Reflections on the White Paper

I have to confess that as an Employment policy nerd, I have been eagerly waiting for the White Paper since the General Election in July.? It was published yesterday and it will take time to work through the implications and mechanics of it becoming a reality in the institutions and in the services which our fellow citizens receive but I have a few initial thoughts and reflections.

Chapter 2 sets out the diagnosis and the case for change and it does so well.? One of the things that jumps out, and the mainstream media have picked it up, is the rise in inactivity since 2020.? The paper correctly identifies this as largely due to a rise in long term health conditions but beyond gloomy OBR predictions of a participation rate below 60% in fifty years there is little commentary about the societal reasons for the rise in sickness and the inflection point in the data which is coincident with the Pandemic.? This is not the place to get into distrust, social contracts and the manifestations of social cohesion, but we need to be aware we are living in a country in which a lot of damage has been done to our sense of common purpose and that damages our economy.

The White paper identifies inactivity as the big challenge but to be honest it’s a pretty crude measure unless you really dig into it by age, gender and reason for inactivity.? The ONS data for total Economic Inactivity for the period July 23 to June 24 is 9.03 million, and almost twenty years earlier in the period July 04 to June 05 it was higher at 9.17 million.? The year immediately before the outbreak of Covid, April 19 to March 20 was the low point in that 20 year period with 8.7million inactive, so we have to do the work to understand this phenomenon in more detail.

The paper correctly identifies that this is a “whole of Government” problem and that tackling our employment challenges is as much about housing, health, childcare and skills as it is about the public employment service.? I think we need to add two dimensions to that – regional economic structure – too many regions have a serious lack of good jobs in the (the UK is one of the most imbalanced of the OECD in terms of distribution of our economy) and accessible and affordable transport.? The challenge with “whole of Government” problems is the scope creep that comes into political prioritisation over the life of a Government.? If the current Government are to maintain the focus they need to resist the urge to keep launching new initiatives and just stick to the important stuff for the life of the Parliament.

Another major plank of the paper is the Youth Guarantee.? The system for helping young people transition to adulthood is pretty rickety, for all of the reasons outlined in the supporting data.? In Scotland we see that about two thirds of young people make the transition with support from their teachers, family and peers. ?Of the remaining third, most require some advice and coaching, and maybe a false start or two, but fundamentally they will get there.? The minority who need more, need a lot more.? The system failed them not at the point of transition out of school, but years before.? The paper talks about a “Risk of Neet Indicator”? It is worth looking at the work done by Skills Development Scotland in creating a data hub in which schools, colleges, DWP and eventually Revenue Scotland share data on every young person in the country and in which there is a well developed risk matrix based on administrative data and validated by trusted adults in the young persons life.? Identifying young people at risk is important and necessary but obviously not sufficient as a policy response.? The additional resources identified are really welcome but we should be bolder.? Our education system is still obsessed by young people sitting in classrooms and passing exams.? Is that honestly the best we can do?? We need to have alternative skills offers available from around age 12/13, when the attendance and behaviour of some young people becomes a managerial issue rather than the nurturing one it should.? The review of the statutory assessment system is very welcome – let’s hope work in the same area in Scotland is continued with vigour.? I think we need more strategic coordination of the resources across schools, colleges, apprenticeships and FE and HE.? I almost hesitate to mention it because the institutional interests will claim I am suggesting soviet style production planning, but unless we get a grip of the billions we spend on education and skills we will miss another opportunity to engineer ourselves into the 21st Century.

I should stress I am really optimistic about the prospects for the system as envisioned in the White Paper.? It represents a mature and grounded synopsis of the problem and has the promise of more intelligent collaboration in pursuit of the stated goals.? Let me ask for three things: - Firstly, DWP should be a research and analysis powerhouse, they have the data and the specialists, set them free to be part of designing the solution.? Secondly, Create a community of practice, I was part of the City Strategy Pathfinders in 2007- 2010 and the learning and sharing was invaluable.? Thirdly, really do devolution, celebrate difference and support regions and Nations to be peers in this endeavour.