Regional Supply Chains, Conflicts and Border Closures

Sudan

Reports indicated that Sudan has cancelled the Read Sea Port deal it had negotiated with the UAE as a way of protesting against an alleged support Abu Dhabi is granting the Rapid Support Forces. The$6 billion deal had been signed in between Sudan and consortium led by the United Arab Emirates' AD Ports Group and Invictus Investment and was to see the development of a new port and economic zone in the Red Sea.

Mozambique, and the SADC Region

There is a looming post- election crisis in Mozambique whose effects could have implications on regional trade and supply chains especially in the SADC region. This crisis , coming in the forms of protests follows the disputed election of October 8, 2024 – won by the ruling party, Front for the Liberation of Mozambique( Frelimo).

The crisis has led to South Africa closing its borders over safety concerns. The political violence has been exacerbated by the killing of a legal advisor of the country’s leading opposition party and a key opposition figure.

Presently SADC is attempting address the crisis , but it remains to be seen whether this intervention will yield any success., Mozambique began provisionally applying the EPA between the European Union and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) in 2018, making the agreement the first regional EPA in Africa to be fully operational.

WTO

WTO Leadership

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has been confirmed as sole candidate for the role of WTO Director-General. This means Ngozi whose current term ends on 31 August 2025, is set to serve as WTO DG until 2029. It would be interesting to see how the new Trump administration interacts with Ngozi’s second term as the WTO Chief ,especially as Trump’s former U.S. trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, labelled her “China’s ally in Geneva” in his 2023 book, “No Trade Is Free.”

Of Multilateralism, Trust, and Trade

While delivering his lecture as part of the of WTO Presidential Lecture Series, Charles Michel the President of the European Council emphasized that trust is essential to make multilateralism work:

“We need to build more trust. People must believe in each other when they make agreements and work together. And building trust requires respect for international law, crucial when nations cooperate together. We also need trade because it generates prosperity and helps us achieve our common goals. And we must transform global multilateral institutions, so they are strong and fit for the 21st century.”

Of course, a lot needs to be addressed in multilateralism, including getting the WTO Dispute settlement to work again. Do you think there are prospects of inculcating trust at the WTO, especially with the current geopolitics? There have been talks of an increased in deglobalisation and more trade wars especially pitting great powers.

This is now more real with the election of Donald Trump as the US president. For starters, Trump has plans to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports and a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, potentially triggering a global contagion of retaliatory measures. This will certainly continue to disrupt the World Trade Organization and undermine the international trading system.

Please share your thoughts and Feedback.

Patrick Anam

Trade Law Practitioner