Recap Week9 2025: The Aftermath

Highlights:

Markets getting smoked and bringing us back to 2021 with BTC worst month since June22 and worst Feb in 11 years. ByBit restores and publishes post-mortem report. SEC ends multiple investigations. Citadel could enter the game. Bank of America wants into stablecoins if permitted by law. Binance denies everything as usual. NVDA earnings. Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits mutli-year low. More tariffs. US PCE.

Here we go:

BTC:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343198/bitcoin-etfs-over-half-a-billion-dollars-net-daily-outflows-crypto-price-rout
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/44-percent-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-buying-hodling
• https://cryptoslate.com/insights/bitcoin-fear-greed-index-hits-extreme-fear-mirroring-48k-dip-in-2024-before-all-time-high/
• https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/26/u-s-bitcoin-etfs-see-record-daily-outflow-of-over-usd930m-as-carry-trades-yield-goes-below-10-year-treasury-note
• https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-falls-to-83k-facing-increased-downside-pressure-in-air-gap-zone/
• https://www.theblock.co/post/344030/blackrock-adds-bitcoin-etf-to-portfolio-marketed-to-financial-advisors-report

ETH:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343150/ethereum-developers-activate-pectra-upgrade-on-holesky-testnet-finalization-pending
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343753/ether-options-traders-brace-for-march-slump-hedge-against-deeper-losses

2021:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343333/crypto-market-cap-falls-to-november-2021-levels-following-bybit-hack-memecoin-bust

ByBit:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/342896/bybit-ceo-says-exchange-has-closed-shortfall-in-eth-reserves-plans-to-release-audited-por-report
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/bybit-repays-bitget-loan-after-hack
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343398/bybit-receives-600-million-in-eth-deposits-from-mirana-ventures-arkham
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343530/lazarus-appears-to-compromise-safe-developer-machine-in-lead-up-to-1-5-billion-bybit-hack-report

SEC investigations ending

• https://www.theblock.co/post/342966/robinhood-says-sec-closing-investigation-into-crypto-trading-platform-without-enforcement-action
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343353/sec-drops-uniswap-labs-investigation-as-agency-continues-crypto-friendly-push-wsj
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-closes-investigation-gemini-no-enforcement-action
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343810/sec-will-drop-case-against-metamask-says-consensys-founder-lubin
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343835/coinbase-case-officially-dropped-by-sec

Citadel:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343075/ken-griffin-says-citadel-could-enter-as-market-maker-on-exchanges-like-coinbase-pushes-trump-for-regulatory-clarity

Binance (BNB):

• https://cryptoslate.com/binance-denies-claims-of-dumping-ethereum-and-solana/

Bank of America (BoFA) - Stablecoins:

• https://cryptoslate.com/us-financial-giants-bank-of-america-look-to-enter-stablecoin-market-as-paypal-advances-pyusd/

Nvidia earnings:

• https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-first-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2025-02-26/

Fear & Greed Index:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343758/extreme-fear-crypto-fear-greed-index-hits-multi-year-low-as-bitcoin-sinks-below-86000

Tariffs reaction:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343924/bitcoin-dips-below-80000-and-eth-tests-2100-amid-trump-tariff-concerns

US PCE:

• https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/28/pce-inflation-january-2025-.html

MK Opinion

Regarding the BTC ETF in- and outflows; mentioned many times that it was a combination of long only and basis trading/relative value plays. Funding rates down, Liquidations Up.

This week sell-off was either the aftermath of ByBit, macro-inflation related, Trump Politics (Tariffs), US tech weak, several US states postponing Bitcoin reserve. Memecoins crushed so retail knock-out. Also volatile open interest conditions which makes me wonder. As long as “exchanges” either CEX or DEX offers 50x or whatever leverage, we will continue to experience these drawdowns. And in the case of Bitcoin specifically, you can add Michael Saylor to the mix with his dangerous behaviour.

Equities less impacted again. Bank of America and SEC ending investigations good news but completely ignored.

Summary:

Regulators: Bullish

Institutions: Bullish

Asset managers: Bullish

Crypto Twitter: Bearish

Retail: Bearish

Coin | Other News:

Raydium (RAY):

• https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/24/raydium-s-ray-dives-25-as-pump-fun-appears-to-test-own-amm-exchange

Ethena (ENA):

• https://www.theblock.co/post/342955/ethena-100-million-usd-private-ena-token-sale-new-chain-institutional-product

Strategy (MSTR Equity):

• https://www.theblock.co/post/341316/strategy-bitcoin
• https://protos.com/strategy-trades-at-nine-month-low-multiple-to-its-bitcoin-holdings/
• https://www.theblock.co/post/343378/leveraged-etfs-tied-to-bitcoin-stockpiler-strategy-drop-nearly-50-in-just-five-days

Dekabank:

• https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/24/dekabank-rolls-out-crypto-trading-custody-services-for-institutions-bloomberg
• https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/28/boerse-stuttgart-partners-with-dekabank-to-offer-crypto-trading-for-institutional-clients

EDX Markets:

• https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/21/embargoed-wall-street-backed-crypto-exchange-edx-markets-adds-17-new-cryptocurrencies-including-xrp-sol-trump-coin

Polygon (POL) - AAVE

• https://www.theblock.co/post/343276/polygon-could-lose-over-300-million-in-tvl-as-aave-votes-to-halt-lending-on-pos-chain

Kasperksy warning:

• https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2025/02/26/hackers-are-using-fake-github-code-to-steal-your-bitcoin-kaspersky

Ondo Finance (ONDO) - Mastercard:

• https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/02/26/ondo-finance-to-bring-rwas-to-mastercard-network

Avalanche (AVAX):

• https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2025/02/26/avalanche-visa-card-goes-live-aiming-to-further-the-mass-adoption-of-crypto

Solana (SOL):

• https://protos.com/solana-supply-to-jump-2-2-this-saturday-in-biggest-unlock-to-date/
• https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/28/cme-group-to-launch-solana-futures-as-demand-for-crypto-derivatives-grows

Actively Managed Strategy:

MKs Short Term Risk Report:

• Justin Sun (TRON, Huobi-HTX, WBTC)
• Tether (USDT)
• Binance (BNB) - Tether (USDT) - Justin Sun triangle
• Erratic behaviour Trump Admin
• Regulation overkill in both stablecoins and DEFI
• Re-Staking uncertainties: dangerous concept that could lead to mass liquidation and the collapse of the rehypothecated tokens
• Capital Markets in general (Yen Carry Trade, China, Credit Event / Yields, FED not delivering)
• Geopolitics
• Memecoin Frenzy, excessive leverage, Agressive and unsustainable “promised” APY’s
• Hacks / Exploits
• Fragmented liquidity across (L2) chains.
• Projects running out of runway
• Michael Saylor - Strategy (MSTR)

MKs Long-Term Outlook:

• Political and Regulatory inflection
• Capital Flows Increasing
• Fundamentals improving (Adoption, Generating Revenue)
• Innovation accelerating

The week ahead by Nomura and Livesquawk:

• https://www.nomuraconnects.com/focused-thinking-posts/the-economy-next-week/?
• https://www.livesquawk.com/report/special_ls-focus-on-the-week-ahead

Upcoming Events:

Will be attending the following conferences/events:

13-14 march 2025: Web3 Amsterdam:

https://web3amsterdam.com/

17 april 2025: Beursinside Crypto Congres RAI Amsterdam: https://beursinside.nl/crypto-congres/

19th-25th of May: Dutch Blockchain week:

https://dutchblockchainweek.com/

Agenda:

• https://bdc.consulting/calendar
• https://www.bcnl.foundation/events?page=1&sort=-date

Tokens:

Unlocks:

Source: https://tokenomist.ai/

Have a wonderful weekend, and thanks for reading!

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