Red Flag Alert – Let it Snow

Has Vail changed its 'vision'?

When companies talk about targets or their “vision,” then suddenly don’t – and start mixing up metrics – the red flags get hoisted.

Example: Vail Resorts (MTN), the largest operator of ski resorts, including the five most visited in North America.

It seems Vail fell into the trap of so many recreational-related entities in the early days of the post-pandemic reopening, thinking the numbers they were seeing post-Covid were the start of something new.

As I’ve pointed out previously, we’ve seen it in bowling, and golf and as Vail shows....skiing.

You can see it clearly in the way Vail has been changing its messaging, starting at its Investor Day in April 2021.

‘Ultimate Vision’

That’s when Vail first mentioned its “vision” of getting “75% of total lift revenue” – even higher – from “advance commitments” by the sale of pre-season passes.

By June of 2022, advance commitments were selling so well that the company made a point of saying that they had hit 61% of lift revenue compared with 26% in 2008.

Management has reiterated “our ultimate vision” of 75% multiple times since then, last mentioning it at its Investors Conference in March, when it included this chart in its presentation...

But if you look closely, you’ll see (click here to read the full post)