Rebuilding post-COVID economy via better careers advice

This article first appeared in University World News 05/09/20 - https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200902153405334

Since the reinstatement of post-study work visas in the United Kingdom in September 2019, the higher education sector has been rubbing its hands in expectation. Applications from South Asian students have skyrocketed – for example, Indian visa applications are up over 90%.

The early signs from UCAS are encouraging – placed international undergraduate students were up 2% at the end of the first week despite the wringing of hands over COVID-19 endangering enrolment growth.

Where the sector has been a little quieter, however, is on making good on the promise of post-study work. With the notable exception of the Universities UK International Employability Conference in January 2020, nobody has addressed the question about employment in a post-Brexit UK likely to be facing recession.

Attendance at the conference had a good mix of alumni, careers and international office leaders, but there was little commitment to improving resources for international careers information advice and guidance.

The Association of Graduate Careers Advisory Services (AGCAS) and the Office for Students remain silent on whether or not their remit even covers international students.

This is despite an intervention from the Secretary of State for Education Gavin Williamson who said of the new Graduate Route: “We have done something for you, now we need you to do something for us.” He went on to outline the need for universities to ensure students “are supported into employment, whether in their home country or the UK”.

The possibility of a UK jobs Armageddon for both home and international graduates in summer 2021 makes this need even more pressing.

Post-study jobs crisis

The response from champions of the sector has been counter-intuitive and lacked insight, with both Jo Johnson and QS Quacquarelli Symonds calling on the government to further extend the opportunities for post-study work. They are clearly not following the news, with reports of the financial difficulties for international students during lockdown as part-time employment opportunities dried up.

While the current headline unemployment rate of 3.9% looks rosy, it is misleading and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most optimistic forecast suggests it will hit 9.7% this year.

Data from EMSI UK suggests that the expected recession will hit sectors such as catering, entertainment, hospitality and retail far harder than other sections of the economy. These are the very sectors that students work within to fund their studies and are likely to work in following their studies if graduate roles do not materialise.

Data from the Office for National Statistics and the Institute of Student Employers would suggest that huge falls in GDP and a depressed graduate labour market both in the UK and globally mean that, even for ‘home grown’ graduates, the future looks bleak. If we take the Australian experience to heart, they have found employers reluctant to take on international students primarily for reasons of language and culture.

In the Office for Budget Responsibility pessimistic scenario, unemployment reaches 13.2% in 2021 – just as the rising number of international undergraduate students are trying to exercise their right to post-study work.

The political fall-out will be bad enough, but the potential for human catastrophe and the impact on the UK’s long-term international reputation are particularly troubling. As Bear says in the movie Armageddon when the team is about to make a life-threatening canyon leap: “Just for the record, this is a very bad idea.”

To prevent this, AGCAS, the Office for Students, Universities UK and rest of the sector must focus on supporting international students into employment, be it in the UK or their home country by:

? Getting off the fence when it comes to international students and starting to treat them in the same way as domestic students when it comes to employability.

? Acting on the minister’s request by collecting accurate representative data on international graduate outcomes and that of transnational education students studying a UK programme overseas.

? Developing a better understanding of their international student employability so they can provide existing students with more effective international careers information advice and guidance and support them into employment in the UK and their home countries.

? Arming agents, marketing and international student recruitment teams with specific employability data for all key markets and giving potential students accurate data on international graduate outcomes and the potential return on investment of their degrees.

International employment partnerships

There is another option that would alleviate some of the expected pressure. We already know from the Migration Advisory Committee in September 2018 that 96% of international students returned home following their UK studies. In addition, data suggests that while South Asian students remain keen to live and work in the UK, Chinese students are far more likely to want to return home.

As I have written previously, we are in the early stages of the Asian Century. There is every likelihood that economies in Asia will recover more rapidly and create more job opportunities than those in the West. This could be the moment that UK universities get serious about engaging with employers in Asia and creating real partnerships that give international students even more reason to return home for employment.

Universities should also begin to reach beyond their comfort zone and start to encourage their home students to consider employment overseas. If the job market in the UK becomes truly desperate, there is a moral duty for careers departments, university leaders and the government to consider all options to help young people start their careers.

This is also one of the best routes to building soft power and increasing the potential for UK-trained graduates to encourage foreign investment back in the UK over the longer term.

Joining up these dots could turn the likely 2021 crisis summer of unemployment into a realisation of the government’s positioning of the UK as being at the heart of global commerce. Their vision must recognise that a beating heart ensures that blood is pumped around the system to energise and facilitate activity. Students – both home and international – can provide that intellectual life force to help rebuild the post-COVID world.

Louise Nicol is director of the Asia Careers Group.