Recycled 360 - March '25 Edition

We know we're a little late to the punch this month, but it’s been a wild start—especially on the ferrous side! With everything going on, we won’t even try to predict where Aluminum and Copper will land by month’s end. Stay tuned as we keep a close eye on the markets!

As we push to finish Q1 strong, the scrap metal industry is navigating a whirlwind of supply constraints, policy shifts, and resilience-building strategies with wild NF commodities swings.

Tight supply continues to dominate headlines, with ferrous scrap inventories hovering near neutral and collection challenges keeping mills on edge. Posts on LinkedIn,? X, and industry chatter suggest recycled steel prices could climb, not from soaring demand but from scarcity… but we will let Chad tell it like the charts tell it!

So as tariffs stir the pot this month, and most likely will probably keep stirring them throughout the year, buckle up because it feels like it’s only going to get more wild as the year moves on! LFG!

Hey everyone! ?? Hope you’re thriving out there! This month, we’re unpacking the freshest trends in the steel and scrap metal industry. ?? Buckle up—it’s a rollercoaster of market shifts, each twist revealing a new opportunity. Let’s dive in! ??

?? Month-to-Month Breakdown ??

Here’s the scoop on what’s moving the needle:

Bear Case ??

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped from 44,544 to 43,191 (-3.04%). A slight dip, but still plenty of runway. ??
• Crude Oil: Slid from $72.53 to $68.46/barrel (-5.61%). Energy’s cooling off—could signal shifts ahead. ???

Bull Case ??

• Pig Iron: Jumped from $424 to $460/MT (+8.49%). Steady upward pressure here. ??
• HRC Prices: Surged from $740 to $915/ton (+23.65%). Hot-rolled coil is heating up! ??
• Copper: Climbed from $4.23 to $4.56/LB (+7.80%). A solid gain for this heavyweight. ??
• Shred Feed: Rose from $192 to $222/NT (+15.62%). Scrap’s on the move! ??
• 80:20 HMS: Ticked up from $355 to $369/MT (+3.94%). Modest, but notable. ??

?? Key Insights to Chew On

US steelmakers and suppliers are facing a challenging March as President Trump’s proposed 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada threaten to disrupt the ferrous scrap market. ???? With the tariffs kicking in today, mills are ramping up production to meet surging steel demand following Trump’s earlier 25% steel tariffs, due March 12. ??

The import tax could tighten an already strained scrap supply, potentially driving prices up by $30-50/gross ton or more. ?? While tariffs could add over $100/gt to key scrap grades, it’s unclear who’ll bear the cost. A shift in US scrap from exports to domestic mills may ease some pressure, with 2024 imports from Canada and Mexico averaging 270,000gt/month. ??

As major suppliers redirect sales to the competitive US market, plate and structural scrap remains more available in the south due to demolition activity. ??? However, the uncertainty around these tariffs keeps the industry on edge. ??

For the speculators out there: CME Busheling futures for April are sitting pretty at $530/GT today. That’s an $80/GT gap between February and April. ?? Think this rally’s got legs—or ready to fade? Now’s the time to place your bets! ??

Here’s the kicker: we’re in a supply-driven scrap market right now, and history tells us these tend to have “skinny legs”—they don’t stick around long. ? Mill operating rates are hovering at 79% today. Rewind six months to 78% rates, and HRC was lounging at $700/ton—now it’s flexing at $900/ton. ?? Markets feel a little unhinged, don’t they? Predicting what’s next is anyone’s guess, but the disconnect is real. ??

What do you think—bullish or bearish vibes ahead? Drop your thoughts below! ?? Let’s keep the convo rolling. ???

Another month, and another write up about tariffs. Believe me, there are other things occurring in the aluminum world but all are dwarfed by the size, scope, and impact of these tariffs. To make matters worse, there doesn’t seem to be a concise plan on how these tariffs will be applied across the aluminum products. I’ve tried to stay abreast of the situation as our company imports a lot of aluminum scrap (particularly from our northern and southern neighbors) and even as late as the morning of the first tariff wave, I was reading conflicting messages from various trade groups and research firms on how aluminum, particularly scrap, would be handled. I’ll get to some of what I’ve learned a little later in this column. Losses in office productivity from March Madness don’t hold a candle to tariff chaos.

But first, let’s review all the tariffs in play. If you have a hard time keeping them all straight, don’t worry, you aren’t alone. Essentially there are 2 separate sets of tariffs being talked about, which I’ll refer to as Border Tariffs and Sector Tariffs.

• Border Tariffs – These batch of tariffs were born out of the campaign promises to strengthen border security and limit the flow of illegal drugs to the US. They were going to levy 25% tariffs in all imports from Mexico and Canada as well as 10% on imports from China. The one exception for Canada being energy and critical minerals would only see a 10% tariff as opposed to the 25%. Originally set to take place on February 4th, they were postponed 30 days with many experts viewing these as a bargaining chip for negotiations. It was widely believed these would never come to fruition, but they did go into effect as of the morning of this writing (March 4th), but the big question remains as to how long.

• Sector Tariffs – The sector tariffs are ones on Steel and Aluminum that were mentioned for the first time a couple hours before the Super Bowl. These tariffs would be an overhaul to the Section 232 Tariff that has been in place since Trump’s first term. Currently at 10% for aluminum and steel, tariffs on imported manufactured goods of these commodities would increase to 25% and the copious amount of exemptions that were granted previously, would all be stripped away. These tariffs are set to be enforced on March 12th.

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Are Scrap Catalytic Converters the New War Bond? Recyclers Aid the US in Creating a Secure Supply Chain

This statement, Are Scrap Catalytic Converters the New War Bond, might sound like an exaggeration, but is it? Both the Trump and Biden Administrations have emphasized by Executive Order the importance of securing the domestic supply chain of critical minerals to national security and the economy.?

In May 2018, Jeffery A. Green, then president of a bipartisan government-relations firm in Washington DC and a former US Air Force commander, wrote in Defense News that, “without access to such minerals, our precision-guided missiles will not hit their targets, our aircraft and submarines will sit unfinished in depots, and our war-fighters will be left without the equipment they need to complete their missions.”?

Jim Sims Vice President of External Affairs NioCorp Developments Ltd. testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources that in the 1960s what took 12 elements on the periodic table to create a computer chip now takes 60 elements. We need all of these and more of them.?

The 2018 and expanded-2022 list of critical minerals produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of the Interior (DOI) contains 50 mineral commodities, including Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) which come from mining, recycling, or import. The United States produces less than 10% of the global supply of most critical minerals, relying heavily on imports for many of these essential resources. China dominates the production of rare earth elements, accounting for about 61% of global production and is also a major producer of other critical minerals, including graphite, lithium, and cobalt, contributing significantly to the global supply. Russia is a key producer of PGMs, including palladium (around 40-45% of global production) and platinum (about 10-15%). Russia also produces significant amounts of aluminum, nickel, cobalt, titanium, and other critical minerals.?

Platinum group metals (PGMs) play a crucial role in various military applications due to their unique properties. They are used in catalytic converters for military vehicles to reduce harmful emissions and meet environmental regulations. These metals are also essential in the production of high-performance electronics used in communication systems, radar, and other advanced military equipment. Platinum, in particular, is a critical component in fuel cells, which are being explored for military applications due to their efficiency and reliability. Additionally, PGMs are used in various aerospace applications, including jet engines and other high temperature environments, because of their durability and resistance to extreme conditions.?

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Exciting Updates from Tire Reclaim

As a leader in the fast-paced tire recycling industry, Tire Reclaim has several important updates to share with our readers.

Tire Recycling Bill 1089 Advances

After nearly two years of dedicated meetings with city leaders, the Idaho DEQ, the Attorney General’s office, and many other key stakeholders, we are proud to announce that the Tire Recycling Bill 1089 has officially made it to the Senate floor. Having passed through the Health and Welfare Committee, the bill is now on its third reading—just one step away from a vote! This is a significant milestone in our efforts to eliminate dangerous and hazardous tire piles in Idaho once and for all. We believe this bill is a crucial step toward protecting the health and safety of Idaho’s citizens.

A New Partnership for the Magic Valley, ID

We are also excited to share that we’ve formed a new public-private partnership with Southern Idaho Solid Waste. This collaboration aims to foster sustainable tire management practices while creating a positive environment for the residents of the Magic Valley.

Equipment Enhancements

Tire Reclaim is continuing to innovate, with numerous upgrades and new equipment placements in the works. While we can’t dive into all the details, rest assured that we are pushing forward on multiple fronts to recycle tires into everyday products that benefit our communities.

Click to read the Statement of Purpose

Nucor Raises Prices: Analyzing the Latest HRC Price Hike | MAR. 25 https://steelindustry.news/nucor-raises-prices-analyzing-the-latest-hrc-price-hike/

Update: Scrap metals included in emergency tariffs on Canada, Mexico | MAR .25 https://www.recyclingtoday.com/news/scrap-metals-included-in-emergency-tariffs-canada-mexico/