Reflections on the Science & Art of Predicting

Reflections on the Science & Art of Predicting

The more I learn about forecasting methods, the more I am humbled by their limitations. Given a dataset of snowflakes, can you predict the shape of the next snowflake? Of course not! Each snowflake is unique! I use snowflakes as analogous to social networks such as organizations, industries, political voter bases, customer segments, or even individual personality traits, each unique across space and time. Read More

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