Reflecting on the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024

Traditions endure at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting. Suits and snow boots, carousels of meetings that even the best EAs don’t look forward to (thank you for keeping me sane, Lizzie!), and conversations at the beginning of the week about what the mood of the meeting will be.

I've always found that last point to be a dubious exercise. We all?have a tendency to?tell each other what we think and then, when we hear it back, believe that is the consensus.?In reality, there?are a wide range of views on almost any topic here. As always, the discussions have been wide-ranging, from global business conditions to the future of the planet itself. Here are some of my key takeaways from this wintry week:?

Economy

We do not appear to be en route to an economic disaster, but we also don’t look like we’ll have a sudden bounce-back – so companies don't have a clear playbook either way.

We are in a passage down the middle. There are valid debates about how stubborn inflation will be and how much central banks have really tamed it.

My personal view is we've still got some hard yards to go, given ongoing conflict-created supply-chain disruption. Companies will need to outcompete.

Geopolitics dominated conversation – “wars are by definition one of the most uncertain of events” is a quote from our Marsh McLennan dinner speaker that should stick with all of us. We heard a lot about the continuing reorganisation of supply-chains, benefiting some countries but pressuring China. In financial services, the so called Basel endgame will have many effects, including the acceleration of private credit as a source of funding while also potentially removing some funding from the energy transition. My colleague Huw van Steenis does a great job summarising his Davos takeaways here.

AI

AI was so pervasive this year, it almost felt as though you had to host something on AI as the price of entry. At our Oliver Wyman Forum and 美世 event focusing on the workforce, John Romeo remarked that 2024 will be the year this technology finally goes mainstream, and that we’d see a debate around what exactly that means in the coming months.?

Coming back to the multiplicity of views, nowhere was this more present than in conversations on AI. Ana Kreacic 's?response when asked about AI misconceptions has stuck with me: “There are two sides to everything we are looking at.” That duality of perspective is the underlying concept of a fantastic?AI report?authored by the Oliver Wyman Forum and launched in Davos.?

?Will AI be a force for good, bad, or everything in between? We still have a way to go before we can really answer this. Quantitative and qualitative feedback is a necessary start, and the 90-plus pages of this report provides just that.?

Climate and Health

At #COP28, we saw the first-ever health-focused day, an indicator of the growing concern and the need for the public sector to start solving for the challenge. Going into the week, I was very much looking forward to attending our WEF affiliate session on climate-related health issues led by Rolf Fricker . During the session, Dr. Oliver Eitelwein ?presented?our study in partnership with the WEF, the very first quantification of climate change’s impact on health. The startling statistics make for heavy but important reading — climate change could cause an additional 14.5 million deaths, $12.5 trillion in economic losses worldwide, and $1.1 trillion in extra costs to healthcare systems by 2050.?

It’s no surprise that the Global Risk Report — based on a survey conducted with over 1,400 leaders and experts by Marsh McLennan in collaboration with the World Economic Forum — has extreme weather events at No. 2 in the top 10 risks over the next two years and No. 1 over the next 10 years. There is still time for the global economy to decisively reduce emissions and enact strategies to safeguard human health from the impacts of climate change, but it’s going to take everyone, from civil society to private and public organizations, to do so.?

Nature

I attended several panels at WEF on the topic of climate and sustainability, and particularly nature. One of the most thought-diverse sessions was on pricing nature. This was not about the capitalization of a scarce resource, but how we respect it. We saw in Davos the launch of The Indigenous Peoples' Knowledge and Leadership Network, and it was great to have?Uyunkar Domingo Peas?Nampichkai, President of the Board of Directors for the Amazon Sacred Headwaters Alliance, join the discussion.?

Indigenous people protect 80% of global biodiversity. Their opinion is vital in understanding the value of nature and how we better support the stewardship undertaken by the communities on the ground. I dive deeper into my insights from Davos on nature?here.

Oliver Wyman also held its own nature event led by Matthieu De Clercq , focusing on how cities can enact policies needed to support nature. The panel highlighted the importance of boldness, experimentation with technology, and practical, cost-effective solutions for sustainable city planning.

Wrap-up

We've had a very engaging week, meeting with hundreds of clients across the public sector, the private sector, and representatives of civil society, all of whom are busy trying to work together to put some structure around the problems of the world. I speak for the Oliver Wyman delegation in saying we’ve very much enjoyed collaborating with everyone this week and are looking forward to picking up these conversations when we all get back to our homes and start pressing on with the work of the year ahead.