Reflections on the education model – 2022 Brazil Higher Education Census (English version)

As I stated in my last published article (Reflections on the education model), I will write a series of articles with the aim of provoking reflection among readers of the Digital Innovation Group Newsletter. In this second article, I took advantage of the fact that on October 10th, 2023, the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research Anísio Teixeira (INEP) released the results of the 2022 Higher Education Census and I decided to do a critical reading of part of these results. I also invited Thiago Payva , who also wrote an excellent article about the census results, to contribute to the preparation of this article.

We chose some points from the census, that I would like all of us, subscribers (or not) to this Newsletter, to think a little about it. The topics were:

1. Comparison of some information on Higher Education in Brazil and OECD countries.
2. Analysis of indicators such as: dropout and completion.
3. The dizzying expansion of distance learning in Brazil.

Higher Education in Brazil and OECD countries

Analyzing Graph 5 of the material released by INEP, it appears that Brazil will have a long journey to follow so that we can reach most OECD countries. In the vast majority of countries listed, there is an evidence of an increase in the percentage of the population with higher education in the younger age group in relation to the older ones (difference between the percentage of the population – from 25 to 34 years old - blue bars - and from 55 to 64 years old - green dots). In some countries there was a more significant advance, as in the case of South Korea and Portugal, and less significant, as in the case of Finland. It is noted that the only country that shows an “involution” was Argentina, which went from 25% in the age group between 55 and 64 years old to 19% in the younger age group. When we analyze some Latin American countries, we see that Colombia and Chile are in the lead.

Despite the evolution of higher education numbers, it is unlikely that we will achieve Objective 2 of Target 12 of the National Education Plan – NEP (“ensure that 33% of young people aged 18 to 24 are in Higher Education, by 2024, the so-called net rate of registration"). Regardless of the NEP, the main question asked is the following: Is there any agenda of the Brazilian for development? In other words, what are the public policies, the economic agenda and the lines of development planned for the market to absorb all the graduates from higher education programs for the country's development?

Graph 26 shows the percentage distribution of undergraduate enrollment by areas, comparing Brazil and the average of OECD countries. It appears that the largest number of students are in the areas of business, administration and law, both in Brazil and in OECD countries. However, the other areas there is no coincidence. In this topic, two questions arise:

• Is the distribution of enrollments in OECD countries aligned with the growth outlook of these countries? And what about Brazil?
• Assuming that the distribution of enrollments in Brazil is aligned with the country's needs, can the market absorb all these graduates?

?

Trajectory Indicators

In Graph 46 we see a potential indication of a problem in higher education in Brazil. Only 40% / 41% of new students graduate within 10 years. This number represents practically twice the average completion time of courses in Brazil, since most undergraduate courses take 4 to 5 years to complete. This number is practically the same as in OECD countries (average), but after 4 to 5 years and not after 10 years. In the United States, this indicator is above 65% in many higher education institutions (Colleges and Universities). It is important to highlight that low completion rates do not necessarily imply that there is a serious problem in higher education, as students can abandon degree programs for a variety of reasons. However, it is extremely important that public and private institutions carry out a very rigorous analysis of this indicator, as the model may be extremely inefficient.

Exponential Growth of DL in Brazil

Map 3 and Graphs 20 and 22 show the expansion of the distance learning model in Brazil. This expansion is concentrated in private institutions. In the vast majority of countries, in public and private institutions, the monthly fee for distance learning is compatible with the monthly fee for the face-to-face model, if not higher. However, we know that in Brazil the monthly fee is, on average, 1/5 of the face-to-face modality monthly fee (comparison of the same programs) and, in some programs, it can reach 1/10! Could it be that this expansion, on this exponential scale, was only due to the monthly fee? Assuming that the international quality of these programs is the same as it is in Brazil, what is the model adopted by private institutions, so that they can cover all the costs linked to this modality? Talking to some people linked to the distance learning sector, there is a convergence in relation to the dropout indicator in the first semester, which is around 35% to 50%. They say that they work hard to decrease this rate, but it is useless, they generally use a Brazilian expression that is “wiping ice”. If these numbers are confirmed in the census, the dropout rate for the 2013-2022 cohort, which is around 58% (Graph 46 – Accumulated Dropout Rate), 8 years from now, could be approximately 75%, which will show, undoubtedly, that the Brazilian model of higher education is highly inefficient.

I invite you to think about it and post your ideas here. As this approach deals with matters arising from the census, exceptionally, this edition of the Newsletter will have two versions, one in Portuguese and the other in English. Thiago and I count on your considerations so that we can together propose new ideas to the Brazilian educational model.

?