individuals and communities are will to do.” I am not sure if it was Paulina or Justine came up with that phrase but the more, I think about the challenges of the Energy Transition and Climate Change the more this phrase rings true. I recently ran across an article by Art Berman that ties all of this together for me but it really brings the advice from Dr. Don Paul, Dr. Scott Tinker, Chris Wright and others together about the real challenges come in the size and complexity of the problem. Mr. Berman takes that advice to another level. Here are a few highlights from his article.

(Art Berman https://www.artberman.com/blog/metacrisis-getting-honest-about-the-human-predicament/ )

“The world is in meta-crisis. That means that many crises are occurring simultaneously and affecting one another. This calls for rethinking the nature of problem-solving. Root causes should be identified rather than merely treating their symptoms. Traditionally, problems have been tackled in isolation. That approach has led to the meta-crisis.

What we are facing today is a web of systemic, interconnected, compounding processes. Broad categories including energy, environment, population growth and financial overshoot. All of the processes are interconnected, and changes to one inevitably affect the others. Changing things without thinking about its cascading effects can lead to disastrous outcomes yet piecemeal changes have been the norm so far in society’s approach to problem-solving. We want solutions but do we understand the problems we are trying to solve?

Attention must be placed first on the whole, not on the parts. That includes the natural world. It is the source of the resources including food that support human survival and prosperity. Disregarding the effects of our actions on nature is among the principal reasons for the meta-crisis.

Climate change activism is a prime example of focusing on parts rather than the whole. Climate change is only a part of the larger environmental and ecological crisis. Focusing mainly or solely on carbon emissions overlooks the broader context which includes energy, the economy, society, and human behavior. A holistic approach is needed that moves from the whole to the parts and back again. Otherwise, we are merely shifting problems from one area to another and probably making everything worse.

Even in the narrow case that only considers emissions, there is no evidence that the renewable energy transition has changed their upward trajectory despite thirty-six international climate conferences and trillions of dollars of investment over the last forty years. Global CO? emissions have increased +18 gigatons (+93%) since the first World Climate Conference in 1979 and +15 gigatons (+61%) since COP 1 in 1995.

In fact, there is no evidence that an energy transition exists. Energy consumption and population continue to increase every year. Historical data on world energy consumption from 1800 reveals an additive rather than a subtractive pattern. This means that new energy sources are layered on top of old ones, rather than replacing them.? Today, both biomass and coal consumption exceed their 1800 levels, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar barely making a statistical impact. This underlines that, despite the estimated investment of about $10 trillion in renewables over the last twenty years, they are just a small addition to our ongoing conventional energy usage.

The popular idea that fossil fuels can be, and are being, replaced by renewable energy is false. There is no energy transition or green revolution. Wind and solar accounted for 2.4% of world energy consumption in 2022 – a zero-rounding error. There has never been replacement of one energy source by another. No energy source has ever been substantially reduced.

Population was 2.5 billion when I was born in 1950. It has more than tripled in my lifetime to more than 8 billion in 2023. Total energy consumption has increased more than 60-fold in that same period. Half of all historical oil consumption has been since 2000. Growth is the problem. Carbon emissions are a consequence of the growth in energy consumption that has enabled the growth in human population and economic activity.

The current world strategy to reduce carbon emissions is to substitute renewable for fossil fuel sources of energy. That approach is not having much effect in terms of absolute volumes of energy supplied or consumed. I am describing reality. I am not suggesting that using fossil fuels is good nor do I minimize the risks of climate change and global heating. Global heating is real. It is a problem. It is because of growth. Carbon emissions are a consequence—not the cause—of temperature increase. Ending fossil fuel use is simply not a practical idea in the medium term. Growth—not fossil fuels—is the root cause that must be understood.

The global financial system is increasingly fragile, primarily stemming from massive debt levels, geopolitical risks, increasing interconnectedness, and market volatility. High levels of public and private debt in many countries pose a risk to financial stability. Global debt averaged 220 percent of GDP in 2022

The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources involves substantial investment in new technologies and infrastructure. These costs can be significant for both governments and businesses, affecting economic stability in the short term. Increasingly frequent and severe climate-related disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, cause direct economic damage and disrupt global supply chains. The costs of rebuilding and mitigation efforts further strain economic resources.

Those who believe that a renewable energy transition is possible seem to ignore that carbon emissions, GDP, population, and society’s ecological footprint all correlate with energy consumption. That means that there is a cost for lower emissions. Unless the future is somehow completely different from the past and present, the only solution to climate change and overshooting our planetary boundaries is a radical reduction in energy consumption. Lower economic growth and a lower population will be unavoidable components of a renewable energy future. That’s not part of the transition narrative, and is a non-starter for most people and political leaders. (sometime called the Overshoot problem)

The essence of the meta-crisis is that everything is connected. Tinkering with one piece without considering the ripple effects can lead to disaster. Yet, this piecemeal approach is how society tries to solve its problems. We crave solutions, but do we truly grasp the problems at hand?

“Our focus must first be on the whole, not just the fragments. This means acknowledging the natural world as the foundation of our resources and prosperity. Ignoring how our actions affect nature is a core reason for the meta-crisis we’re facing. Climate change is just a piece of a much larger puzzle of environmental and ecological breakdown. Focusing solely on carbon emissions misses the broader context—energy, the economy, society, and human behavior. We need a holistic approach, one that moves fluidly from the whole to the parts and back again. Otherwise, we’re simply shifting problems around, likely making everything worse in the process.”

Thank you Mr. Berman. By the way we just got the go ahead for season two of the Energy Transition Talk so look for us again (including Paulina, Justine graduated) this fall.