Redefining Africa's Narrative: 2024 Trends To Watch
A year ago, I warned of a world gripped by “permacrisis” – a state of flux, change, unending upheaval, and in 2024, if anything, that crisis has deepened. Look no further than the fact that we are already two years into the Russia-Ukraine war, which has resulted in volatile and elevated commodity and energy prices globally and fuelled inflation in many regions across the world. And that’s only the tip of the iceberg.
Speaking of icebergs, we aren’t even touching on the impact of climate change – which scientists have warned us will be catastrophic for Africa, despite the fact that our carbon emissions contribute just 4% of global carbon emissions even though we comprise 17% of the world’s population.
It’s a lot to deal with.
Within this turmoil, there is certainly peril but there is also profound opportunity. And as leaders, we have to ensure we aren’t just bracing for impact – but leading from the front. Now, more than ever, we should be actively ensuring we understand both new trends arising from the permacrisis, as well as existing trends that are deepening as a result.
Summed up, the opportunity I see is for Africa to really step up and write its own narrative; to carve out its own destiny by fully embracing these four trends:
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Trend #1: African SMEs must pivot or perish
The future belongs to nimble small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are already the engines of vibrant economies, particularly in the developing world, and on our continent especially. But success now demands agility and adaptability . In this sharing economy, SMEs have to leverage new ways of working – not only to be innovative – these are table stakes and a requirement for relevance.
An example of the pivot is SMEs embracing the use of increasingly pervasive mobile wallets to transact with your customers, in both rural and urban areas.? Collaborating through existing channels, such as local ecommerce marketplaces, that your customers use daily, will improve distribution of your product, and improve your income streams.? In a highly commoditized world, with around 44 million SMEs in Sub-Saharan Africa alone, if we can’t beat them, we should join them or at least use them.?
Identify new markets, leverage technology and AI, and embrace partnerships – the recipe for success will have to change, and SMEs will have to play in spaces they haven’t played in before or be swept aside by the tide of change.
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Trend #2 – The African talent advantage
In the developed world, a global talent crunch is brewing. In the US, for instance, there aren’t enough experienced or qualified people to fill available vacancies (estimates suggest only 42% and 44% of professional and business service roles, respectively, could be filled. In 2018, Korn Ferry was already predicting a talent shortage in the developed world worth $85?trillion by 2030.
Africa, with its vibrant and youthful workforce, stands poised to capitalise on this. With a longer term view of serving global requirements for our skilled resources, we must accelerate our grassroots investments in key education skillsets at school level and in family planning and financial literacy now.? In the immediate short term, with the global demand for some skillsets outpacing supply, we need to focus on connecting our populations to remote-work infrastructure, building an ecosystem of skilled professionals with flexible, purpose-driven careers. Nigerian software engineers, Kenyan copywriters and South Africa contact centre agents working for a global audience – this is not a hope, it’s happening now and the future possibilities are endless.
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Trend #3: Embrace new ways of working – the time for talk is over
Research published by the International Monetary Fund predicts 40% of jobs in developed economies will disappear to automation . Experts like Kai-Fu Lee, founder of venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures and a top voice on tech in China, believe the figure could be closer to 50% and I agree. This isn’t science fiction; this is reality.
Africans are not the first people who come to mind when it comes to digital skills. That narrative needs to change if we are to grab the opportunity presented by the talent crunch. Leaders across Africa must prioritise upskilling and reskilling their workforce.
Foster a culture of lifelong learning, embrace AI-powered tools, partner with the industry to access services and products that aren’t your forte and invest in skills that will allow you and your teams to lead your business is this new way of working. Critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence are the mandatory requirements for every employee that remains – these are traits that robots can’t replicate.
The trend is not new, but now, it’s critical.
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Trend #4: Financial inclusion – growth meets societal impact
Some 500 million Africans remain locked out of traditional financial systems. Enter micro-finance, empowered by AI and alternative data. Imagine farmers securing loans based on crop yield data, or refugees accessing credit through verified digital identities.
Already, large retailers and banks are using anonymised data collaboration to broaden their credit scoring abilities – a more inclusive financial landscape is now eminently possible.
Leaders must champion policies that support fintech innovation, paving the way for a continent where everyone has a seat at the economic table. Focusing on financial inclusion helps make Africa a better life for all its people and is key to release our full economic potential!
Embracing the trends
Navigating the ongoing permacrisis demands resilience, but it also demands vision. These trends paint a picture of a dynamic, opportunity-rich Africa, but harnessing that potential requires action. We must invest in talent, embrace technology, and redefine success on our own terms.
We have to move beyond just hoping for a better future to actively building the future we want. Because with a combination of luck, opportunity, and hard work – in a world defined by change – lies the potential for Africans not just to survive, but to thrive.
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COO - Old Mutual iWYZE | Chairperson @ First for Women Foundation | NED | Trustee | Organizational Leadership | Business Coach
9 个月The African talent advantage is huge Lee, as Africa will continue to grow rapidly thanks to its youthful population and high fertility rates. The UN population projection for Africa in 2100 is just over 4 billion, approximately 40% of the projected world population at that time. We won’t be around to see if that’s right or wrong, but we can be pretty sure that Africa’s share of the world population will continue to grow from the current 17%. This reinforces the need you call out for Africa to improve its education and training to meet the ever-increasing global skills requirements. These improvements, along with improved governance and infrastructure, should contribute toward the stable framework Africa needs to accelerate its growth. The future possibilities and opportunities are indeed endless. As Seneca said – “Luck happens when preparation meets opportunity”. ?In Africa we need to accelerate our preparation to make sure we can take advantage of the global opportunities and make our own luck!
Fueling HOPE for adaptive mastery of change. Consulting psychologist making change work.
9 个月Great article Lee Naik and comments Nikki Bush, Business Speaker #adaptability managing the accelerating pace of change Top skill of the moment The impact of generative AI has reshaped the world of work more quickly than even experts imagined. To study this phenomenon, we looked at “skills of the moment” — those that grew most quickly in a defined six-month period from 2022 to 2023. One skill rose to the top of the list: adaptability. Adaptability and agility are mission-critical for both people and organizations. And since the pace of change in the world of work is predicted to increase, adaptability will help your team stay versatile and composed amid these changes. “Adaptability is the best way to have agency right now,” says Aneesh Raman. “At the core of managing change is building that muscle of adaptability.” https://www.dhirubhai.net/business/talent/blog/talent-strategy/linkedin-most-in-demand-hard-and-soft-skills?src=e-nl&trk=learning-weekly-blog-newsletter
My take out – regardless of how dark the clouds look, there are opportunities, seek them out, adapt to be relevant, be intentional, and we’ll succeed together as Africans. Thanks Lee
Leading the way to increased team performance and bottom line impact
9 个月Nice, succinct share. I am speaking about another trend that business leaders need to get their heads around due to the permacrisis and it is that strategy doesn't unfold in a straight line anymore. You will get from A - Z but not necessarily in that order because there are so many more extenuating circumstances that have to be dealt with today. That requires a very nimble and expansive thinking leader who doesn't wear blinkers and holds the reins lightly. What do you think about this?