The Recruiter's Outlook (November 2024)

Renewables and Trump 2.0

Over the past three weeks, most professionals in renewable energy (myself included) have been thinking about the future of renewable energy under another Trump presidency.?

In my case, I dug through the archives of my Recruiter’s Outlook blog to find a post from December of 2016, Trump Presidency Will Be the Next Catalyst for Renewable Energy. Did my forecast for industry growth, despite government skepticism towards our field, bode well? The answer is more complex than yes or no, and can also depend on the perspective of the news source.

As you can see from the chart below, renewable energy installation growth doesn’t always match the political party divide. You can clearly see the huge uptick at the onset of the Biden Administration, followed by a dramatic decline, in large part due to the increased Federal Interest Rate that limited investment in new clean energy initiatives.

No one can question that the Federal tax incentives (signed by both political parties!) helped our once-niche industry jump into mainstream acceptance, but there are so many more factors besides a presidential opinion that contribute to the sustained and continual growth of renewable energy: cost of capital, state mandates, manufacturing costs, interconnection queues, permitting processes, etc.

As you can see from the chart below, renewable energy generation did not slow under Trump 1.0. We will now have to assess how contributing factors shape the four years ahead, without Harris and with Trump.

We Need Energy, Now!

We can expect the President to address energy within his first 100 days in office. Neither major US political party can deny the vital need for energy in the United States. We can’t produce or import energy fast enough to keep up with the demand.??As buildings and vehicles become more electrical, we need to produce more energy, and we need more energy storage.

One of the biggest changes in the energy demand landscape are data centers for the next generation of AI computing. Listen to Goldman Sachs’ CEO Jared Cohen talk about this issue on CNBC. Data centers are procuring energy at a rapid pace and locking in longterm power purchase agreements to keep the rates low. And, more significantly, companies in corporate America focused on ESG initiatives and REC investments are closing long-term PPAs with renewable energy.

While both parties have implemented import tariffs on manufactured goods, you can bet Trump will double down on tariffs and may include Mexico and Canada.

Over the past two years, the Inflation Reduction Act has done a great job in incentivizing manufacturers to set up production lines in the United States; as a result, project developers are now asking for domestic products in order to get the added incentives for their projects. With the IRA in place, the US now has over 300 manufacturing plants operating and scheduled to open over the next few years to support the renewable energy supply chain which is bringing $120 billion investment into our economy.

Clean Energy Jobs Under Trump

As you can see from the chart below, solar jobs slightly dipped during the first Trump Administration. And even though there's been an increase in solar job creation under President Biden, there hasn’t been a major change (yet) in manufacturing job creation.?

Trump 2.0 has a real opportunity to change this narrative. Between import tariffs and domestic manufacturing incentives under the IRA, we could see a spur of new manufacturing jobs across the US. With Elon at his ear this time, let’s hope for a better outcome for our industry!

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If you are currently exploring a new job in your renewable energy career, we invite you to have a look at our careers portal. If you're looking to hire top talent in manufacturing, project development, finance, construction, operations, or energy asset management professionals, reach out to us today.

William V. Liuzza

CEO, EnergeiaWorks & Founder of Renewables UnWind