Recovery and beyond - A renewed Northern Territory population strategy

It is why here in the Northern Territory we have commissioned a report to look at tackling a serious challenge like population growth.

The report titled, "Recovery and beyond - a renewed Northern Territory population strategy,"?includes?recommendations for?industry sector?and population growth based on detailed modelling.

We have briefed the NT?Government on this report and will be advocating?for the adoption of this strategy as a component of the NT's?economic recovery as we move through and beyond the pandemic.

Exclusive and free of charge for?members, hear from the report producers, Acil Allen, as they provide an overview of?the report and answer your questions.

Register here for our exclusive member only briefing

Date: Tuesday 8th February Time: 11:30am-12:30am (Darwin)

Cost: Free of charge for members

Report Summary

The Northern Territory’s slow population growth and outflow of young families interstate has constrained the Territory’s economic growth and poses a significant threat to future economic growth if left unchecked.?

In recent years the Northern Territory has been faced with:?

• ?an annual average population growth rate for the five years prior to COVID-19 (2014-2019) of 0.27 per cent compared with 1.57 per cent growth for Australia?
• several years of negative or low population growth, including a continuing net loss of people interstate
• increased departures of early career workers, those nearing retirement age and those who have recently retired?
• dramatic declines in children and teenagers migrating to the Northern Territory arising from fewer families moving to the Northern Territory?
• a continuing outflow of young people interstate with the loss of over 1,000 people in the year to March 2021 and over 4,000 people in 2018-19 due to the wind-down of construction of the Ichthys LNG project
• lower interstate migration from traditional key markets such as South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria
• declining levels of overseas migration in recent years with overseas migration now largely halted as a result of COVID-19 restrictions.?

A key challenge for the Territory’s economic recovery will be to meet skill shortages and attract and retain labour.?

A Renewed Northern Territory Population Strategy should map a demographic profile that supports the economic vision and potential for the Northern Territory, it should refuse to accept as inevitable the loss of young people and families interstate and the ongoing low population growth in the Northern Territory.

To highlight the benefits of developing a Renewed Northern Territory Population Strategy, our report modelled two scenarios:?

• The Base Case Scenario assumes that population growth will continue to grow at the same annual average growth rate for the five years prior to COVID-19 (2014-2019) of 0.27 per cent. Under this scenario the Northern Territory population would only increase by around 6,650 persons over the next ten years.?
• Under the High Growth Scenario, it is assumed that the Northern Territory’s population would grow at an assumed growth rate of 1.42 per cent per annum. Under this scenario the Northern Territory’s population would increase by 30,753 persons over the next ten years. Economic impact of increasing Northern Territory’s population?

If the Northern Territory’s population grew at around 1.4 per cent growth per annum, then compared to the base case:?

• the real economic output of Northern Territory would increase by a cumulative total of $20 billion over the ten years to 2030-31?
• in present value terms this would be a gain of $12.6 billion. This is equivalent to a gain of 47 per cent of Norther Territory’s current Gross State Product (GSP).3?
• there would be an average annual increase in GSP of around $2 billion. Impacts on employment Impacts on the property sector?

Under the High Growth Scenario it is estimated there would be a cumulative gain of 23,000 jobs in the Northern Territory (measured by Full Time Equivalents/FTE) over the ten years to 2031, with an annual average gain of around 2,250 FTE jobs.?

Under a high population growth scenario there would be an:?

• increase in dwelling demand of around 11,550 dwelling by 2031?
• an increase in dwelling investment of $1.1 billion by 2031.?

A Renewed Northern Territory Population Strategy: Recovery and Beyond should be a key plank of the Northern Territory’s economic development strategy post COVID-19.?

A sustainable and growing population will be imperative to underpin future workforce needs and support business confidence, growth and investment.?

In the fight for talent in the recovery following COVID-19 restrictions it will be imperative that the Northern Territory is able to attract and retain more young people and building on the positive net interstate migration trends over the last year.?

The Northern Territory is already facing skill shortages in many occupations and without increased investments in training by industry and government combined with an aggressive migration strategy the Territory will likely face serious skill shortages and skill gaps which will impact on economic growth.?

Over the next five years (2022-2027), the Northern Territory should aim to:?

• double the intake of independent skilled migrants and better target to skills in demand?
• reduce the loss of young people and families interstate to net zero?
• attract a growing share of business migrants and business investment in key sectors?
• better support humanitarian migration into the Territory?
• increase the level of ‘chain migration’ by sponsoring family or friends of recent migrants?
• reboot international education and aim to increase international student numbers to10,000?
• provide increased support to families with improvements in liveability and housing affordability to support strong population growth.?

While population growth is important for economic growth so too are increases to productivity and investment to increase living standards and growth per capita.?

The Population Strategy therefore needs to be an integral part of a broader economic development platform with a sharp and renewed focus on the five key areas of comparative advantage including:?

• Tourism?
• Defence and space?
• International education?
• Resources and energy?
• Agribusiness.?

Feel free to reach out anytime to discuss

Ruth Palmer | Executive Director