Reflections and Projections for Public Security in Brazil: Early 2025

We begin 2025 with the hope of consolidating progress and addressing persistent challenges in public security. At The Blue Curtain, we critically review the events of 2024 and project trends that

Reflections and Projections for Public Security in Brazil: Early 2025

We begin 2025 with the hope of consolidating progress and addressing persistent challenges in public security. At The Blue Curtain, we critically review the events of 2024 and project trends that could shape the future of security in Brazil.

Review of 2024: What Did We Learn?

Security Policies

• Public Security PEC: In 2024, the federal government introduced a proposal to reorganize and strengthen the public security system, aiming for greater integration between federal, state, and municipal forces. Source: gov.br
• Security Investments: The National Public Security Fund allocated R$ 2.5 billion in 2024, prioritizing reducing violent deaths, combating organized crime, and protecting public property. Source: gov.br

Data and Statistics: The Reality Behind the Numbers

• Reported Homicides (2012–2022): Brazil officially recorded 609,697 homicides during this period, averaging approximately 60,970 cases annually. In 2022, 46,409 homicides were registered, representing a rate of 21.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. Source: DefesaNet
• Hidden Homicides (2012–2022): An estimated 51,726 homicides were not officially recorded, known as "hidden homicides," due to misclassifications or undefined causes of death. Source: DefesaNet
• Homicides in 2024: As of November 2024, Brazil reported 32,259 intentional homicides, according to the Ministry of Justice and Public Security, with an average of 97 victims per day. Bahia led with 3,048 cases, followed by Pernambuco (2,474) and Ceará (2,381). Source: Ministry of Justice and Public Security
• Digital Crime: Brazil faced an epidemic of cell phone thefts and cyber fraud, with one in ten Brazilians reporting their cell phone stolen in 2024. Source: El País

Legislative Challenges

• Regulation of Police Use of Force: Decree No. 12,341/2024 regulated the use of police force, detailing criteria and procedures for its application and the use of less-lethal tools. Source: Conjur

Projections for 2025: What to Expect?

Technological Innovation

• AI in Crime Prevention: Predictive artificial intelligence systems are expected to assist in the strategic allocation of police resources, improving operational efficiency and response times.
• Drones and Autonomous Surveillance: The use of drones in urban centers and border regions is expected to expand, especially in hard-to-reach areas, enhancing surveillance and rapid response capabilities.
• Data Integration: Centralized platforms for sharing information between police forces promise greater efficiency in investigations and real-time sharing of critical data for joint operations.

Social and Economic Policies

• Social Reintegration Programs: Pilot projects employing ex-offenders in public works are being developed, focusing on reducing recidivism and creating sustainable job opportunities.
• Preventive Education: Educational initiatives against violence in schools are already showing positive results in some areas. Programs aimed at children and adolescents are fostering a culture of peace and citizenship among the younger generation.

Multisectoral Collaboration

• Community Investments: Basic infrastructure, culture, and sports are priorities for reducing social vulnerabilities and preventing crime. Resilient communities with access to these resources have shown lower crime rates.
• Corporate and Citizen Security: Partnerships between companies and the government have contributed to safer and more resilient environments, promoting initiatives ranging from security training to creating support networks in high-risk areas.

Critical Areas for 2025

1. Border Security: Combating arms and drug trafficking remains a priority, with efforts to strengthen the presence in border areas. New technologies, such as motion sensors and aerial surveillance, should complement security forces' efforts.
2. Cybersecurity: Robust policies against cybercrimes and digital education are essential to tackle increasing attacks. Companies and governments are investing in specialized teams to handle incidents and develop prevention strategies.
3. Regional Inequalities: Disparities in the distribution of security resources demand attention to expand state presence in more vulnerable areas. This includes allocating trained teams and technology to underserved regions.

Join the Discussion

?? What are your expectations for public security in 2025? Share your insights, suggestions, and critiques in the comments. Together, we can build a safer and more promising future for all Brazilians. Your participation is essential for fostering transformative discussions and actions in Brazil's public security landscape.