Reflections on My Futurism - Predictions, Timelines, and the Reality of Change

I recently tuned into an episode of The Futurists podcast hosted by my good friend Brett King , where Brett and Fabrice Grinda dove into a fascinating discussion about the future of investing. Fabrice highlighted a critical yet often overlooked aspect of futurism—understanding the timelines for trends and technologies to move from inception to mainstream adoption.

His point was clear, while recognizing a future trend or technology is essential, the timing of its societal and economic integration often takes longer than expected. Being too early can be as costly as being wrong when it comes to investments or strategic decisions. Examples like smartphones, broadband, and even AI highlight this dynamic. The technology becomes ubiquitous, but the journey from innovation to mainstream adoption can span years, if not decades.

This got me thinking about my own reflections on futurism, particularly in the context of the banking industry. It’s a reminder that while I aim to avoid outright predictions, much of my work revolves around recognizing emerging trends and helping banks navigate these shifts.

The Futurism Trap: Spotting Trends vs. Timing

As someone who spends a lot of time looking at trends and helping banks navigate their future, I’ve often found myself in the same trap Fabrice described. My focus on platformification in banking is a perfect example. Years ago, I predicted that APIs and regulatory initiatives like PSD2 would lead to a seismic shift, pushing banks into a platform-driven ecosystem where they would embed their services into other industries, or drive their own industry platform.

And I was right—eventually.

What I didn’t account for was the pace. While we now see examples like SEB Embedded and Alisa Pankki Oyj | Alisa Bank Plc in the Nordics, the growth of platformification has been slower than I originally anticipated. The vision is still valid: the future of banking will be dominated by platforms. But as Fabrice pointed out, understanding the “when” is just as important as the “what.”

Why the Delay?

Looking at the banking industry’s journey, it’s clear why the transition to platformification hasn’t happened overnight:

1. Regulatory Complexities

Regulations like PSD2 and Open Banking were intended to open up competition and drive innovation. While they have laid the groundwork, inconsistent implementation across regions has slowed progress. The Nordics are ahead of many markets, but even here, the pace is cautious.

2. Legacy Technology

Let’s not forget the elephant in the room: legacy technology. Transitioning to cloud-native, API-driven architectures takes time, especially for large, incumbent banks with decades-old systems.

3. Cultural Resistance

Many banks remain deeply rooted in traditional ways of working. Transitioning to a platform mindset requires more than technology, it demands a cultural shift. Banks must move away from being product-centric to being customer-centric, a journey that is far from straightforward.

4. Customer Behavior

While the industry is ready to move forward, customers often lag in adopting new financial models. Embedded finance, for instance, requires consumers to embrace banking services in non-traditional contexts, a shift that takes time.

5. A Fundamental Shift in Business Models

Perhaps the most significant hurdle is the required shift in business thinking. Platformification demands that banks rethink their role entirely, transitioning from traditional banking models to platform business models. This isn’t just a structural change; it’s a philosophical one.

Instead of focusing solely on outputs (like loans, mortgages, or savings accounts), banks must focus on outcomes for their customers. This involves embracing platform dynamics, where value is co-created with partners, ecosystems are prioritized over silos, and success is measured by the broader impact on the customer journey, not just the bottom line.

For many executives, this represents a seismic shift, requiring a reimagining of both strategy and execution.

Reflections on My Own Futurism

Looking back, I can see where I underestimated the timelines for change. But does this mean my predictions were wrong? Not at all. Instead, it highlights the importance of aligning vision with the realities of execution. For example:

? I believed Open Banking would revolutionize the industry within a few years. In reality, it’s taken over a decade to make meaningful progress.

? I expected APIs to drive rapid adoption of embedded finance. While this is happening, the rate of adoption is slower than anticipated.

This reflection has taught me an important lesson: change is inevitable, but it rarely happens on your timeline.

Lessons Learned

So, what have I learned from reflecting on my futurism?

1. The Value of Patience

Spotting trends is only half the battle. Recognizing the time it will take for cultural, technological, and regulatory factors to align is just as critical.

2. Focus on Actionable Change

While it’s exciting to think about what’s coming in a decade, the real impact comes from helping organizations take meaningful steps today. For example, guiding banks on how to embed financial services into partner ecosystems can deliver immediate value while laying the groundwork for the future.

3. Champion the Shift in Thinking

As Fabrice noted, the key to success is often a change in mindset. For banks, this means embracing platforms, focusing on outcomes, and reimagining their role in the broader financial ecosystem.

2025: Where Do We Go From Here?

Looking ahead, I remain as confident as ever that platformification will define the future of banking. The Nordics, with their strong digital foundations and customer trust, are uniquely positioned to lead this transformation.

However, the road ahead requires bold action:

? For banks: Start shifting your focus from outputs to outcomes. Think about how you can create value through partnerships and ecosystems.

? For regulators: Continue to foster innovation by supporting open standards and removing unnecessary barriers.

? For all of us: Be patient, but stay the course. The transformation is slow, but the destination is worth the effort.

Over to You

How do you see the timeline for platformification evolving? Have you experienced similar challenges in balancing predictions with execution? I’d love to hear your thoughts, drop a comment or connect with me directly.

To quote Brett, Robert Tercek on The Futurists podcast “see you in the future”…