Reflections on 10 Days in Taiwan and the Upcoming Elections

By Chynna Hawes

As one of this year’s Atlantic Council Millenium Fellows, I had the incredible opportunity to visit Taiwan. The Economist called Taiwan “the most dangerous place on earth” in May 2021. So with a mission to explore the macro-trends from the front lines of a global challenge, the Atlantic Council took our group of 30 Millenium Fellows representing some 17 different nationalities to the island in early November. We were shown the Economist cover no fewer than three times during our stay.

Taiwan is gearing up for the January 2024 presidential election, which in many ways will be a referendum on the future of Taiwan-China-US relations. We heard a lot about the different views on cross-strait relations, including in meetings with representatives from all three leading political parties. But we also had the amazing opportunity to learn about Taiwan’s cultural, social and economic context from representatives from academia, civil society, and the private sector.

The capstone was a visit to Kinmen Island, just three miles off the coast of mainland China, which served as a military outpost during the Cold War era. Kinmen now relies on China for its fresh water supply; it is also known for its traditional red brick and ceramic tile houses and exceptionally strong sorghum liquor, a top export back to mainland China.

There was little sense on the ground that Taiwan feels it is the most dangerous place on earth. Several people we spoke with mentioned the negative repercussions of media sensationalization of a hot geopolitical topic. People are going about their daily lives—and many are thinking about the upcoming election. While China is the main foreign policy campaign issue, there are many other policy issues shaping how Taiwanese approach the election that aren’t China.

Below are some top line thoughts on a few themes shaping the election that we heard during our trip in Taiwan.

China is the headline foreign policy issue

The January 2024 presidential election is a contest between the leading Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of the current administration, the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), an upstart third party formed in 2019. It’s being rhetorically framed as a choice between “war and peace” by the KMT (language that has been echoed/mirrored by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office).

Each party does take a different approach to cross-strait relations, but when you drill down, all are in favor of the status quo, maintaining peace and stability, and preserving Taiwan’s democracy—none advocate de jure independence. Fundamentally, it comes down to different assessments of the immediate and long-term threat to Taiwan, the best methods for deterring potential aggression, and the premise for cross-strait dialogue. All underscored that the future of Taiwan should be decided by the Taiwanese people, collectively.

• The DPP advocates a stronger Taiwan identity and broader autonomy from China. China cut-off talks with the DPP when current President Tsai took office in 2016. The DPP is willing to re-engage with China, but “without preconditions.”
• The KMT nationalist party is considered more friendly to China, highlighting the economic and cultural connections, and importance of cross-strait dialogue.
• The TPP’s approach to China is the murkiest, but believes engagement is necessary.

During our trip, the establishment KMT, supported by older generations and business, and the TPP, which is favored among younger generations, were negotiating an alliance to strengthen their position against the leading DPP. A tentative agreement broke down in just days. Politics is politics! It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Taiwan’s youth will be influential

We heard repeatedly how the election is a battle for the younger generation of voters. They’re dissatisfied with their economic prospects and feel worse off than their parents’ generation, facing a competitive job market, low wages and high rents. Like other wealthy East Asian nations, Taiwan’s birth rate is falling and among the lowest in the world, and the economy is greying. Some millennials we spoke with noted the choice to not have children is impacted by the geopolitical situation.

Increasingly frustrated with the two main political parties for failing to deliver on a better future, many in the younger generation are voting for change. They’re drawn to the candidate of the newer TPP party, Ko Wen-je, who they view as honest, straightforward, and social media-savvy.

Energy security looms large

Taiwan has made itself indispensable to the global semiconductor supply chain, which contributes significantly to the islands’ economy, national security as a “silicon shield,” as well as energy consumption. Our group visited the Hsinchu Science Park outside Taipei, home to leading semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC. Hsinchu Park alone accounts for roughly 10 percent of the islands’ total daily power consumption—Taiwan has three high-tech science parks. The highly complicated silicon chip manufacturing process demands extremely reliable energy supply—a fraction of a second interruption in electricity could send ripples through global high tech supply chains.

But Taiwan is among the world’s least energy secure economies, importing about 97 percent of its energy. Nuclear power, which accounts for just 8 percent of the island’s power, down from over 50 percent in the mid-1980s, is a hotly debated issue in the upcoming elections. The DPP plans to phase out nuclear power by 2025, and much of the public agrees largely due to safety concerns. But the business community, traditional supporters of the KMT, are concerned about the economic and geopolitical implications.

Trust in media is low, and misinformation is prevalent

Another theme we heard consistently throughout the trip was around the issue of misinformation and the risk it poses to the upcoming election. Despite having a free press, Taiwanese have one of the lowest levels of trust in media among democracies and the lowest in the Asia Pacific region according to Reporters Without Borders. Political polarization and structural weaknesses make the media environment susceptible to disinformation. Cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns occur every day but accelerate during election years. Many originate from mainland China.

Political and civil society leaders are concerned about the impact of misinformation on Taiwan’s democratic institutions writ large, but particularly on the outcome of the upcoming election given the competition for the youth swing vote. Government, the private sector and nonprofit groups are working to address the disinformation challenge, including the popular messaging App Line, and Taiwan Fact Check Center (TFC), a non-profit that aims to promote digital literacy, reliable information, and improve the information ecology in Taiwan.

Civil society is vibrant and thriving

TFC is just one example of the many civil society and NGO groups across Taiwan invested in addressing societal challenges. Our group met with Teach for Taiwan and Junyi Academy, dedicated to improving access to quality education across Taiwan. We also spent an evening with a diverse group of civil society representatives, including migrant advocacy, women’s empowerment, youth groups, media and mental health organizations. Taiwan’s civil society groups are active in shaping policies and have regular engagement with political leaders at the highest levels. They’re a clear hallmark of the strength of the islands’ democratic institutions.

Of course, there are many other issues Taiwanese will be thinking about when they head to the polls in early January—immigration, indigenous people’s rights, elder care and health care to name a few. EGA will be covering the elections and the implications of the outcomes, so stay tuned!