Reducing Project Failures through Comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis
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Reducing Project Failures through Comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis

Introduction

Studies show that only around 65% of projects worldwide are successful. The most common causes include information asymmetries, conflicting objectives between the project team and stakeholders and inadequate internal communication. To minimise these risks, solid project appraisal and transparent processes are essential. This article looks at the role of systematic project evaluation, particularly through comprehensive cost-benefit analysis (CBA), in reducing project failure and fraud. Project failures not only undermine business objectives but also have a significant economic impact, making effective project management critical to overall success.

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What Should be Included in a Thorough CBA and Project Appraisal?

A comprehensive CBA serves two main purposes: verifying that a project's benefits outweigh its costs and aiding project selection based on benefit-cost ratios. Key components of a thorough CBA and project appraisal include:

  • Following a structured evaluation process involving multiple steps to address complex issues systematically.
  • Deeply understanding business contexts, internal/external costs, and alignment with organizational strategies.
  • Mitigating optimism bias and asymmetric information through diverse appraisal teams and scenario analyses.
  • Utilizing Control-Self-Assessment (CSA) processes, especially for sizable projects, to identify risks and opportunities early.
  • Incorporating both financial and non-financial values, including intangible factors like environmental and social impacts.
  • Ensuring thorough review and verification of project assumptions, investments, and benefits by professionals and stakeholders.
  • Employing clear and easily understandable models for decision-makers.
  • Establishing mechanisms for benefit realization management.

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Integrating CBA into Project Appraisal: Good Business Practice

Conducting thorough CBAs for significant investments offers invaluable insights for organizations, beyond typical financial analyses. It aids the Board of Directors' oversight role and contributes to informed decision-making. Let's explore the value-added of CBA at various project stages:

1.????? Planning Initialization Phase

2.????? Project Planning Phase

3.????? Project Execution Phase

4.????? Project Benefit Realization Phase

5.????? Project Closure Phase

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1.????? Project Initialization Phase

In the Initialization phase business needs have to be defined and alignment of the stakeholders have to be reached. Reliable deliverables, risks, estimated costs, estimated benefits and resource requirements have therefore to be prepared and defined. Conducting a thorough CBA in the initial stage of a project is therefore of enormous importance. Some advantages of a thorough CBA in the initialization phase could be:

  • If the CBA has been based upon good and unbiased work, it can relatively objectively determine if the project is financially viable and if the expected benefits outweigh the costs.
  • It can reduce the possibility of typical fraud types in this phase, namely the misrepresentation of a need to gain approval or the exaggeration of expected benefits or market opportunities.
  • An assessment of potential risks and opportunities associated with the project can support in preparing risk mitigation steps, which can reduce project delays and overruns.
  • The involvement of stakeholders in the CBA can help define clear project objectives and clear estimated benefits, supporting stakeholder alignment

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2.????? Project Planning Phase

In the project planning phase specific requirements, tasks, timelines, project team, roles, control and coordination instruments have to be defined. A reliable project plan, work breakdown structure, budget, risk management and communication plans have to be finalized. Some advantages of a thorough CBA in the planning phase:

  • If the CBA has been based upon good and unbiased work, common fraud types like bid manipulation schemes, sponsor-misrepresentation, collusive bidding or corruption could be reduced.
  • The CBA could help in refining and detailing the project objectives and estimating costs and benefits at a more granular level.?
  • The CBA can help in identifying more detailed risks and opportunities as well as identifying relevant Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that measure the project's progress and success against its objectives.
  • A CBA could provide a reference for communicating the anticipated costs and benefits associated with various project decisions.

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3.????? Project Execution Phase

In the project execution phase the project team executes and follows through on tasks based upon the project plan. Tasks, resources, teams, suppliers, risks etc. should be objectively managed.

During the project execution phase, a thorough Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) remains especially valuable as a reference point for decision-making, resource management, and performance evaluation. Some advantages of a thorough CBA in the execution phase:

  • If the CBA has been based upon good and unbiased work, common fraud types like product substitution, cost mischarging, false reporting of progress, manipulating of KPIs, corruption and change order abuse could be reduced.
  • The CBA provide the stakeholders with a baseline for tracking and monitoring costs and benefits throughout the execution phase. Cost overruns could be identified early, which allows taking early corrective actions. The realization of anticipated benefits is made easier.
  • A CBA supports in prioritizing resource allocation.
  • A CBA can also be used as a tool for assessing the financial implications of risks and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies as well as evaluating project progress against.
  • A CBA can also serve as a communication tool to keep stakeholders informed about project progress.

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4.????? Project Benefit Realization Phase

In the benefit realization phase the progress of the project is being managed and monitored.? In this phase it should be ensured that the project’s planned benefits are realized. Some advantages of a thorough CBA in the benefit realization phase:

  • If the CBA has been based upon good and unbiased work, common fraud types like product substitution, cost mischarging, manipulating of KPIs or change order abuse could be reduced.
  • During this phase, stakeholders compare the actual costs incurred and benefits generated with the initially estimated costs respectively anticipated benefits.
  • All stakeholders are enabled to identify whether the underlying assumptions regarding costs and benefits were accurate and whether any deviations occurred. The reasons behind these variances can be better understood.
  • By comparing the actual costs and benefits, stakeholders calculate the project's ROI to determine its financial performance and effectiveness.

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5.????? Project Closure Phase

In the project closure phase, the operations and support responsibilities have to be handed over to the normal business organization. Acceptance and sign off of the project deliverables have to be obtained by the stakeholders. Some advantages of a thorough CBA in the project closure phase:

  • If the CBA has been based upon a good and unbiased work, common fraud types like fraudulent charges and fees or defective work by contractors could be reduced.
  • The closure phase compares the actual benefits achieved against the projected benefits and the stakeholders can verify the success of the project and determine if it has delivered the intended value.
  • The closure phase compares also the actual costs against the budgeted amounts outlined in the CBA and identifies cost overruns that need to be addressed.
  • By reviewing key performance indicators (KPIs) outlined in the CBA, stakeholders can determine whether the project has met its targets and objectives.
  • Stakeholders can prepare a lesson’s learned review and start improvements for future projects.

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Enhancing CBA with a Comprehensive Approach

Most CBA models propose 4 to 6 analysis steps, but the Swedish "PENG" model offers an extended 10-step framework.

This expanded approach with more steps provides several advantages:

  • Detailed framework for analysis.
  • Incorporation of diverse stakeholder perspectives.
  • Clear purpose and stakeholder alignment.
  • Reduced risk of asymmetric information.
  • Comprehensive identification and quantification of costs/benefits.
  • Thorough assessment of reliability and uncertainty.
  • Improved decision rationale and transparency, especially for complex projects.

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Short overview of the “PENG” model

The "PENG" model, based on ten steps, offers enhanced support in preparing and analysing CBAs and project appraisals, particularly for large and complex projects. Developed within the framework of the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK), this model provides a systematic approach to assess the benefits of investments and projects.

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Preparation Phase in the “PENG” model:

Compared to other models the PENG model proposes a more thorough preparation phase (steps 1 to 4). A clear definition of the purpose of the project benefit evaluation has to be given. The project’s scope has to be understood, the relevant processes, systems and stakeholders have to be in depth described and defined. The pre-preparation phase demands that a suitable analysis team and framework for the analysis work is chosen. The strong focus on the preparation phase reduces the problems with asymmetric information and project failures. To improve the preparation phase even more for significant projects, facilitated Control-Self Assessment workshops could be included to clarify goals, controls, and risks where needed.

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Analysis phase in the “PENG” model:

In the analysis phase (steps 5 to 8), a lot of care is needed. People who are responsible for the area where the project is going to be introduced should make sure that all areas that could be affected by the project are represented. Techniques like brainstorming or objectives analysis should be used to reduce eventual asymmetric information between the project team and its stakeholders. For significant projects, facilitated Control-Self Assessment workshops to clarify project risks could be included. Input data for the PENG model includes project costs, anticipated benefits, implementation timelines, adoption rates, productivity improvements, and other relevant factors. A reliable data collection and analysis are critical to ensuring the accuracy and reliability of the cost-benefit analysis. To get a trustworthy PENG evaluation, it is essential to identify as many benefit effects as possible. With the help of the process, the anticipated benefits resulting from the project should be quantified.

Benefits could be classified into three different categories;

  • Direct benefits
  • Indirect benefits
  • “Intangible benefits etc.”

?Examples;

  • Direct: Increased efficiency, productivity gains, cost savings, revenue growth
  • Indirect: Increased customer interest in your business or brand
  • Intangible: Improved employee morale

The reliability of the evaluation should be verified with questions about if the evaluated benefits are realistic in relation to the total value of the complete area under investigation. It’s equally important to understand the possible costs of the proposed decision or project. The relevant costs could be assessed and classified in three categories;

  • Direct Costs
  • Indirect Costs
  • “Intangible Costs etc.”

Examples:

  • Direct costs such as labour, manufacturing and the cost of software or machinery
  • Indirect costs like fixed expenses, such as utilities and rent, that contribute to the overhead of conducting business.
  • Intangible costs: These are any current and future costs that are difficult to measure and quantify. These could be qualitative items, such as lost productivity or reduced customer satisfaction as well as opportunity costs (lost benefits, or opportunities, that arise when a business pursues one product or strategy over another).

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Calculating and comparing phase in the “PENG” - model:

The benefits and the costs should be mapped on a timeline when they are likely to occur. It must also be ensured all costs and all benefits are recorded in the same monetary unit. All assumptions used to estimate the benefit and cost values should be thoroughly documented and discussed with project members and stakeholders.

Calculating the net benefit is usually the easiest step, as it simply reduces the gross benefit by the costs. It typically also involves discounting future costs and benefits to account for the time value of money and assesses the net present value (NPV) and the CBA ratio of the project.

?? NPV = ∑ Present Value of Projected Benefits – ∑ Present Value of Projected Costs

?? CBA ratio = ∑ Present Value of Projected Benefits / ∑ Present Value of Projected Costs

The formula for a cost-benefit analysis ratio can be expressed as: Projected benefits / projected costs = CBA ratio. The CBA ratio provides value by calculating the ratio of the sum of the present value of the projected benefits against the sum of the present value of the projected costs. The greater the value above 1, the greater are the benefits associated with the alternative considered. Sensitivity analysis may be conducted to evaluate the robustness of results under different scenarios and assumptions.

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Conclusion:

A comprehensive CBA process provides a solid framework for assessing the costs and benefits of a project. A detailed and systematic approach can reduce the risk of project failure. Some of the underlying causes, such as internal information asymmetries, conflicting goals between the project team and stakeholders and inadequate internal communication, can be reduced with the help of a thorough CBA process

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References:



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