Reflections on the most serious and direct threats to the United States, including climate change and new technologies.

The Intelligence Community of the United States was presents in its 2022 report the transnational challenges and threats facing the country, from climate change to the challenges of new technologies.

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From the annual threat assessment report of the intelligence community of the United States, it warns of the impact generated by climate change and the risk it poses to the interests of the country. Climate change has, in said report, even a chapter solely dedicated to this issue.

Among the risks indicated, they warn of the seriousness of the situation in which we will find ourselves when the physical impacts and geopolitical tensions worsen and increase to respond to the challenge. It highlights the impact that it will generate in coordination with the effects of environmental degradation, especially in low-income countries.

According to the document, tensions between countries will increase when they try to reach agreements to accelerate the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions necessary to comply with the Paris Agreement. From this pact, an attempt is made to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5oC since pre-industrial times. Taking into account the global trajectory of the increase in gas emissions, it is expected that the increase in global temperature will be 1.5oC by 2030 and exceed 2oC in the middle of the century.

It is also warned that this threat will cause confrontation between countries to control resources and master the new technologies necessary for the "clean" energy transition. Another dispute will appear regarding the issue of who has more responsibility when taking reduction measures and who must pay for these emissions.

The report perceives the problem that states will face and the obligation to implement difficult economic decisions that have to include technological changes to achieve this rapid and effective reduction. India and China are focused on, considering that they have a fundamental role in the matter.

The effects of physical changes, he points out, will add additional instability in national and cross-border geopolitical foci. An example that the document exposes is the reduction of sea ice, which amplifies strategic competition in the Arctic for access to its natural resources and maritime routes.

Another side of the consequences of changes in the earth's surface highlights the increase in temperatures, which leads to manifesting the most extreme effects, such as the risk of conflicts over water and migration.

After 2030, an increase in the probability of countries unilaterally testing and deploying large-scale solar geoengineering can be expected, which may add a new area of dispute.

Scientific studies consider that the effects of climate change after 2040 will be extremely intense in low-income countries, since they are the ones with the worst adaptation to this situation, according to the document. A problem of instability and internal conflict is established in which a future increase in additional demands for diplomatic, economic, humanitarian and military resources towards the United States is forecast.

The geographic and financial resource advantages of the United States and its allies will face increasingly difficult challenges to manage if coordinated steps are not taken to reduce emissions and effectively limit global warming.

The report accuses the unsustainable use of land, water and pollution of helping the feedback of climate change, worsening especially in the short term, in low-income countries. It warns about the challenge facing humanity, such as food and water insecurity, which threaten human health.

After the pandemic and climate change as the most prominent current challenges, the security of the United States is believed to be affected by a wide range of transnational issues. Some are considered to have a direct and immediate impact on national interests, such as drug trafficking and terrorism, they consider that their expansion is the indirect result of corruption, among other things.

Transnational threats act together with the "traditional" ones, such as the competition for power between great powers, being considered a security problem. The report finds that the threats are based on “weak” or “poor” governance and geopolitical competition.

Thus, from the United States it is thought that the deterioration of democracy in the world, the tensions in its alliances and the challenges to accepted international norms, are reasons for the difficulty that arises in challenging problems that cross the borders of countries whose problems, are also the growing opportunities for “rogue” governments to operate with impunity.

Thus, the intelligence community denounces that the problem of corruption increases the complexity of transnational problems when it comes to establishing relations between countries. It also takes the opportunity to blame these governments for weak economies, a problem that contributes to political instability, organized crime, and migration.

Corruption in international transactions is suspected to cost US exporters billions of dollars, potentially benefiting regimes that abuse human rights. Corruption is also presented as a double-edged sword for their own states, since it can affect the capacity and credibility of these authoritarian regimes.

As a transnational challenge that is considered from the North American country, the development of technologies that influence the transformation of the "battlefield", the threats of transnational organized crime and terrorism together with the global challenge of international migration stand out.

The increasing convergence of seemingly “disconnected” fields and the increase in global competition to generate, helps to reduce the development and maturation times of technologies, as well as weakening the line between commercial and military efforts. The areas that most impact societies and economies are highlighted, these being artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robotics, automation, materials and intelligent manufacturing.

Emerging technologies are rapidly improving people's capabilities and experiences, at least in the short term. This change in the system and social dynamics leads societies to have to adapt to new ways of living, working and managing. The intelligence service warns of the probability of the growth of inequality and imbalances in some sectors.

The new use of these technologies monopolizes both the public and private sectors. The intelligence services warn of the direct threat that it poses to the traditional pillars of US military power, such as lines of communication, and mobilization, air control or, above all, the projection of power. These arose ultimately from how the actors put them into practice, each driven by their own objectives, perceptions, strengths, and vulnerabilities.

One of the most significant and continuing trends in new military technologies and weaponry according to the report is the increasing combination of high speed, long range, increased maneuverability and pinpoint accuracy. These advances enhance the ability of continents to attack between actors, as well as at the regional or local level, with unmanned aerial vehicles, guided rockets, and other means.

Many of the technologies that were previously only available to advanced industrial countries are finding their way into smaller systems and with less consistency, making them more widely available around the world, as seen in the recent use of UAVs. (UAV) on the battlefield by Azerbaijan and Ethiopia.

It is not ruled out that despite the fact that hypersonic systems and efforts to organize military artificial intelligence operations continue to be the responsibility of the most economically developed states; The most available low-cost systems, such as UAVs used by minor powers or non-state organizations, can cause a great impact and be key at a strategic level.

"We are in the midst of a rapid expansion of state and non-state use of unmanned vehicles in both air and sea, which could upset the status quo," the US intelligence services declare.

Transnational organized crime is considered a direct threat to the United States, through human trafficking, drug production and trafficking, cybercrime, financial crimes, and money laundering strategies (cryptocurrency) that can compromise the integrity of the international financial system. .

Cybercrime is also accused of exacerbating corruption, violence and governance problems that undermine the rule of law in partner countries, fueling violence, causing atrocities and contributing to migration, which becomes a threat to states. Joined.

The intelligence service condemns human trafficking and forced labor, not only as a violation of Human Rights, but as a national threat to economic development, which is facilitated by corrupt actors and networks that feed the growth of transnational organized crime.

Drug trafficking, particularly synthetic drugs, exposes itself as a health and safety risk for US citizens, which also entails billions of direct and indirect economic losses.

It alerts us to the historical moment in which we find ourselves, with more than 100,000 overdose deaths in the country, mainly due to the supply of synthetic opioids from Mexican organizations.

The Mexican cartels accuse, are the main producers and suppliers of illicit drugs for the US market. They produce fentanyl, heroin, methamphetamine, and marijuana in Mexico, obtaining cocaine from South America to smuggle into the United States.

Since 2019, Mexican TCOs have shifted from importing finished fentanyl from China to synthesizing it from chemical precursors, mainly also from China, partly due to regulation of this pain reliever in China.

The document warns of the ability of these organizations to evade international controls. The increase in the homicide rate since 2018 is also denounced due to the competition between cartels to control the routes, these deaths constitute a quarter of the US homicide rate.

Intelligence services also mention the use of profits from organizations to influence governments and recruit weapons and fighters capable of directly confronting government security forces.

These TCOs take advantage of the generation of billions of dollars from illegal activities to carry out money laundering and fraud maneuvers, thus obtaining benefits from both these and extortion, blackmailing Americans, production and sale of counterfeit products or products. stolen…

According to the report, the number of transnational cybersecurity criminals is increasing more and more, and they are increasingly using more sophisticated techniques, feeding a virtual ecosystem that threatens services globally.

Many of the major transnational cybercriminal groups have diversified business models, often engaging in victim transfer fraud or other forms of extortion alongside or instead of ransomware.

Among the five most expensive crimes of 2020 we can find identity theft, and the compromise of company email. US intelligence services warn companies as well, "attackers are innovating their strategies to target victims whose business operations lack resilience or whose consumer base cannot withstand service interruptions."

Within the framework of migration, the momentum of migration to the border between Mexico and the United States is forecast to continue, due to poor socioeconomic conditions and changes in US immigration policy. These migrations are not only expected from the neighboring country, but from people from all over the world, especially from the Caribbean and Latin America, who take advantage of the routes from Mexico to "reach" the North American country.

After?border restrictions derived from COVID-19 and the growth of the US economy, an increase in the flow of immigrants is expected.

“Economic disparities and the effects of conflict and extreme weather conditions will fuel internal and international migration and refugee flows.” Describes the report. All this is due to the increase in humanitarian needs, considering that it will lead to a risk of political turmoil, and the risk of new health crises as has happened with the pandemic that we have experienced. “will contribute to the recruitment and radicalization of militant groups, especially as COVID-19 strains global humanitarian response mechanisms.” Warn US intelligence services.

The number of displaced people continues to be greater within the borders, something that governments will have to face themselves to meet the needs of their nationals, however they warn of the probable wave of Afghan migration after the return of the Taliban government.

"Internationally organized criminal groups exploit migrants through extortion, kidnapping, human trafficking and forced labor" , Intelligence report anticipating in the same way that the current conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and Europe will unleash a greater migration to the old continent, and consequently a nationalist reaction on the part of European countries.

Regarding terrorism, it is considered to be a persistent threat to US interests both inside and outside the country. Individuals and small cells inspired by a variety of ideologies and personal motivations, violent extremism on racial or ethnic grounds, and violent extremism by militias are the biggest threat to the country, intelligence services have deemed.

They also wanted to deliver good news, informing about the fruits generated by the constant anti-terrorist pressure from the United States and its allies, which has degraded the foreign attack capabilities of ISIS and Al Qaeda.

They warn of the danger posed by communal conflicts, insurgency, and instability, which provide a framework that allows for the recruitment of members, the acquisition of funds, and the establishment of safe havens from which to plan attacks.

In the document, an attempt was made to review the main terrorist groups. ISIS is sticking with its vision of building a self-styled global caliphate based in Iraq and Syria, and they are working to rebuild their capabilities and wear down their opponents until the conditions are in place to take and hold the territory.

It has been observed how Al-Qaeda has increasingly delegated operational responsibility to its regional affiliates, moving away from that centralization from which they previously operated. Intelligence services consider the organization constrained in its efforts to lead a centralized global movement, but will try to maintain its presence in Afghanistan and take advantage of more permissive operating environments.

Also taking into account the Lebanese group of Hezbollah, it will try to reduce the influence of the United States both on its territory and in the Middle East. It is expected that it will continue to collaborate with Iran to develop terrorist capabilities as a complement to the group's growing conventional military capabilities.

The United States considers these three groups a threat to its nationals and interests, especially in territories where it has a presence and warns that they will continue to inspire attacks in the West.

Another group that the intelligence services have wanted to mention are foreign violent extremists with racial or ethnic motivation. This group is made up of a wide range of ideologies, including white supremacy, neo-Nazism, culturally nationalistic exclusionary beliefs, and racial conspiracy theories. They will most likely continue to pose a threat to the United States and its allies by organizing on online platforms, especially encrypted podcasts, apps and social media platforms, they warn.

The most relevant analysis of this report is the 27-page assessment is the collective view of all 18 US intelligence agencies. It is their first such look-ahead on what climate means for national security.

The first ever National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change looks at the impact of climate on national security through to 2040.

Soon, it warns, the impact of climate change will be felt around the globe.

The report says there are some ways this bleak future might be avoided. Breakthrough technologies, including accepted use of geo-engineering, are some. Another is a climate disaster which acts as a spur for greater co-operation.

The report is a sign that climate is now a central part of security thinking and that it will heighten existing problems as well as create new ones.

Climate considerations cannot be separated from other security concerns, such as competition with China. That country faces aggravated climate risks, from rising sea levels affecting millions of people in coastal cities, inland flooding threatening energy infrastructure, and desertification and migration of fish stocks that undermine its food security. The national security strategy that does not take into account these factors will obtain an incorrect diagnosis regarding the incorrect behavior of China.

The new intelligence estimate sets out the stark problems that lie ahead. But the real question will be what policymakers do about this warning?